作為 “避風港” 的 美國債券遭瘋狂拋售，引發對美國信心正在消退的擔憂 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Freak sell-off of ‘safe haven’ US bonds raises fear that confidence in America is fading (2/2)

Bernard Condon And Stan Choe

Fri, April 11, 2025 at 5:07 p.m. PDT·6 min read

The Associated Press

(continue)

The influence of the bond market

Trump acknowledged that the bond market played a role in his decision Wednesday to put a 90-day pause on many tariffs, saying investors “were getting a little queasy.”

If indeed it was the bond market, and not stocks, that made him change course, it wouldn't come as a surprise.

The bond market's reaction to her tax and budget policy was behind the ouster of United Kingdom’s Liz Truss in 2022, whose 49 days made her Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister. James Carville, adviser to former U.S. President Bill Clinton, also famously said he’d like to be reincarnated as the bond market because of how much power it wields.

The instinctual rush into U.S. debt is so ingrained in investors it even happens when you’d least expect.

People poured money into U.S. Treasury bonds during 2009 Financial Crisis, for instance, even though U.S. was the source of the problem, specifically its housing market.

But to Wall Street pros it made sense: U.S. Treasurys are liquid, stable in price and you can buy and sell them with ease even during a panic, so of course businesses and traders would rush into them to wait out the storm.

Yields on U.S bonds quickly fell during that crisis, which had a benefit beyond cushioning personal financial portfolios. It also lowered borrowing costs, which helped businesses and consumers recover.

This time that natural corrective isn’t kicking in.

 

What's causing the sell-off?

Aside from sudden jitters about the U.S., several other things could be triggering the bond sell-off.

Some experts speculate that China, a vast holder of U.S. government bonds, is dumping them in retaliation. But that seems unlikely since that would hurt the country, too. Selling Treasurys, or essentially exchanging U.S. dollars for Chinese yuan, would make China's currency strengthen and its exports more expensive.

Another explanation is that a favored strategy of some hedge funds involving U.S. debt and lots of borrowing — called the basis trade — is going against them. That means their lenders are asking to get repaid and they need to raise cash.

“They are selling Treasurys and that is pushing up yields — that’s part of it,” said Mike Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “But the other part is that U.S. has become a less reliable global partner.”

Wells Fargo's Rehling said he’s worried about a hit to confidence in the U.S., too, but that it's way too early to be sure and that the sell-off may stop soon, anyway.

“If Treasurys are no longer the place to park your cash, where do you go?,” he said. “Is there another bond out there that is more liquid? I don’t think so.”

(Bernard Condon And Stan Choe, The Associated Press)

Translation

作為 “避風港” 的 美國債券遭瘋狂拋售，引發對美國信心正在消退的擔憂 (2/2)

（繼續）

債券市場的影響

特朗普承認，債券市場發揮了一的定作用令他在週三決定暫停多項關稅 90 天，並表示投資者「有點不安」。

如果確實是債券市場而不是股票市場讓他改變了方向，那也不令人意外。

債券市場對英國首相 Liz Truss 的稅收和預算政策的反應，導致她於 2022 年下台，她僅執政 49 天，成為英國任期最短的首相。美國前總統 Bill Clinton 的顧問 James Carville 也曾說過一句名言，他希望自己能轉世為債券市場，因為它擁有巨大的影響力。

投資人對美國債務的本能熱潮已經根深蒂固，甚至在你最意想不到的時候也會發生。

例如，2009 年金融危機期間，人們大量購買美國國債，儘管美國才是問題的根源，特別是其房地產市場。

但對於華爾街的專業人士來說，這是有道理的：美國國債流動性強，價格穩定，即使在恐慌期間也可以輕鬆地買賣，因此企業和交易員當然會蜂擁購買美國國債，等待風暴過去。

在那場危機中，美國債券殖利率迅速下降，這除了緩衝個人金融投資組合之外，還帶來了其他好處。它還降低了借貸成本，幫助企業和消費者復原。

這次，自然矯正方法不再發揮作用。

 

是什麼原因導致拋售？

除了對美國突然的擔憂之外，還有其他一些因素也可能引發債券拋售。

一些專家猜測，中國作為美國國債的巨額持有者，正在拋售這些債券進行報復。但這似乎不太可能，因為這也會損害國家利益。出售美國國債，或本質上將美元兌換成人民幣，將使人民幣升值，出口價格上漲。

另一種解釋是，一些對沖基金青睞涉及美國債務和大量借貸的策略 - 即基礎交易 - 正在對他們不利。這意味著他們的貸款人要求償還貸款並且他們需要籌集現金。

State Street Global Advisors 首席投資策略師 Mike Arone 表示： “他們正在拋售美國國債，這推高了收益率 - 這是部分原因”; “但另一方面，美國已經成為一個不那麼可靠的全球合作夥伴。”

Wells Fargo 的 Rehling 表示，他也擔心美國市場信心受到打擊，但現在下結論還為時過早，拋售潮可能很快就會停止。

他說: 「如果國債不再是你存放現金的地方，那你該去哪裡？」; 「還有其他流動性更強的債券嗎？我認為沒有」。

              So, the upheaval in stocks has attracted all the attention, but there is a bigger problem looming in another corner of the financial markets unnoticed: Investors are dumping U.S. government bonds. The freak sell-off has worried experts that big banks, funds and traders are losing faith in America as a stable, predictable, good place to store their money. I am interested in knowing who are the parties dumping the bonds a few days ago and where has the money gone.