羅奇堅稱，香港和中國大陸的情況仍然沒有好轉

Recently HK Standard on-line reported the following:

Things still not looking up for HK and China, insists Roach

The HK Standard- Top News | BLOOMBERG 4 Jun 2024

Economist Stephen Roach held firm to his gloomy view on Hong Kong and China on his first trip to the city after his sharp comments spurred rebuttals from former officials and what he said was a gag order during a Beijing conference.

The former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman offered a grim analysis of the outlook for the world's second-largest economy yesterday. He was also doubling down on a contentious debate on Hong Kong's future as a finance hub.

"I want to come back here and face the music," Roach said.  I've gotten a lot of pushback on these articles that I've written. People are upset about them, they're talking about them. So I am here to face the debate and exchange views."

Roach described seeing a giant "We Love Hong Kong" display on his old office building, part of a light show to draw tourists to a city that Roach said was "over" in a newspaper column in February.

He said he would debate prominent figures including real estate tycoon Ronnie Chan Chi-chung and take part in public discussions, as well as meeting corporate and former government leaders.

Roach's column triggered rebuttals from prominent figures, including Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, convener of the Executive Council.

In a letter to the Financial Times, alternative investment firm PAG's executive chairman Weijian Shan argued it was premature to write off Hong Kong as it remains appealing as a free and open society with an independent judiciary and low taxes.

In response to criticism that his analysis discounts the city's history of bouncing back from political, public health and financial challenges, Roach stressed its economic prospects are tied to the mainland.

"There ain't gonna be any resilience here if China continues to underperform, period," he said, pointing to the parallel slowdown in growth rates for the city and country at large. "It's not something that I think you can necessarily count on to persist and project into the future."

Roach warned that a growing intolerance of debate in China could lead the country astray, exemplified by what he described as Beijing's attempt to silence him at a prominent event in the Chinese capital.

Roach said he was "muzzled" at the China Development Forum in March for the first time in a quarter century after being advised, "It's in your best interest, in our best interest if you don't speak."

In a previous blog post, he said "powers that be" warned him his remarks could be misinterpreted, without identifying who they were.

Roach told Bloomberg Television in a separate interview that he found a grim mood on the ground in Beijing especially among entrepreneurs and students when he visited.

"I found a Beijing that really didn't have much of the spark that I had been accustomed to over my many years of traveling there," Roach said.

"Certainly the best I could call it was a mood of grim resignation, and you could go further but I don't care to really do that."

Translation

《香港虎報》- 熱門新聞 |彭博社 2024 年 6 月 4 日

經濟學家羅奇(Stephen Roach)在首次訪問香港時堅定了他對香港和中國的悲觀看法，此前他的尖銳言論引發了前官員的反駁，他稱這是在北京一次會議上的禁言令。

這位前摩根士丹利亞洲區主席昨天對世界第二大經濟體的前景進行了嚴峻的分析。他還加倍關注有關香港作為金融中心的未來的有爭議的辯論。

羅奇說: 「我想回到這裡，接受批評」。我寫的這些文章遭到了許多反對。人們對文章感到不安，他們在談論文章。所以我來這裡是為了面對辯論並交換意見。

羅奇描述說，在他的舊辦公樓上看到了一個巨大的 “我們愛香港” 顯示屏，這是燈光秀的一部分，旨在吸引遊客前往這座羅奇在二月份的報紙專欄中所說的「完蛋」的城市。

他表示，他將與包括房地產大亨 Ronnie Chan Chi-chung 在內的知名人物進行辯論，並參與公開討論，以及會見企業和前政府領導人。

羅奇的專欄引發了行政會議召集人葉劉淑儀等知名人士的反駁。

另類投資公司PAG 執行主席 Weijian Shan 在致英國《金融時報》的一封信中表示，現在抹殺香港還為時過早，因為香港作為一個自由開放的社會、司法獨立和低稅率仍然具有吸引力。

羅奇針對有人批評他的分析低估了香港從政治、公共衛生和金融挑戰中恢復過來的歷史，強調香港的經濟前景與大陸捆綁在一起。

他表示：「如果中國繼續表現不佳，那麼這裡就不會有任何反彈。講完。」他指出，整個城市和整個國家的成長率同時放緩。 “我認為你不一定需要預計這會持续並把它投射到未來。”

羅奇警告說，中國對辯論的日益不容忍可能會讓這個國家誤入歧途，他所說的一個例子就是北京試圖在中國首都舉行的一次重要活動上要他噤聲。

羅奇表示，今年三月的中國發展高層論壇上，他被告知 “如果你不發言，這符合你的最大利益，也符合我們的最大利益” ，這是四分之一個世紀以來的第一次「被禁言」。

在之前的一篇部落格文章中，他說「當權者」警告他，他的言論可能會被誤解，但沒有透露他們是誰。

羅奇在另一次訪談中告訴彭博電視台，他訪問北京時​​發現，北京的氣氛很嚴峻，尤其是在企業家和學生之間。

羅奇說: 「我發現北京確實沒有我多年來在北京旅行時所習慣的那種活力」。

“當然，我最能恰當說的就是, 有一種嚴峻的接受無法改變的氣紛, 你可講多一些，但我真的不想這樣做。”

              So, Roach holds firm to his gloomy view on Hong Kong and China on his first trip to the city. He believes that there will not be any resilience in Hong Kong if China continues to underperform, pointing to the parallel slowdown in growth rates in both places. Let’s wait and see how true Roach’s prediction would be.