Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:
Freak sell-off of ‘safe haven’ US bonds raises fear that
confidence in America is fading (1/2)
Bernard Condon And Stan Choe
Fri, April 11, 2025 at 5:07 p.m. PDT·6 min read
The Associated Press
NEW YORK (AP) — The upheaval in stocks has been grabbing all
the headlines, but there is a bigger problem looming in another corner of the
financial markets that rarely gets headlines: Investors are dumping U.S.
government bonds.
Normally, investors rush into Treasurys at a whiff of economic chaos but now they are selling them as not even the lure of higher interest payments on the bonds is getting them to buy. The freak development has experts worried that big banks, funds and traders are losing faith in America as a stable, predictable, good place to store their money.
“The fear is the U.S. is losing its standing as the safe haven,” said George Cipolloni, a fund manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. “Our bond market is the biggest and most stable in the world, but when you add instability, bad things can happen.”
That could be bad news for taxpayers paying interest on the ballooning U.S. debt, consumers taking out mortgages or car loans — and for President Donald Trump, who had hoped his tariff pause earlier this week would restore confidence in the markets.
What's happening?
A week ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 4.01%. On
Friday, the yield shot as high as 4.58% before sliding back to around 4.50%.
That’s a major swing for the bond market, which measures moves by the
hundredths of a percentage point.
Among the possible knock-on effects is a big hit to ordinary Americans in the form of higher interest rates on mortgages and car financing and other loans.
“As yields move higher, you’ll see your borrowing rates move higher, too,” said Brian Rehling, head of fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "And every corporation uses these funding markets. If they get more expensive, they’re going to have to pass along those costs customers or cut costs by cutting jobs.”
Treasury bonds are essentially IOUs from the U.S. government, and they’re how Washington pays its bills despite collecting less in revenue than it spends.
To be sure, no one can say exactly what mix of factors is behind the developing bond bust or how long it will last, but it’s rattling Wall Street nonetheless.
Bonds are supposed to move in the opposite direction as stocks, rising when stocks are falling. In this way, they act like shock absorbers to 401(k)s and other portfolios in stock market meltdowns, compensating somewhat for the losses.
“This is Econ 101,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global, adding about the bond sell-off now, “It’s left people scratching their heads.”
The latest trigger for bond yields to go up was Friday's worse-than-expected reading on sentiment among U.S. consumers, including expectations for much higher inflation ahead. But the unusual bond yield spike this week also reflects deeper worries as Trump’s tariffs threats and erratic policy moves have made America seem hostile and unstable — fears that are not likely to go away even after the tariff turmoil ends.
“When the issue is a broader loss of confidence in the United States, even a much fuller retreat on trade might not work” to bring yields down, wrote Sarah Bianchi and other analysts at investment bank Evercore ISI. “We’re not sure any of the tools remaining in Trump’s toolkit will be sufficient to fully staunch the bleeding.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the yield spike is not unusual or worrisome, pinning the blame on professional investors who had borrowed too much and needed to sell.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One Friday night, Trump said "The bond market’s going good. It had a little moment, but I solved that problem very quickly. I’m very good at this.”
(to be continued)
Translation
作為 “避風港” 的 美國債券遭瘋狂拋售，引發對美國信心正在消退的擔憂 (1/2)
紐約（美聯社）— 股市動盪佔據了各大媒體的頭條，但金融市場的另一個角落卻隱藏著一個更大的問題，而這個問題很少成為頭條新聞：投資者正在拋售美國政府債券。
通常情況下，投資者在經濟陷入混亂時就會蜂擁購買美國國債，但現在他們卻在拋售美國國債，因為即使債券的更高利息也無法吸引他們購買。這一異常發展讓專家們擔心，大型銀行、基金和交易商正在失去對美國作為穩定、可預測、良好的資金儲存地的信心。
Penn Mutual Asset Management 基金經理 George Cipolloni 表示： “人們擔心美國正在失去其避風港地位”; “我們的債券市場是世界上最大、最穩定的市場，但當不穩定性增加時，就可能生不好的事情。”
這對於支付不斷膨脹的美國債務利息的納稅人、辦理抵押屋貸款或車貸款的消費者, 以及特朗普總統來說可能是個壞消息，特朗普曾希望本週早些時候他的暫停關稅能夠恢復市場信心。
什麼事在發生？
一週前，10年期美國公債殖利率為4.01%。週五，收益率一度飆升至
4.58%，隨後回落至
4.50% 左右。這對債券市場來說是一次重大波動，因為債券市場的波動是以百分比的百分之一來衡量。
可能產生的連鎖反應之一是，屋抵押貸款、汽車貸款和其他貸款的利率上升將對普通美國人造成沉重打擊。
Wells Fargo 投資研究所固定收益策略主管Brian Rehling 表示： “隨著收益率走高，你會看到借款利率也走高”; “每家公司都會使用這些融資市場。如果成本上升，他們就必須將這些成本轉嫁給客戶，或者通過裁員來削減成本。”
國債本質上是美國政府的借條，儘管華盛頓的收入少於支出，但它仍用來支付帳單。
可以肯定的是，沒有人能夠確切地說出債券市場崩盤背後究竟有哪些因素，或者它會持續多久，但它震動著華爾街。
債券的走勢應該與股票相反，即在股票下跌時債券上漲。透過這種方式，它們在股市崩潰時就像 401（k）和其他投資組合的減震器一樣，在一定程度上彌補了損失。
Brandywine Global 投資組合經理Jack McIntyre 表示: “這是經濟學入門 (Econ 101)” ，他談到當前的債券拋售表示: “這讓人們摸不著頭腦。”
債券殖利率上升的最新誘因是週五公佈的美國消費者信心數據差於預期，包括對未來通膨大幅上升的預期。但本週債券殖利率異常飆升也反映出更深層的擔憂，因為特朗普的關稅威脅和反覆無常的政策舉措使美國顯得充滿敵意且不穩定 - 即使在關稅動盪結束後，這種擔憂也不太可能消失。
投資銀行 Evercore ISI 的 Sarah Bianchi 和其他分析師寫道：「當問題是人們對美國普遍失去信心時，即使在貿易問題上採取更全面的退讓也可能無法」去降低收益率。 「我們不確定特朗普工具箱裡剩下的任何工具是否足以完全止血」。
美國財政部長貝森特 (Scott Bessent) 表示，收益率飆升並不罕見或令人擔憂，並將責任歸咎於借入過多資金並需要出售的專業投資者。
他週四對霍士新聞表示： “我認為，這是令人不安但正常的去槓桿過程” ，並補充說 “這種情況每隔幾年就會發生一次” 。
特朗普週五晚間在空軍一號上對記者說： “債券市場表現良好。雖然出現了一些小問題，但我很快就解決了這個問題。我在這方面很擅長。”
（待續）
Note:
1. A 401(k) is a retirement savings plan offered by many
employers in the U.S. It lets employees save and invest part of their paycheck
before taxes are taken out (in the case of a traditional 401(k)). It’s named
after the section of the U.S. tax code that created it—Section 401(k).
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