俄羅斯人正在接受普京在烏克蘭的戰爭 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Russians Are Coming to Terms with Putin’s War in Ukraine (2/2)

Bloomberg News

Tue, May 7, 2024 at 4:08 a.m. PDT·7 min read

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Polls show public support for Putin remains high, with 87% approving of his leadership and 76% backing Russia’s army in Ukraine in a March survey, according to Volkov. While Putin’s September 2022 order to mobilize 300,000 reservists was a “powerful shock” that triggered the sharpest spike in public anxiety in 30 years of polling, sentiment rebounded when authorities made clear there’d be no repeat, he said.

“It was like a bolt from the blue, I sobbed and asked friends for help to get my husband out of this meat grinder,” said Marina, 37, whose husband Alexander was among those called up. Now, “we decided that war is also a job,” she said.

The couple got a subsidized mortgage to buy an apartment in Moscow and their children get privileges at university and a summer camp because Alexander is on the front line, said Marina, asking not to disclose her family name because of safety fears.

“Before, it was only money that decided everything” in Russia, she said. “Now, it’s not only like that.”

The start of the war and the mobilization triggered an exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians. That created “a feeling that all these ‘smart’ people have finally left and ‘real men,’” such as skilled factory workers could gain opportunities and advancement, said Kuleshova, the sociologist.

To be sure, the harshest Kremlin repression for decades against even mild criticism has cowed Russians who oppose the war mostly into silence. The state has carried out high-profile detentions of rights activists, journalists and playwrights, and jailed ordinary people for social media posts under a “fake news” law that makes it a crime to criticize the war.

The war has revived a Soviet-era habit of people informing on neighbors, teachers and work colleagues for alleged lack of patriotism, by writing denunciations to the authorities urging criminal investigations.

Paranoia is spreading even among Russia’s elite. Many people are afraid of being accused of disloyalty and prosecuted if they say anything about the war and its consequences, according to two people with close links to the authorities.

Data from Russia’s Supreme Court show 39 people were convicted of treason in 2023, the highest in nine years, while another 730 were found guilty of terrorism, a charge whose definition has expanded to cover opposition pro-democracy groups such as the late Alexey Navalny’s network of activists.

The number of people branded as “foreign agents” by the Justice Ministry has surged since the invasion began, exposing them to the threat of prosecution.

The crackdown has had a chilling effect on Russians’ willingness to protest. The Supreme Court received just 2,000 appeals in 2023 protesting official bans on rallies and mass meetings, down from 22,000 the year before and 19,000 in 2021.

Navalny’s death in an Arctic prison in February underscored the sense of hopelessness. While thousands defied the Kremlin to pay their final respects at his funeral in Moscow, there was no momentum for further protests against Putin and the war.

Support among ordinary Russians for peace talks tends to rise only when the army experiences battlefield reverses in Ukraine, said Snegovaya, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Even when they back negotiations, many insist on retaining territories that Russian troops now occupy in Ukraine and that Putin has declared “forever” part of Russia.

Mamatov, a former political strategist, said he collects money from Russians through a Telegram channel to buy items like drones, bulletproof vests and medicines for frontline troops.

Donations grow bigger every month, he said, because people understand this is “our common war.”

(Updates with Putin being sworn in as president in the second paragraph.)

Translation

（繼續）

Volkov表示，民調顯示，民眾對普京的支持率仍然很高，在 3 月的調查中，87% 的人認可他的領導能力，76% 的人支持俄羅斯在烏克蘭的軍隊。 他表示，雖然普京2022 年9 月下令動員30 萬預備役軍人的命令是一次 “強烈衝擊” ，引發了30 年來民調中公眾焦慮程度最嚴重的一次，但當當局明確表示不會重蹈覆轍時，情緒出現反彈。

37 歲的 Marina 說, 當她的丈夫 Alexander 也在被徵召的人員之中時, 「這就像晴天霹靂，我抽泣著向朋友求助，希望能把我的丈夫從絞肉機中救出來」。 現在，她說: 「我們認為戰爭也是一份工作」。

Marina 說，因為 Alexander 在前線, 夫婦獲得了有補貼的抵押貸款，在莫斯科購買了一套公寓，他們的孩子在大學和夏令營中獲得了特權，出於安全考慮，要求不要透露她的姓氏。

她說: 「以前，在俄羅斯，只有金錢決定一切」。 「現在，事情不僅是如此了」。

社會學家 Kuleshova 說，戰爭的開始和動員引發了數十萬俄羅斯人的外逃。這讓人感覺 “所有這些 ‘聰明’人終於離開了，而 ‘真正的男人’” ，比如熟練的工廠工人，可以獲得機會和發展。

可以肯定的是，克里姆林宮數十年來對即使是溫和的批評進行的最嚴厲鎮壓，令那些反對戰爭的俄羅斯人大多保持沉默。 該國高調拘留維權人士、記者和劇作家，並根據「假新聞」法監禁在社群媒體上發文的普通人，該法將批評戰爭定為犯罪行為。

戰爭恢復了蘇聯時代的一種習慣,去舉報鄰居，教師和同事缺乏愛國主義。人們透過向當局寫信譴責，敦促進行刑事調查。

偏執狂甚至在俄羅斯精英中蔓延。 兩名與當局關係密切的人士表示，許多人擔心，如果他們談論戰爭及其意義，就會被指控不忠並被起訴。

俄羅斯最高法院的數據顯示，2023 年有39 人被判犯有叛國罪，為九年來最高，另有730 人被判犯有恐怖主義罪，這一指控的定義已擴大到包括已故 Alexey Navalny 的網絡等反對派親民主團體的積極分子。

自入侵開始以來，被司法部稱為「外國特工」的人數激增，使他們面臨起訴的威脅。

這次鎮壓對俄羅斯人的抗議意願產生了寒蟬效應。 2023 年，最高法院僅收到 2,000 單抗議官方禁止集會和群眾集會的上訴，低於前一年的 22,000 單和 2021 年的 19,000 單。

Navalny二月在北極監獄去世，凸顯了人們的絕望感。 儘管數千人不顧克里姆林宮的反對，在莫斯科舉行的他的葬禮上表達最後的敬意，但沒有任何動力進一步抗議普京和戰爭。

戰略與國際研究中心的 Snegovaya 表示，只有當軍隊在烏克蘭經歷戰場逆轉時，一般俄羅斯民眾對和平談判的支持往往會上升。 即使他們支持談判，許多人仍堅持保留俄羅斯軍隊目前在烏克蘭佔領的領土，以及普京宣布「永遠」屬於俄羅斯的一部分。

前政治戰略家 Mamatov 表示，他透過 Telegram 管道, 從俄羅斯人那裡收集金錢，為前線部隊購買無人機、防彈背心和藥品等物品。

他說，捐款每個月都在增加，因為人們明白這是「我們的共同戰爭」。

               So, the Ukraine war shows that a war is beneficial to a society in many ways. The economy is improved and everyone has more money to spend. Several points are interesting to note. The war has revived a Soviet-era habit of people informing on neighbors, teachers, and work colleagues for alleged lack of patriotism. Support among ordinary Russians for peace talks tends to rise only when the army experiences battlefield reverses in Ukraine. Even when they back negotiations, many insist on retaining territories that Russian troops now occupy in Ukraine and that Putin has declared “forever” part of Russia. Given these factors, probably the war will be carried on for quite sometime.