美國這個重要的商業領域與世界其他國家有著巨大的貿易順差。貿易戰令其就業面臨風險（2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

This key American business sector has a massive trade surplus with the rest of the world. Its jobs are at risk in a trade war (2/2)

Chris Isidore, CNN

Fri, April 11, 2025 at 2:00 a.m. PDT 7 min read

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Service sector jobs at risk

Even within the auto industry, the center of much of the tariff dispute, service sector jobs outpace manufacturing jobs. About 1.3 million workers are employed at America’s car dealers, and only 1 million work at US auto plants and parts makers. And number of dealer jobs may fall if tariffs reduce the supply of cars and the price of cars increase, as is expected to happen.

That’s especially true for automakers which now face tariffs on all cars destined for their US dealerships, such as Volkswagen-owned Audi, which has no American factories.

“When the president says, ‘I don’t care if foreign cars are sold in the United States,’ the challenge of that is we have people in the United States employed by foreign car dealerships, you’re somehow saying their jobs are less worthy,” said Jason Miller, a business professor at Michigan State University.

If other countries retaliate in response to the US tariffs, that could also take aim at Americans services abroad. 

For example, China, the second largest market for movie box office, is considering restrictions on US films being exported there.

In addition, the European Union could place limitations on American banks to operate as freely there. It is also weighing massive fines for US technology companies.

“Push too far, and (the EU) could tighten the screws — digital levies on Silicon Valley, regulatory clamps on Wall Street or taxes on U.S. pharma exports,” said Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Loss of domestic business as well

And the trade war, and the other Trump administration actions on immigration, could also cut down on the number of college and university students who come here on student visas.

There are about 1.1 million international students, making up about 7% of students on all campuses, according to Institute of International Education. The tuition, room and board that they pay is not only crucial to many schools, it also reduces the nation’s trade deficit. But the Trump administration has been revoking hundreds of student visas, and even some students who are not at risk of losing their visas are becoming reluctant to attend American schools in the current environment.

International tourist visits are also expected to drop, potentially costing billions for hotels, restaurants and attractions such as theme parks.

Tourism Economics, a firm that tracks the hospitality industry, forecasts a 9.4% decline in international visitor in the US for 2025, led by a 20.2% decline in visitation from Canada. The firm also estimates that international visitor spending in the US is expected to decline 5%, which would mean a loss of $9 billion this year alone.

This is a stark contrast from the end of last year, when Tourism Economics estimated a nearly 9% increase in international visitors, with a 16% increase in spending by foreign travelers.

“Trump’s policies and pronouncements have produced a negative sentiment shift toward the US among international travelers,” said a statement from Tourism Economics.

 Recession risk

On Wednesday, Delta Air Lines said it’s expecting less travel by Americans in the second half of this year; the airline will cut the seat additions that it had planned for 2025 and will trim its payrolls through attrition. CEO Ed Bastian said he now sees a recession as likely.

And there will be fewer jobs or skimpier paychecks moving goods, as well. American trucking employs 1.5 million and warehousing and storage another 1.8 million, according to the Labor Department.

About 40% of the cargo moving through the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s largest, is coming from or going to China, said Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director. He projects a 10% drop in cargo in the second half of this year due to tariffs.

“We’re not going to see mass layoffs. But the amount of work will be much less than it traditionally has been,” he said.

The biggest danger to service jobs, though, comes from the possibility of a tariff-sparked recession, with cash-strapped Americans spending less and businesses failing or pulling back.

“Because we’re a service economy, services take the brunt of that,” said Zandi. “Health care, education, financial services. Every industry gets nailed in a recession.”

Translation

美國這個重要的商業領域與世界其他國家有著巨大的貿易順差。貿易戰令其就業面臨風險（2/2）

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服務業就業面臨風險

即使在關稅爭端的核心汽車產業裏面，其服務業的就業機會也超過了其製造業。美國汽車經銷商僱用了約 130 萬名工人，而美國汽車廠和零件製造商僱用的工人僅有 100 萬名。如果關稅導致汽車供應減少、汽車價格會上漲，預計經銷商的就業數量可能會下降。

對於運往美國經銷商的汽來說尤其如此，因為現在所有都面臨關稅，例如大眾汽車旗下的奧迪，該公司在美國沒有工廠。

密西根州立大學商學教授Jason Miller 表示： “當總統說 ‘我不在乎外國汽車是否在美國銷售’ 時，挑戰是在於，在美國我們也有人在進口汽車經銷商處工作，這在某種程度上等於說他們的工作價值較低。”

如果其他國家對美國的關稅採取報復措施，那麼美國在海外的服務也可能受到影響。

例如，世界第二大電影票房市場的中國正在考慮限制美國電影的出口。

此外，歐盟可能會限制美國銀行在歐盟的自由運作。它還在考慮對美國科技公司處以巨額罰款。

歐洲對外關係委員會高級政策研究員 Tobias Gehrke 表示： “如果推得太盡，歐盟可能會加大壓力 - 對矽谷徵收數字稅，對華爾街實施監管限制，或對美國製藥出口徵稅。”

 

國內業務也遭受損失

貿易戰以及特朗普政府在移民問題上採取的其他行動也可能會減少以學生簽證來這裡的大學生數目。

根據國際教育協會的數據，美國約有 110 萬名國際學生，佔所有校區學生總數的 7% 左右。他們支付的學費、食宿費不僅對許多學校至關重要，還能減少國家的貿易逆差。但特朗普政府已經吊銷了數百名學生的簽證，甚至一些沒有失去簽證風險的學生在當前環境下也變得不願意去美國學校上學。

國際遊客數量預計也將下降，這可能會對酒店、餐廳和主題樂園等景點帶來數十億美元的損失。

一家追蹤旅遊業叫做旅遊經濟學 的公司預測，到 2025 年，美國的國際遊客數量將下降 9.4%，其中來自加拿大的遊客數量將下降 20.2%。該公司還估計，美國的國際遊客消費預計將下降 5%，這意味著光是今年就將損失 90 億美元。

這與去年年底的情況形成了鮮明對比，當時旅遊經濟學 估計國際遊客數量增加近 9%，外國遊客的消費增加 16%。

旅遊經濟學 在一份聲明中表示： “特朗普的政策和言論導致國際遊客對美國產生了負面情緒。”

 

經濟衰退風險

達美航空週三表示，預計今年下半年美國旅客出行數量將減少；該航空公司將削減原計劃於 2025 年增加的座位數，並透過自然減員來削減員工人數。執行長 Ed Bastian 表示，他現在認為有經濟衰退的可能性。

而且貨物運輸業的工作機會也會減少，或是工資會減少。美國勞工部數據顯示，美國卡車運輸業僱用了 150 萬名員工，倉儲業僱用了 180 萬名員工。

洛杉磯港執行董事Gene Seroka 表示，透過該港運輸的貨物中約有 40% 來自中國或運往中國。洛杉磯港是美國最大的港口。他預計，由於關稅原因，今年下半年貨運量將下降 10%。

他說: 「我們不會看到大規模裁員。但工作量將比以往少得多」。

然而，服務業就業面臨的最大危險來自於關稅可能引發經濟衰退，資金緊張的美國人將減少支出，企業將倒閉或縮小規模。

Zandi說: 「因為我們是服務型經濟，所以服務業受衝擊」。 “醫療保健、教育、金融服務。每個行業都會在經濟衰退中受到打擊。”

              So, the White House is waging a trade war on behalf of US manufacturing sector, the fact that the US sells far more services than it purchases from other countries is seldom mentioned. The US service sector is currently enjoying a trade surplus with almost every trading partner around the globe, including those at the center of the trade battle: China, the European Union member states, Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration seems to have forgotten that the US service sector business is powering American economic growth. Apparently, the economic situation in the US is far more complicated than what Trump has imagined.