中國的房地產市場崩盤可能會阻礙數百萬有前途的職業 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China's Housing Crash Could Set Back Millions of Promising Careers (2/2)

Chongjing Li, Charlotte Yang and Tao Zhang

Thu, May 16, 2024 at 5:00 p.m. PDT·7 min read

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Charlie Zeng, a former worker at developers including China Vanke Co., who in a good year earned the equivalent of more than $250,000, spent a year looking for work. In his most desperate moment, he volunteered to take a 90% pay cut. After 70 interviews he received a few offers, only to have them all rescinded. Although he eventually found a job, he remains pessimistic about real estate. “There’s no future in this industry,” Zeng says. “The sector’s been abandoned.”

Apartment and commercial property sales this year are expected to tank 45% from 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and estimates from Fitch Ratings Inc. The value of new-home sales from the 100 biggest real estate companies was down about 45% in April from a year earlier. Even China Vanke—once seen as a surefire survivor given its state backing—is coming under pressure, with its credit rating cut to junk status.

Consumers, meanwhile, have taken to extreme measures to voice discontent. Of 952 protests in China in the fourth quarter of 2023, 17% were related to housing issues, according to Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor project. Many of the demands centered on construction worker pay and delays in finishing projects. The country’s heavy surveillance and often severe punishment mean the risks are much higher for people taking to the streets than in the West.

Another way to measure the bleak market is to look at rental yield, or the annual return from renting out an investment property. The rate is only 1.5% in the biggest cities in China, about half that of Hong Kong and well below the almost 5% in New York, according to a report from ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. This low rate gives investors little motivation to buy a condo.

There are strands of optimism. Some local governments have relented on measures to cool speculation, scrapping buying curbs in some of the bigger cities including Hangzhou, the home base of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Another hope may lie with government-backed companies such as Poly Property Group Co., as the Communist Party asserts its dominance over all aspects of the economy. Nine of the top 10 land buyers in the first two months of this year were state-owned developers, with China Resources Land Ltd. being the biggest purchaser, according to a research note by Andrew Chan and Daniel Fan at Bloomberg Intelligence.

The Chinese government has identified two pillars of its renewed housing policy: building affordable homes and renovating run-down inner-city districts. The central bank is providing cheap funding for these efforts via the so-called pledged supplemental lending program, with about 3.4 trillion yuan available as of the end of January. The downward pressure on home prices may ease as early as next year if these renovation programs go well, according to UBS Group AG analyst John Lam, an early Wall Street bear on Evergrande who’s now one of the few analysts to have turned positive on Chinese real estate.

Shares of Chinese developers jumped sharply on May 16 on news that China is considering a plan for local governments to buy unsold homes. “Shifts in the growth model of the real estate sector can help facilitate its recovery and mitigate the severity of job losses,” says Maggie Hu, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Yet “there’s potential for the situation to worsen in the short term.”

Chances of a rebound provide little solace for workers such as Li, who’s still hunting for a job. “In the good old days, success was a lot easier to achieve,” he says. “In winter times, one needs to work much harder and be mindful of every step and decision they make.” —With Emma Dong

Translation

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曾任職於 China Vanke Co.等開發商的前員工 Charlie Zeng 花了一年的時間尋找工作，經濟好的時候他的收入相當於 25 萬美元以上。 在他最絕望的時刻，他自願接受降薪90%。 經過 70 次面試後，他收到了幾份錄用通知，但最後都被撤回了。 儘管他最終找到了工作，但他對房地產仍然持悲觀態度。 Zeng 說: 「這個行業沒有未來」。 「這個行業已經被放棄了」。

根據彭博社彙編的數據和惠譽評級公司的估計，今年的公寓和商業房地產銷售預計將比 2021 年下降 45%。4 月 100 家最大房地產公司的新房銷售價值年減約 45%。 就連 China Vanke - 一度被視為在國家支持下必將倖存 - 也面臨著壓力，其信用評級被下調至垃圾級。

同時，消費者已採取極端措施來表達不滿。 根據自由之家的中國異議監測項目，2023 年第四季在中國發生的 952 件抗議活動中，17% 與住房問題有關。 許多要求集中在建築工人的工資和工程完工的延誤。 該國的嚴格監控和嚴厲的懲罰, 意味著人們走上街頭抗議的風險比西方高得多。

衡量市場慘淡程度的另一種方法是查看租金收益率，即出租投資房產的回報年率。 根據 ANZ Group 控股有限公司的報告，中國最大城市的利率僅為 1.5%，約為香港的一半，遠低於紐約的近 5%。如此低的利率讓投資者沒有動力購買公寓。

也看到一些樂觀的情緒。 一些地方政府已經放鬆了抑制投機的措施，取消了一些大城市的購房限制, 包括阿里巴巴集團總部所在地杭州等。隨著共產黨樹立對經濟各方面的主導地位，另一個希望可能寄託在 Poly Property Group Co 等政府支持的公司身上。 彭博資訊 Andrew Chan 和 Daniel Fan 的一份研究報告顯示，今年頭兩個月的十大土地買家中有九個是國有開發商，其中華潤置地有限公司是最大的買家。

中國政府確定了新住宅政策的兩大支柱：建造可負担住房和改造破舊的內城區。 央行正在透過所謂的承諾補充貸款計劃, 為這些努力提供廉價資金，截至 1 月底，可用資金約為 3.4 兆元。 瑞銀集團 (UBS Group AG) 分析師 John Lam表示，如果這些改造計劃進展順利，房價的下行壓力最早可能在明年緩解。他是華爾街早期看空恆大, 現轉對中國房地產樂觀的分析師之一。

5 月 16 日，有消息指出中國正在考慮地方政府購買未售出房屋的計劃，中國開發商的股價大幅上漲。 香港中文大學助理教授 Maggie Hu 表示： “房地產行業增長模式的轉變有助於促進其復甦並減輕失業的嚴重程度。” 然而 “短期而言情況有可能惡化。”

對於像 Li 這樣仍在尋找工作的工人來說，經濟反彈的機會並沒有帶來任何安慰。他說: 「在過去的美好時光，取得成功要容易得多」。 “在冬天，人們需要更加努力地工作，並注意自己所做的每一步和決定。” – With Emma Dong

              So, the days when some real estate companies giving out Mercedes-Benzes as year end bonuses are gone. The housing sector’s economic heft may shrink to about 16% of China’s GDP by 2026. Even young workers are struggling to find jobs. The rental yield is only 1.5% in the biggest cities in China. This low rate gives investors little motivation to buy a condo. Yet a few analysts have turned positive on Chinese real estate and predict that the downward pressure on home prices may ease as early as next year. Let us wait and see what will happen in China’s property market in the coming months.