中國對糧食的需求減弱對世界市場帶來麻煩 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Waning Hunger for Grain Spells Trouble for World Market (2/2)

Bloomberg - Hallie Gu

Tue, June 11, 2024 at 7:55 p.m. PDT·5 min read

(continue)

Feed Demand

On the demand side, China’s pig herd is shrinking and meat consumption remains subdued. Mysteel Global expects animal feed requirements for the new wheat crop to shrink by half from a year ago, according to a report from the Chinese consultancy last week. Margins at mills that produce flour for cakes and bread are also suffering as people cut spending, Mysteel said.

That means fewer imports. For corn, China’s agriculture ministry has predicted that cargoes in the new marketing year will drop by a third to 13 million tons, from 19.5 million tons estimated for this year. The USDA is still holding out for 23 million tons, although it could revise its figure later Wednesday when it releases its monthly forecasts.

But there’s pressure on shipments to fall even further. China manages its imports according to a quota system that this year would allow just over 7 million tons of corn and nearly 10 million tons of wheat at the lowest tariff of 1%. After that, duties shoot up to 65%.

While buyers will be keen to use up their quotas, the economics of importing more than that makes much less sense, said BOABC’s Ma.

“We don’t need such big imports after all, given the bumper harvests and, more importantly, the significant declines in consumption,” he said.

Translation

（繼續）

飼料需求

在需求方面，中國生豬存欄量正在減少，肉類消費依然低迷。中國顧問公司 Mysteel Global 上週發布的一份報告稱，預計新小麥作物的動物飼料需求將比一年前減少一半。 Mysteel 表示，隨著人們削減開支，生產蛋糕和麵包麵粉的工廠的利潤率也受到影響。

這意味著進口量減少。對於玉米，中國農業部預計新銷售年度的玉米貨量將比今年預計的 1,950 萬噸減少三分之一，至 1,300 萬噸。美國農業部仍堅持 2,300 萬噸的產量，但在周三晚些時候發布月度預測時可能會修改這一數字。

但出貨量面臨進一步下降的壓力。中國根據配額制度管理其進口，今年將允許以1%的最低關稅去進口略高於700萬噸的玉米和近1,000萬噸的小麥。此後，關稅猛增至 65%。

BOABC 的 Ma 表示，雖然買家會熱衷於用完配額，但進口超過配額的話, 經濟上意義就小得多。

他說： “鑑於豐收，更重要的是消費大幅下降，我們畢竟不需要如此大量的進口。”

               So, China’s need for overseas wheat and corn is dropping rapidly which would impact the world’s grain markets that have grown accustomed to robust demands from China. Apparently, China doesn’t need such big imports after all, given the bumper harvests and, more importantly, the significant declines in consumption.