特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (2/2)

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Trump Took a Wrecking Ball to Southeast Asia’s Role as an Alternative to China (2/2)

Punishing tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and others in the region threaten their position as major manufacturing hubs for the American market.

By Alexandra Stevenson Reporting from Hong Kong

April 3, 2025

Updated 10:04 a.m. ET

(continue)

The United States is Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for more than 30 percent of its total exports, including consumer electronics, smartphones, garments and footwear and wood furniture. Around a third of U.S. footwear was made in the country last year, making it the largest exporter of shoes to the United States. Nike, the sportswear brand, produces about 50 percent of its footwear in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s prime minister, Pham Minh Chinh, held an emergency cabinet meeting with his top ministers on Thursday to discuss how to respond to the tariffs. Other government agencies convened to try to understand how the Trump administration tariffs were calculated and how they would be applied. Companies and business associations, many of which had anticipated a tariff of 10 percent, expressed hope that the government could still hold talks with the Trump administration to reduce the levy.

“I was horrified when I saw the tariff numbers on the chart,” said Hong Sun, chairman of a South Korean business association in Vietnam, whose members includes the consumer electronics companies Samsung and LG.

“We can only hope that the Vietnamese government can help us weather this tsunami,” he said.

In Thailand, the government emphasized that it was ready to negotiate and “engage in dialogue” with Washington. But it also encouraged companies to “seek new potential markets” in the face of the 36 percent tariffs levied on goods going to the United States, its biggest export market.

For American business owners such as Patrick Soong, who helps U.S. companies to design and make their products in the region, the tariffs on Thursday create uncertainty. His clients make everything from luggage to camera accessories to medical devices.

Mr. Soong and his company, Allitra, spent months looking for alternatives to China for his clients after Mr. Trump was re-elected last November. But on Thursday he was already making plans to move some production out of Thailand and Vietnam.

Mr. Soong planned to visit new factories in the Philippines with the idea of potentially moving some manufacturing there. Mr. Trump imposed new tariffs of 17 percent on the Philippines, less than half the duty he placed on Thailand and nearly a third lower than on Vietnam.

“I was planning on moving more product to Thailand," said Mr. Soong.

“I was looking at it as a next bet,” he said. “That has been disrupted.”

(Damien Cave and Tung Ngo contributed reporting from Ho Chi Minh City, and Muktita Suhartono and Sui-Lee Wee from Bangkok.)

Translation

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (2/2)

對越南、柬埔寨、泰國和該地區其他國家徵收懲罰性關稅以威嚇它們作為美國市場主要製造中心的地位。

（繼續）

美國是越南最大的出口市場，佔其出口總額的30%以上，包括消費性電子產品、智慧型手機、服裝和鞋類以及木製家具。去年，美國約有三分之一的鞋類是在中國生產的，中國是美國最大的鞋類出口國。運動服飾品牌Nike約 50% 的鞋類產品在越南生產。

越南總理 Pham Minh Chinh 週四與各高級部長召開緊急內閣會議，討論如何應對關稅。其他政府機構召開會議，試圖了解特朗普政府的關稅是如何計算以及如何實施。許多企業和商業協會期望10%關稅，他們表示希望政府仍能與特朗普政府進行談判，以降低關稅。

越南一家韓國商業協會會長Hong Sun表示:「當我看到圖表上的關稅數字時，我感到震驚」，該協會的成員包括消費性電子公司三星和 LG。

他說:「我們只能希望越南政府能夠幫助我們渡過這場海嘯」。

在泰國，政府強調已準備好與華盛頓進行談判和「對話」。但面對中國對最大出口市場美國徵收 36% 關稅的威脅，中國政府也鼓勵企業「尋找新的潛在市場」。

對於像Patrick Soong這樣幫助美國公司在該地區設計和生產產品的美國企業擁有者來說，週四的關稅帶來了不確定性。他的客戶生產各種產品，從行李箱到相機配件到醫療設備。

去年 11 月特朗普再次當選後，Soong先生和他的公司 Allitra 花了數月時間為客戶尋找中國的替代方案。但周四他已開始製定計劃，將部分生產轉移出泰國和越南。

Soong 先生計劃參觀菲律賓的新工廠，以考慮將部分製造業轉移到那裡。特朗普對菲律賓徵收了 17% 的新關稅，不到對泰國徵收的關稅的一半，比對越南徵收的關稅低近三分之一。

Soong 先生說: 「我計劃將更多產品運往泰國」。

他說：“我把它看作是下一個賭注” ;“這已經被打亂了。”

So, for a long time, countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand have worked to turn themselves into alternatives to China for factories making goods that eventually sold in the United States. That will be changed after President Trump imposes high tariffs at countries in Southeast Asia. This decision by Trump is a blow to American companies that depend on factories in the region. Apparently, price of imported goods in the US will increase and inflation in the country will go up. While the tariffs may induce some overseas factories to move to the US, I am wondering whether Trump fully knows its negative effect and impact on the US economically and on its global allies politically.

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (1/2)

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Trump Took a Wrecking Ball to Southeast Asia’s Role as an Alternative to China (1/2)

Punishing tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and others in the region threaten their position as major manufacturing hubs for the American market.

By Alexandra Stevenson Reporting from Hong Kong

April 3, 2025

Updated 10:04 a.m. ET

For years, countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand have worked to turn themselves into alternatives to China for factories making the bags, electronics, shoes and auto parts that eventually end up in the United States.

That is now poised to change after President Trump on Wednesday aimed his most punishing tariffs at countries in Southeast Asia.

The news came as a hammer blow to American companies that have come to depend on factories in the region amid growing U.S.-China trade tensions. Some were asking: Where to now?

“This is much worse than what most of us had anticipated,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Nomura, the Japanese bank.

There were no illusions that any one country in Southeast Asia would be spared, but the size of the tariffs was a shock, as many of these countries are trade partners and allies with the United States.

Singapore, a close partner of the United States, said it was disappointed by the imposition of 10 percent tariffs despite a free-trade agreement with the United States and said that it would engage with the United States to understand how it calculated the tariffs.

Vietnam and Cambodia were singled out with new tariffs of 46 percent and 49 percent — among the steepest meted out to any country in the world, not accounting for earlier tariffs on specific sectors and countries such as China. In Thailand and Indonesia, the tariffs were high too, at 36 percent and 32 percent.

Mr. Trump had not previously given much air to concerns about the region, unlike his lengthy tirades against countries like China and Mexico, said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore and the founder of Asia Decoded, a consulting firm. “And then bam, Southeast Asia gets hit really hard,” she said.

The tariffs on Vietnam were especially harsh and could have long lasting effects on global trade because of how important the country has become as a substitute to manufacturing in China. “I’m still wrapping my head around it,” said Ms. Kishore.

Together with Mexico, Vietnam has been the biggest beneficiary of shifting global supply chains in recent years, as companies moved their factories out of neighboring China because of rising costs and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. The boom sent Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States ballooning to $123.5 billion in 2024, the third highest after China and Mexico.

Initially, much of that trade was from companies rerouting products from China into Vietnam before exporting them to the United States. But in recent years, more of that trade has been driven by products made in Vietnam, as companies built new factories in the country and tried to replicate much of the China supply chain.

(to be continued)

Translation

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (1/2)

對越南、柬埔寨、泰國和該地區其他國家徵收懲罰性關稅以威嚇它們作為美國市場主要製造中心的地位。

多年來，越南、柬埔寨和泰國等國家一直致力於將自己打造成中國的替代國家，生產物品容器、電子產品、鞋子和汽車零件，這些產品最終銷往美國。

特朗普總統週三對東南亞國家徵收最嚴厲的關稅後，這種情況即將改變。

在中美貿易緊張局勢加劇之際，這一消息對依賴該地區工廠的美國公司來說是一個沉重的打擊。有人問：接下來去哪裡？

日本野村證券（Nomura）日本以外亞洲地區首席經濟學家 Sonal Varma 表示： “這比我們大多數人預期的要糟糕得多。”

沒有人幻想東南亞任何一個國家能倖免，但關稅的規模令人震驚，因為其中許多國家都是美國的貿易夥伴和盟友。

美國的親密合作夥伴新加坡表示，儘管與美國簽訂了自由貿易協定，但新加坡對美國仍徵收 10% 的關稅感到失望，並表示將與美國接觸，了解如何計算關稅。

越南和柬埔寨被單獨列為被徵收 46% 和 49% 的新關稅的國家，這是全球被徵收最高額度的關稅之一，不包括先前對特定行業和中國等國家徵收的關稅。泰國和印尼的關稅也很高，分別為36%和32%。

新加坡經濟學家、顧問公司 Asia Decoded 的創辦人 Priyanka Kishore 表示，與針對中國和墨西哥等國的長篇大論不同，特朗普此前並沒有對這區域太多關注。她說: 「然後突然東南亞就遭受了嚴重打擊」。

對越南徵收的關稅尤其嚴厲，並且可能對全球貿易產生長期影響，因為越南已成為中國製造業的重要替代者。 Kishore 女士說:「我還在理解這個問題」。

近年來，由於成本上升和中美關係緊張加劇，企業紛紛將工廠遷出鄰近的中國，越南和墨西哥成為全球供應鏈轉移的最大受益者。經濟繁榮導致越南對美國的貿易順差在 2024 年激增至 1,235 億美元，僅次於中國和墨西哥，位居第三。

最初，大部分貿易都是由企業將產品從中國轉運到越南，然後再出口到美國。但近年來，隨著企業在越南建立新工廠並試圖複製大部分中國供應鏈，越來越多的貿易是由越南製造的產品所推動。

（待續）

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Fixing the US Navy's shipbuilding problems starts with the workers, agency analysts say (2/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Sun, March 16, 2025 at 4:17 a.m. PDT·4 min read

(continue)

Oakley's statement to lawmakers this week, which featured information from the GAO's study on Navy shipbuilding, said that shipyards are largely struggling to replace the loss of experienced, skilled workers with new ones.

This issue applies, too, to white-collar shipbuilders like designers, naval architects, and engineers who "can take other jobs," Ronald O'Rourke, a naval affairs analyst with the Congressional Research Service, said.

There is also overlap with maintenance and repair yards. Oakley noted that the Navy's strategy has to focus on that alongside building, as they're inseparable and face similar issues, especially with regard to labor.

Some major US shipbuilders, especially those working on top US Navy submarines and surface ships, have pointed out the differences between their workforces today and 30 years ago: they're having trouble hiring people and keeping experienced workers.

They've also spoken to the overlap between these labor issues and other problems in shipbuilding. The Navy has often had inconsistent demand signals for its programs, which leaves industry in an uncertain place for hiring and maintaining workers.

US commercial and military shipbuilding problems are a priority in Washington right now. President Donald Trump has announced plans to create a White House office dedicated to the issue, and both his pick for Navy secretary and his defense secretary have highlighted the focus on shipbuilding.

The urgency is especially felt amid China's continued shipbuilding dominance. China boasts the largest shipbuilding industry in the world, vastly overshadowing the US, with blurred lines between its commercial and military yards.

As the US continues to prioritize meeting China's rise and the state of great power competition, shipbuilding has come to the forefront as a potential problem for the American military should the US and China clash at sea.

As it stands, the Navy's plans to continue building and maintaining its fleet will come at a hefty price tag. The US Congressional Budget Office said earlier this year it expected the Navy, based on the service's 2025 shipbuilding plan, to need about $40 billion each year through 2054.

But due to infrastructure and workforce limitations, the GAO said, "none of the seven shipbuilders that construct Navy battle force ships are currently positioned to meet the Navy's ship delivery goals."

Translation

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (2/2)

（繼續）

Oakley 本周向立法者發表的聲明引用了美國政府問責署關 (GAO)於海軍造船業的研究信息，聲明中表示，造船廠在很大程度上難以用新工人來取代流失的有經驗、熟練的工人。

美國國會研究服務處海軍事務分析師 Ronald O'Rourke說，這一問題同樣適用於設計師、船舶建築師和工程師等「可以從事其他工作」的白領船舶建造者。

它也與維修和修理場有重疊。Oakley指出，海軍的戰略必須把這些一併重點放在建設上，因為它們密不可分，而且面臨類似的問題，特別是在勞動力方面。

美國主要造船廠，特別是致力於給美國海軍頂級潛艇和水面艦艇服務的造船廠，指出了今天的勞動力與30年前的差異：他們在招募人員和留住有經驗的工人方面遇到了困難。

他們也談到了勞工問題與造船業其他問題的重疊。海軍的需求計劃訊息經常不一致，這導致該行業在僱用和留住工人方面處於不確定的境地。

美國商用和軍用船舶建造問題是華盛頓目前的首要任務。特朗普總統已宣布計劃在白宮設立一個專門處理這一問題的辦公室，他挑選的海軍部長和國防部長都強調了對造船業的關注。

在中國繼續保持造船業主導地位的背景下，這種緊迫性顯得尤為明顯。中國擁有世界上最大的造船業，遠遠超過美國，其商業和軍用造船廠之間的界線非常模糊。

隨著美國繼續優先應對中國的崛起​​和與大國競爭，一旦美國和中國在海上發生衝突，造船業顯得引人注意成為了美國軍方面臨的潛在問題。

按照目前的情況，海軍繼續建造和維護其艦隊的計劃將花費高昂的價錢。美國國會預算辦公室今年稍早表示，根據海軍 2025 年造船計劃，預計到 2054 年海軍每年將需要約 400 億美元。

但美國政府問責局表示，由於基礎設施和勞動力的限制， “建造海軍戰鬥艦艇的七家造船廠目前都無法滿足海軍的艦艇交付目標。”

              So, the American shipbuilding industry is facing severe issues, primarily in improving its workforce that start with providing competitive wages, quality-of-life improvements, and retention of skilled employees.  The Navy's plans to continue building and maintaining its fleet will be very expensive. Apparently, the US has to find new money to support its navy.

Note:

1. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is an independent agency whose mission is to "provide Congress with timely information that is objective, fact-based, nonpartisan, non-ideological, fair, and balanced." Its reports give Congress information that can improve government operations and save taxpayers billions of dollars. (https://www.gao.gov/for-congress/reports)

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Fixing the US Navy's shipbuilding problems starts with the workers, agency analysts say (1/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Sun, March 16, 2025 at 4:17 a.m. PDT·4 min read

The American shipbuilding industry is grappling with severe problems, none perhaps more crucial than the state of the workforce, naval affairs experts said this week.

Addressing the shipbuilding industry's workforce challenges, they explained, starts with competitive wages, quality-of-life improvements, and retention of skilled employees.

At a House Armed Service Committee Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee hearing, members and witnesses talked about some of the woes facing US shipbuilders, such as the smaller industrial base and erratic demand signals from the Navy, and how these long-standing challenges are affecting top Navy programs.

"To say this plainly, we must act now," said Sen. Trent Kelly, the subcommittee chairman.

"Whether through changes to our procurement processes, stronger industrial base investments, or cultural shifts within shipbuilding program offices," the Mississippi Republican said, "we need to make these decisions sooner rather than later."

A range of topics were discussed during the hearing, but the problems relating to shipbuilding workers were center stage.

The consensus among witnesses like Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval forces and weapons with the Congressional Budget Office, and Shelby Oakley, the director of contracting and national security acquisitions with the Government Accountability Office, was that the starting point for fixing US shipbuilding issues is investing in the workforce.

"In my view, nothing is more important than addressing the critical labor shortages that afflict all the shipbuilding and public maintenance yards," Labs said. Recruitment has been low, and retention difficult, especially in trades such as welding, ship fitters, and pipe fitters.

The primary solution brought up was higher wages. Worker pay isn't competitive enough, experts argued, especially for what can be a demanding job, meaning potential workers are opting for employment at retail outlets and other places. There's a decline in interest in manufacturing jobs and not enough investment in fixing that.

Other related problems are improving the quality of life and working conditions in the yards, cheaper housing, and more benefits. Upping automation in shipyards, as well as better worker training, too, were included.

There have been proposals put forward for better pay, as that's been a focus for industry and the Navy, but the challenges aren't easily solved. Higher wages invite entry-level workers, experts said, but then those yards must retain those skilled workers and invest in their careers.

(to be continued)

Translation

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (1/2)

 

海軍事務專家們本週表示，美國造船業正面臨嚴重的問題，其中最關鍵的或許就是勞動力狀況。

他們解釋說，解決船舶製造業的勞動力挑戰首先要有競爭力的薪資、改善生活品質和留住熟練的員工。

在眾議院軍事委員會海上力量和兵力投送小組委員會的聽證會上，議員和證人談到了美國造船商面臨的一些困境，例如工業基礎較小、海軍發出的需求信號不穩定，以及這些長期存在的挑戰如何影響海軍頂級項目。

小組委員會主席 Trent Kelly 參議員說: 「坦白說，我們必須立即採取行動」。

這位密西西比州共和黨人表示： “無論是通過改變我們的採購流程、加強工業基礎投資，還是造船項目辦公室內部的文化轉變，我們都需要儘早做出這些決定。”

聽證會上討論了一系列主題，但有關造船工人的問題成為焦點。

美國國會預算辦公室海軍力量與武器高級分析師 Eric Labs, 和美國政府問責局承包與國家安全收購主管Shelby Oakley 等證人的共識是，解決美國造船問題的起點是投資於勞動力。

Labs說： “在我看來，沒有什麼比解決困擾所有造船和公共維修廠的嚴重勞動力短缺問題更重要。”  招聘人數一直很低，而且很難留住人才，特別是在焊接、船舶裝配工和管道裝配工等行業。

提出的主要解決方案是提高工資。專家認為，工人的薪水不夠有競爭力，特別是對於要求高的工作來說，這意味著潛在的工人會選擇在零售店和其他地方就業。人們對製造業職位的興趣正在下降，而去解決這個問題的投資卻不夠。

其他相關問題包括改善船塢裡的生活質素和工作條件、提供更便宜的住房以及提供更多的福利。其中還包括提高造船廠的自動化程度以及加強工人培訓。

已經有人提出了提高薪資的建議，因為這是工業界和海軍關注的重點，但這些挑戰並不容易解決。專家表示，更高的工資可以吸引初級工人，但船廠必須留住這些技術工人，並對他們的職業生涯進行投資。

（待續）