就業市場「凍結」。這對受 DOGE 所傷的人來說不是好兆頭 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The job market is ‘frozen.’ That’s not a good sign for DOGE casualties (2/2)

Alicia Wallace, CNN

Thu, March 27, 2025 at 5:52 a.m. PDT·4 min read

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‘Trump bump’ cedes to uncertainty

But, by and large, hiring has been petering out in most white-collar industries in part due to this recalibration, but also due to rising costs, uncertainty, and technology advancement, Shrivastava said.

In the meantime, other areas of the US jobs market have picked up a lot of the slack. Health care, leisure and hospitality, and government (mainly state and local) have driven job gains in recent years — a reflection of dynamics such as an aging population; post-pandemic returns to in-person services; and the backfilling of roles in the public sector, which played second fiddle to the private sector that was seeing steeper pay gains.

The pace of job growth has slowed during the past year. That’s been expected: The blockbuster pandemic recovery couldn’t continue forever; plus, the Federal Reserve’s inflation-busting high interest rates were designed to curb demand.

But in recent months, there has been a concerning trend: The churn that’s needed for a healthy labor market has slowed significantly. Businesses aren’t hiring as much, workers aren’t eager to quit, and those without jobs are staying on the sidelines for longer.

Economists initially chalked this up to election-year uncertainty, ongoing adjustments to over-hiring, the cumulative effect of fast-rising prices and the sheer weight of interest rates being at a 23-year high.

Once the election was decided, consumer and business sentiment shot higher, and hiring activity increased, according to an array of surveys and economic data.

That “Trump bump,” however, has given way to rising levels of economic uncertainty from businesses and consumers who are reporting jitteriness about the effect of sweeping policy actions such as broad-based tariffs, mass deportations and the slashing of federal jobs and funding.

“We’ve been a little bit frozen for a while; you’ve seen those headline (jobs) numbers, and frozen is a kind of stability,” said Shrivastava. “But the longer that goes on, the more likely it is that we’ll have impacts … like frostbite.”

Translation

就業市場「凍結」。這對受 DOGE 所傷的人來說不是好兆頭  (2/2)

（繼續）

‘Trump bump’ cedes to uncertainty

「特朗普震蕩」轉化出不確定性

Shrivastava 說, 但總體而言，大多數白領產業的招募活動一直在逐漸減少，部分原因是這次的重新調整，但也是由於成本上升、前景不明和技術進步。

同時，美國就業市場的其他領域也填補了大量空缺。近年來，醫療保健、休閒和酒店業以及政府（主要是州和地方政府）推動了就業增長 - 反映了人口老齡化等動力；疫情後恢復的面對面服務；以及公共部門職位的替補，公共部門職位相對於薪資增長更快的私營部門而言是就業次選。

過去一年，就業成長速度有所放緩。這是意料之中的：疫情經濟的強勁復甦不可能永遠持續下去；此外，聯邦儲備局抑制通膨的高利率也是為了抑制需求。

但近幾個月來出現了一個令人擔憂的趨勢：健康勞動力市場所需的勞動力流動速度已顯著放緩。企業不再大量招募員工，工人也不願意辭職，而那些失業的人在市場外待的時間更長。

 經濟學家最初將此歸因於選舉年的不確定性、持續的過度招募調整、價格快速上漲的累積效應以及 23 年來最高利率的影響力。

一系列調查和經濟數據顯示，當選舉有結果，消費者和企業信心大幅上升，招募活動也會增加。

然而，「特朗普震蕩」已被企業和消費者面對的日益加劇的經濟不確定性取代，他們對大規模政策行動例如廣泛關稅、大規模驅逐出境以及削減聯邦政府就業和資金等感到不安。

Shrivastava 說: 「我們已經有一段時間處於凍結狀態；你已經看到了那些總體（就業）數據，凍結是在一種靜止狀態」; 「但這種情況持續的時間越長，我們受到的影響就越大……比如凍傷」。

       So, the Trump administration’s shaking up of government programs and agencies has resulted in an unprecedented wave of federal workers joining the ranks of job seekers. The job hunting comes at a time when rising uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s economic agenda is impacting business decision-making and slowing down hiring. Apparently, the US job market will be facing pressure in the coming months.