美國石油生產商面臨新挑戰，頂級油田面臨衰退（1/2）

 Recently Yahoo news on-line picked up the following:

US oil producers face new challenges as top oilfield flags (1/2)

Reuters - By Shariq Khan and Georgina McCartney

Updated Thu, March 27, 2025 at 8:12 a.m. PDT·6 min read

NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. oil producers are grappling with geological limits to production growth as the country's top oilfield ages and produces more water and gas and less oil - and may be nearing peak output.

The Permian basin was the centerpiece of the shale revolution that began nearly two decades ago and spurred the U.S. to become the world's top oil producer, stealing market share from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other top producers.

Slowing output growth and rising costs would make it difficult for oil producers to pump more and bring down oil prices to consumers, as envisioned by U.S. President Donald Trump in his "drill, baby, drill" mantra.

The Permian is pumping 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd), a record level and nearly half the all-time high 13.5 million bpd of crude that the U.S. produced in December.

But the Permian is flagging. Since the widespread introduction of hydraulic fracturing, the technique that enabled the shale revolution in the mid-2000s, thousands of wells have perforated the Permian and fractured the rock to extract oil and gas.

Relentless drilling to reach record production has exhausted the core of the Permian's two largest sub-basins: nearly two-thirds of the Midland formation's core has been drilled, and slightly more than half in the Delaware formation, according to data from analytics software company Novi Labs.

"We've never been in a position before where we were on the back-half of the inventory story of the Permian basin," Novi Labs head of research Brandon Myers said.

That has rung alarm bells across the industry, as drilling in the fringes of the basin, on lower-quality prospects, means less oil output and more water and gas. At conferences and on earnings calls, analysts and executives are discussing the issue with a growing sense of urgency.

"We think that between 2027 and 2030 it's likely that the U.S. will see peak production, and after that some decline," Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said earlier this month at an industry conference in Houston.

Harold Hamm, founder of shale producer Continental Resources and a key figure in the U.S. shale boom, agrees. He said at the same conference that U.S. oil production is already beginning to plateau.

For now, output is still rising.

Shale executives expect oil output growth from the Permian to slow by around 25% this year to 250,000 to 300,000 bpd. The government estimates higher growth, of about 350,000 bpd, but even that would be the smallest increase in the basin's oil output since the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

TAPPED OUT?

Producers are dealing with rising levels of water and gas per barrel produced, which is slowing growth and driving up costs.

In the past decade, gas output in the Permian has increased eight-fold, while crude production rose six-fold, according to a review by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) has risen steadily from around 3,100 cubic feet of natural gas per barrel of oil produced (cf/b), or 34% of total production in 2014, to 4,000 cf/b, or 40%, in 2024, the EIA said.

The EIA classifies wells with a GOR of more than 6,000 cf/b as gas wells, not oil wells.

Energy companies market the gas. But that raises costs - they must treat it, and build or lease space on pipelines to deliver it.

(to be continued)

Translation

美國石油生產商面臨新挑戰，頂級油田面臨衰退（1/2）

紐約/休士頓（路透社）—隨著美國頂級油田老化，產水和產氣量增加、產油量減少，美國石油生產商正在對產量成長的地質限制進行搏鬥 — 並且可能接近產能最高峰。

二疊紀盆地是近二十年前開始的頁岩革命的核心，推動美國成為世界最大石油生產國，搶佔了石油輸出國組織（OPEC）和其他主要產油國的市場份額。

產量成長放緩和成本上升將使石油生產商難以增加產量並降低消費者的石油價格，難如美國總統特朗普在其「鑽探，寶貝，鑽探」的口頭禪中所設想的增產那樣。

二疊紀盆地的原油日產量為 650 萬桶，創下歷史新高，幾乎相當於美國 12 月原油日產量 1,350 萬桶的歷史最高水準的一半。

但二疊紀盆地正在衰退。自從水力壓裂技術被廣泛應用以來，人們已經在二疊紀盆地中鑽探了數千口井，分裂岩石以開採石油和天然氣。水力壓裂技術在2000千年中期推動了頁岩技術革命。

為了達到創紀錄的產量而進行的不懈鑽探已經開取盡了二疊紀兩個最大子盆地的核心：根據分析軟體公司 Novi Labs 的數據，Midland 地層核心已鑽探了近三分之二，Delaware 地層核心已鑽探了一半多一點。

Novi Labs 研究主管布 Brandon Myers 表示： “我們以前從未處於二疊紀盆地庫存量後半段的境地。”

這給整個產業敲響了警鐘，因為在盆地邊緣、向品質較低的油田進行鑽探意味著石油產量減少，水和天然氣產量增加。在各種會議和財報電話會上，分析師和企業主管們都越來越緊迫地討論這個問題。

Occidental公司執行長 Vicki Hollub 本月稍早在休士頓舉行的行業會議上表示： “我們認為，美國石油產量很可能在 2027 年至 2030 年間達到峰值，隨後有些下降。”

頁岩生產商Continental Resources公司的創始人、美國頁岩氣景氣的關鍵人物 Harold Hamm 對此表示贊同。他在同一會議上表示，美國石油產量已經開始趨於平緩。

目前，產量仍在上升。

頁岩油產業的高階主管預計，今年二疊紀盆地的石油產量增幅將放緩約 25%，至每日產量有 25 萬至 30 萬桶。政府估計是約 35 萬桶/日的更高產量，但即便如此，這也是自新冠疫情爆發以來該盆地石油產量的最小增幅。

 

取盡了嗎？

生產商正面臨每桶石油生產中水和天然氣含量不斷上升的問題，這導致增幅放緩並推高了成本。

根據美國能源資訊署(EIA)的審查，在過去十年中，二疊紀盆地的天然氣產量增加了八倍，而原油產量增加了六倍。

美國能源資訊署表示，氣油比 (GOR) 已從 2014 年每生產一桶石油約 3,100 立方英尺天然氣 (cf/b)（佔總產量的 34%）穩步上升至 2024 年的 4,000 立方英尺天然氣/桶（佔總產量的 40%）。

美國能源資訊署將氣油比超過 6,000 立方英尺/桶的井歸類為氣井，而不是油井。

能源公司銷售這天然氣。但這會增加成本 - 他們必須對其進行處理，並建造或租賃管道空間來輸送它。

（待續）

Note:

1. The Shale Revolution (頁岩革命) in economics and energy refers to the process of extracting oil and gas from shale formations through new technologies. This revolution makes the United States energy self-sufficient and has a significant impact on the global energy market.

2. The Permian Basin (二疊紀盆地), located in the western United States, is one of the largest and most productive oil and gas regions in the world. It consists of several sub-basins, with the Midland and Delaware formations being two of the most important.

3. Midland Basin: The Midland Basin is primarily located in west-central Texas and extends into parts of eastern New Mexico. It centers around cities like Midland and Odessa. The Midland Basin is known for being one of the richest parts of the Permian Basin, with significant oil production from formations like the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Cline Shale.

4. Delaware Basin: The Delaware Basin is located primarily in the western part of the Permian Basin, mostly in southeastern New Mexico and the westward part of Texas (including the area around Carlsbad). It is known for having extensive oil and natural gas reserves, particularly in formations such as the Bone Spring and the Wolfcamp Shale.

5. An earnings call is a conference call or webcast where a company's management discusses its financial performance for a specific period, usually a quarter or year. These calls are typically held after the company releases its earnings report, which includes key financial statements like the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.