Recently The New York Times reported the following:
Trump
Took a Wrecking Ball to Southeast Asia’s Role as an Alternative to China (1/2)
Punishing tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and
others in the region threaten their position as major manufacturing hubs for
the American market.
By Alexandra Stevenson Reporting from Hong Kong
April 3, 2025
Updated 10:04 a.m. ET
For years, countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand
have worked to turn themselves into alternatives to China for factories making
the bags, electronics, shoes and auto parts that eventually end up in the
United States.
That is now poised to change after President Trump on Wednesday aimed his most punishing tariffs at countries in Southeast Asia.
“This is much worse than what most of us had anticipated,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Nomura, the Japanese bank.
There were no illusions that any one country in Southeast Asia would be spared, but the size of the tariffs was a shock, as many of these countries are trade partners and allies with the United States.
Singapore, a close partner of the United States, said it was
disappointed by the imposition of 10 percent tariffs despite a free-trade
agreement with the United States and said that it would engage with the United
States to understand how it calculated the tariffs.
Vietnam and Cambodia were singled out with new tariffs of 46 percent and 49 percent — among the steepest meted out to any country in the world, not accounting for earlier tariffs on specific sectors and countries such as China. In Thailand and Indonesia, the tariffs were high too, at 36 percent and 32 percent.
Mr. Trump had not previously given much air to concerns about the region, unlike his lengthy tirades against countries like China and Mexico, said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore and the founder of Asia Decoded, a consulting firm. “And then bam, Southeast Asia gets hit really hard,” she said.
The tariffs on Vietnam were especially harsh and could have
long lasting effects on global trade because of how important the country has
become as a substitute to manufacturing in China. “I’m still wrapping my head
around it,” said Ms. Kishore.
Together with Mexico, Vietnam has been the biggest beneficiary of shifting global supply chains in recent years, as companies moved their factories out of neighboring China because of rising costs and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. The boom sent Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States ballooning to $123.5 billion in 2024, the third highest after China and Mexico.
Initially, much of that trade was from companies rerouting products from China into Vietnam before exporting them to the United States. But in recent years, more of that trade has been driven by products made in Vietnam, as companies built new factories in the country and tried to replicate much of the China supply chain.
(to be continued)
Translation
特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位
(1/2)
對越南、柬埔寨、泰國和該地區其他國家徵收懲罰性關稅以威嚇它們作為美國市場主要製造中心的地位。
多年來，越南、柬埔寨和泰國等國家一直致力於將自己打造成中國的替代國家，生產物品容器、電子產品、鞋子和汽車零件，這些產品最終銷往美國。
特朗普總統週三對東南亞國家徵收最嚴厲的關稅後，這種情況即將改變。
在中美貿易緊張局勢加劇之際，這一消息對依賴該地區工廠的美國公司來說是一個沉重的打擊。有人問：接下來去哪裡？
日本野村證券（Nomura）日本以外亞洲地區首席經濟學家 Sonal Varma 表示： “這比我們大多數人預期的要糟糕得多。”
沒有人幻想東南亞任何一個國家能倖免，但關稅的規模令人震驚，因為其中許多國家都是美國的貿易夥伴和盟友。
美國的親密合作夥伴新加坡表示，儘管與美國簽訂了自由貿易協定，但新加坡對美國仍徵收 10% 的關稅感到失望，並表示將與美國接觸，了解如何計算關稅。
越南和柬埔寨被單獨列為被徵收 46% 和 49% 的新關稅的國家，這是全球被徵收最高額度的關稅之一，不包括先前對特定行業和中國等國家徵收的關稅。泰國和印尼的關稅也很高，分別為36%和32%。
新加坡經濟學家、顧問公司 Asia Decoded 的創辦人 Priyanka Kishore 表示，與針對中國和墨西哥等國的長篇大論不同，特朗普此前並沒有對這區域太多關注。她說: 「然後突然東南亞就遭受了嚴重打擊」。
對越南徵收的關稅尤其嚴厲，並且可能對全球貿易產生長期影響，因為越南已成為中國製造業的重要替代者。 Kishore 女士說:「我還在理解這個問題」。
近年來，由於成本上升和中美關係緊張加劇，企業紛紛將工廠遷出鄰近的中國，越南和墨西哥成為全球供應鏈轉移的最大受益者。經濟繁榮導致越南對美國的貿易順差在 2024 年激增至 1,235 億美元，僅次於中國和墨西哥，位居第三。
最初，大部分貿易都是由企業將產品從中國轉運到越南，然後再出口到美國。但近年來，隨著企業在越南建立新工廠並試圖複製大部分中國供應鏈，越來越多的貿易是由越南製造的產品所推動。
（待續）
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