Recently Yahoo News on -line reported the following:
China’s Waning Hunger for Grain Spells Trouble for World
Market (1/2)
Bloomberg -Hallie Gu
Tue, June 11, 2024 at 7:55 p.m. PDT·5 min read
(Bloomberg) -- China’s appetite for overseas wheat and corn
is dwindling rapidly, which is likely to heap pressure on world grain markets
that have grown accustomed to robust demand from the world’s top agricultural
importer.
Buyers in China haven’t been observed making any major
purchases for a couple of months, according to a number of traders. With
domestic prices so low, that trend is likely to continue through the third
quarter, they said, declining to be identified discussing sensitive commercial
matters.
Global forecasters such as the International Grains Council and the US Department of Agriculture are still estimating hefty Chinese purchases over this year and next. If imports plunge, a key pillar of demand affecting farmers worldwide would be compromised.
China’s apathy over imports stems from a sluggish economy and consecutive bumper harvests. The government has been forced to stockpile both wheat and corn to support local farmers, while overseas corn shipments have been restricted or even canceled to prop up the domestic market.
That should alarm China’s foreign suppliers, particularly after Turkey, the world’s fifth biggest buyer of wheat, dealt a blow to demand last week by halting its imports of the grain for four months to shield local producers. Feeble consumption for similar reasons from China, the No. 2 importer, would only add to the market’s jitters.
“The economy is really bad, and overall demand from the whole of society is slumping,” said Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at BOABC, a consultancy in Beijing. “The government wants to raise grain prices and increase farm incomes, to activate demand in rural areas. Rather than buying grain from overseas, it is better to buy domestically.”
China has long been a massive buyer of soybeans, principally to nourish its vast hog herd, and is actively booking more cargoes. But the explosive growth in wheat and corn, which also count livestock feed among their uses, only began with diplomatic pledges made to the US during the trade war with the Trump administration.
Wheat and corn imports from January through April were actually running ahead of last year’s pace. That makes the sudden drop-off in activity all the more startling, and could leave international markets vulnerable to declines if China is indeed adjusting its strategy on overseas purchases.
In the last full week of May, the US had just 86,300 tons of corn left to ship to China in the current marketing year that ends in August, drastically below last year’s 631,600 tons, according to the USDA. For next season, there are no outstanding corn sales — which hasn’t happened in five years — and just 62,500 tons of wheat.
Although the situation could turn around swiftly, particularly in the event of bad weather affecting harvests, China’s glut of grain is unlikely to thin dramatically while consumption remains so weak. Moreover, another year of bumper wheat and corn production is on the cards.
Improved harvest conditions are likely to help narrow China’s wheat deficit from almost 17 million tons in this marketing year to under 7.5 million tons in 2024-25, resulting in reduced import demand, according to Charles Hart, senior commodities analyst at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Corn imports will also moderate in 2024-25 as output increases, he said.
(to be continued)
Translation
（彭博）—中國對海外小麥和玉米的需求正在迅速減少，這可能會給已經習慣了世界最大農產品進口國強勁需求的世界糧食市場帶來壓力。
據一些貿易商稱，中國買家已經幾個月沒有進行任何大規模採購。他們表示，由於國內價格如此之低，這種趨勢可能會持續到第三季。因討論敏感商業問題, 他們拒絕透露姓名。
國際穀物理事會和美國農業部等全球預測機構仍在估計中國今年和明年的大量採購。如果進口大幅下降，影響全球農民的一個關鍵需求支柱將受到損害。
中國對進口的冷漠源自於經濟低迷和連續豐收。政府被迫購入儲備小麥和玉米來支持當地農民，而海外玉米輸入則受到限制甚至取消，以支撐國內市場。
這應該引起中國的外國供應商的警覺，特別是在全球第五大小麥買家土耳其上週暫停穀物進口四個月以保護當地生產商之後，對需求造成了打擊。由於類似原因，第二大進口國中國的消費疲軟只會加劇市場的不安。
北京顧問公司BOABC的高級分析師 Ma Wenfeng 表示， “經濟確實很糟糕，整個社會的整體需求正在下滑。” 「政府希望提高糧食價格，增加農民收入，以激活農村地區的需求。與其從海外購買糧食，不如在國內購買。
中國長期以來一直是大豆的大量買家，主要是為了養活其龐大的生豬群，並且正在積極預訂更多的貨物。但小麥和玉米（也納入牲畜飼料用途之一）的爆炸性增長, 只是在與特朗普政府的貿易戰期間, 向美國做出的外交承諾後才開始的。
一月至四月的小麥和玉米進口實際上超過了去年的速度。這使得經濟活動的突然下降更加令人震驚，如果中國確實調整其海外採購策略，可能會導致國際市場容易受到下滑的影響。
據美國農業部稱，在 5 月最後一周，截至 8 月結束的本年度銷售，美國祇剩下 86,300 噸玉米運往中國，遠低於去年的 631,600 噸。下個季節，沒有未運出的已銷售玉米（五年來從未出現過這種情況），小麥銷量也只有 62,500 噸。
儘管情況可能會迅速扭轉，特別是在惡劣天氣影響收成的情況下，但在消費仍然如此疲軟的情況下，中國的穀物過剩局面不太可能大幅減少。此外，小麥和玉米有望迎來另一個豐收年。
Fitch Solutions 的 BMI 高級大宗商品分析師
Charles Hart 表示，收穫條件的改善可能有助於將中國的小麥赤字從本銷售年度的近1,700 萬噸縮小到2024-25
年的750
萬噸以下，從而導致進口需求減少。他表示，隨著中國產量增加，2024-25 年玉米進口也將放緩。
（待續）
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