「成為極權政府」：英國法官為何退出香港法院 (1/2)

Recently BBC News on-line reported the following:

'Becoming a totalitarian state': UK judge on why he quit Hong Kong court (1/2)

11 June 2024

By Frances Mao, BBC News

A high-profile British judge who resigned from Hong Kong’s highest court last week has warned the city is “slowly becoming a totalitarian state” and judges are being compromised by an “impossible political environment created by China”.

Lord Sumption’s comments on Monday came as a third senior foreign judge in the past week resigned from the Court of Final Appeal.

"The problem in Hong Kong has been building up over the last four years and I think all the judges on the court feel concerned about this," Lord Sumption told the BBC's Today programme.

"I have reached the point eventually where I don’t think that my continuing presence on the court is serving any useful purpose."

On Monday he wrote in a newspaper op-ed that the city's rule of law has been "profoundly compromised".

Hong Kong’s government said it "strongly disapproves" of Lord Sumption's opinions, calling them a "betrayal against Hong Kong's judges".

It highlighted remarks from the other leaving judges who said they still believed in the independence of the courts.

Canadian judge Beverley McLachlin, who resigned on Monday citing her wish to spend more time with family said: "I continue to have confidence in the members of the Court, their independence, and their determination to uphold the rule of law.”

But her departure as well as that of Lords Sumption and Lawrence Collins - another former UK Supreme Court justice- last week means at least six senior foreign judges have stepped down from sitting in Hong Kong since a major national security law (NSL) was imposed by China in 2020.

Lord Sumption has been much more overtly critical than his peers- arguing that the laws, which have been widely criticised as being draconian, have overridden the independent functioning of courts and heaped pressure on the judiciary.

“Intimidated or convinced by the darkening political mood, many judges have lost sight of their traditional role as defenders of the liberty of the subject, even when the law allows it,” he wrote in the Financial Times.

An 'oppressive' situation in Hong Kong

Speaking to the BBC on Monday, Lord Sumption said it had become increasingly clear that Hong Kong’s supercharged security laws were being used to "crush peaceful political dissent, not just riots."

Legal experts have for some time now warned about the city’s degraded rule of law in the wake of laws enacted by Beijing.

China and Hong Kong have defended the NSL laws as crucial to maintaining law and order in the city after major pro-democracy protests and unrest in 2019 and 2020.

But rights groups and Western governments say the law has been used to criminalise acts of free speech and assembly, leading to a near complete silencing of dissent in the global financial hub,.

More recently, the EU and the US heavily criticised as “politically motivated” the conviction of 14 democracy activists on 30 May for “subversion” . The defendants in the landmark Hong Kong 47 case face a minimum of 10 years in prison and could even be jailed for life.

That case "was the last straw", Lord Sumption said, referencing the court's assessment that organising a political primary was tantamount to a national security crime.

"The judgement... was a major indication of the lengths to which some judges are prepared to go to ensure that Beijing's campaign against those who have supported democracy succeeds."

He also emphasised the other major problem: "If China doesn't like the court's decisions it can reverse them."

Such a precedent was set in 2023, when in the high-profile prosecution of Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai, Beijing overturned the Court of Final Appeal’s ruling to allow the democracy activist his choice of lawyer.

He also spoke of further pressures on judges, describing in his op-ed an “oppressive” environment. He wrote of the government’s “continued calls for judicial ‘patriotism’” and the outrage sparked in the rare instances when a judge acquits or grants bail to an NSL defendant.

“It requires unusual courage for local judges to swim against such a strong political tide. Unlike the overseas judges, they have nowhere else to go," he wrote.

(to be continued)

Translation

上週從香港最高法院辭職的一位備受矚目的英國法官警告說，香港正在 “慢慢變成一個極權國家” ，法官們正受到 “中國創造的不可能的政治環境” 的損害。

正當岑耀信勳爵 (Lord Sumption) 於週一發表上述言論之際，上週有第三位高級外國法官從終審法院辭職。

岑耀信勳爵在英國廣播公司的「今日」節目稱: 「香港的問題在過去四年裡一直在加劇，我認為法庭上的所有法官都對此感到擔憂」。

“我最終已經到了這樣的地步：我認為我繼續出現在法院上是不會可以作出任何有用的貢獻。”

週一，他在報紙專欄中寫道，該市的法治已「嚴重受損」。

香港政府表示「強烈反對」岑耀信勳爵的觀點，稱其為「對香港法官的背叛」。

它強調了其他離職法官的言論，他們表示仍然相信法院的獨立性。

加拿大法官 Beverley McLachlin 於週一辭職，理由是她希望花更多時間陪伴家人，她表示：「我仍然對法院成員、他們的獨立性以及他們維護法治的決心充滿信心」。

但她以及另一位前英國最高法院法官岑耀信勳爵和 Lawrence Collins 上週的離職意味著，自2020年香港實施一項重要的國家安全法以來，至少有六名高級外國法官辭去了香港的職務。

岑耀信勳爵比他的同僚有更加公開的批評，他認為這些被廣泛批評為嚴厲的法律凌駕於法院的獨立運作之上，並對司法機構造成了巨大壓力。

他在英國《金融時報》上寫道：“由於受到日益陰暗的政治情緒的恐嚇或說服，許多法官已經忘記了他們作為司法上自由捍衛者的傳統角色，即使法律允許這樣做。”

香港的「壓抑」局勢

岑耀信勳爵週一接受英國廣播公司採訪時表示，越來越明顯的是，香港強化的安全法被用來「鎮壓和平的政治異議，而不僅僅是騷亂」。

一段時間以來，法律專家一直對北京頒布法律後香港法治的惡化發出警告。

在 2019 年和 2020 年發生重大民主抗議和騷亂之後，中國和香港都堅稱《國家安全法》對於維持香港的法律和秩序至關重要。

但人權組織和西方政府表示，該法律已被用來將言論自由和集會行為定為犯罪，導致這全球金融中心的異議幾乎完全被壓制。

最近，歐盟和美國嚴厲批評 5 月​​ 30 日對 14 名民主活動人士的「顛覆」定罪是「出於政治動機」。這個具有里程碑意義的香港47案的被告面臨至少10年監禁，甚至可能被判終身監禁。

岑耀信勳爵表示，該案 “是最後一根稻草” ，他提到法院的評估，即組織政治初選等同於國家安全犯罪。

「這項判決……是一些法官準備不遺餘力確保北京針對那些支持民主的人的行動取得成功的重要標誌。”

他還強調了另一個主要問題： “如果中國不喜歡法院的裁決，它可以推翻這些裁決。”

這樣的先例是在2023年創下的，當時在對香港億萬富翁黎智英的高調起訴中，北京推翻了終審法院允許這位民主活動人士選擇律師的裁決。

他還談到了法官面臨的進一步壓力，並在他的專欄文章中描述了「壓抑」的環境。他寫道，政府“不斷呼籲司法 ‘愛國主義’”，並且在罕有地有法官宣判國家安全法被告無罪或准予保釋時,發出憤怒。

他寫道: 「地方法官面對這强大政治浪潮, 需要非凡的勇氣去逆流而上。與海外法官不同，他們無處可去」。

（待續）

中國對糧食的需求減弱對世界市場帶來麻煩 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Waning Hunger for Grain Spells Trouble for World Market (2/2)

Bloomberg - Hallie Gu

Tue, June 11, 2024 at 7:55 p.m. PDT·5 min read

(continue)

Feed Demand

On the demand side, China’s pig herd is shrinking and meat consumption remains subdued. Mysteel Global expects animal feed requirements for the new wheat crop to shrink by half from a year ago, according to a report from the Chinese consultancy last week. Margins at mills that produce flour for cakes and bread are also suffering as people cut spending, Mysteel said.

That means fewer imports. For corn, China’s agriculture ministry has predicted that cargoes in the new marketing year will drop by a third to 13 million tons, from 19.5 million tons estimated for this year. The USDA is still holding out for 23 million tons, although it could revise its figure later Wednesday when it releases its monthly forecasts.

But there’s pressure on shipments to fall even further. China manages its imports according to a quota system that this year would allow just over 7 million tons of corn and nearly 10 million tons of wheat at the lowest tariff of 1%. After that, duties shoot up to 65%.

While buyers will be keen to use up their quotas, the economics of importing more than that makes much less sense, said BOABC’s Ma.

“We don’t need such big imports after all, given the bumper harvests and, more importantly, the significant declines in consumption,” he said.

Translation

（繼續）

飼料需求

在需求方面，中國生豬存欄量正在減少，肉類消費依然低迷。中國顧問公司 Mysteel Global 上週發布的一份報告稱，預計新小麥作物的動物飼料需求將比一年前減少一半。 Mysteel 表示，隨著人們削減開支，生產蛋糕和麵包麵粉的工廠的利潤率也受到影響。

這意味著進口量減少。對於玉米，中國農業部預計新銷售年度的玉米貨量將比今年預計的 1,950 萬噸減少三分之一，至 1,300 萬噸。美國農業部仍堅持 2,300 萬噸的產量，但在周三晚些時候發布月度預測時可能會修改這一數字。

但出貨量面臨進一步下降的壓力。中國根據配額制度管理其進口，今年將允許以1%的最低關稅去進口略高於700萬噸的玉米和近1,000萬噸的小麥。此後，關稅猛增至 65%。

BOABC 的 Ma 表示，雖然買家會熱衷於用完配額，但進口超過配額的話, 經濟上意義就小得多。

他說： “鑑於豐收，更重要的是消費大幅下降，我們畢竟不需要如此大量的進口。”

               So, China’s need for overseas wheat and corn is dropping rapidly which would impact the world’s grain markets that have grown accustomed to robust demands from China. Apparently, China doesn’t need such big imports after all, given the bumper harvests and, more importantly, the significant declines in consumption.

中國對糧食的需求減弱對世界市場帶來麻煩 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on -line reported the following:

China’s Waning Hunger for Grain Spells Trouble for World Market (1/2)

Bloomberg -Hallie Gu

Tue, June 11, 2024 at 7:55 p.m. PDT·5 min read

(Bloomberg) -- China’s appetite for overseas wheat and corn is dwindling rapidly, which is likely to heap pressure on world grain markets that have grown accustomed to robust demand from the world’s top agricultural importer.

Buyers in China haven’t been observed making any major purchases for a couple of months, according to a number of traders. With domestic prices so low, that trend is likely to continue through the third quarter, they said, declining to be identified discussing sensitive commercial matters.

Global forecasters such as the International Grains Council and the US Department of Agriculture are still estimating hefty Chinese purchases over this year and next. If imports plunge, a key pillar of demand affecting farmers worldwide would be compromised.

China’s apathy over imports stems from a sluggish economy and consecutive bumper harvests. The government has been forced to stockpile both wheat and corn to support local farmers, while overseas corn shipments have been restricted or even canceled to prop up the domestic market.

That should alarm China’s foreign suppliers, particularly after Turkey, the world’s fifth biggest buyer of wheat, dealt a blow to demand last week by halting its imports of the grain for four months to shield local producers. Feeble consumption for similar reasons from China, the No. 2 importer, would only add to the market’s jitters.

“The economy is really bad, and overall demand from the whole of society is slumping,” said Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at BOABC, a consultancy in Beijing. “The government wants to raise grain prices and increase farm incomes, to activate demand in rural areas. Rather than buying grain from overseas, it is better to buy domestically.”

China has long been a massive buyer of soybeans, principally to nourish its vast hog herd, and is actively booking more cargoes. But the explosive growth in wheat and corn, which also count livestock feed among their uses, only began with diplomatic pledges made to the US during the trade war with the Trump administration.

Wheat and corn imports from January through April were actually running ahead of last year’s pace. That makes the sudden drop-off in activity all the more startling, and could leave international markets vulnerable to declines if China is indeed adjusting its strategy on overseas purchases.

In the last full week of May, the US had just 86,300 tons of corn left to ship to China in the current marketing year that ends in August, drastically below last year’s 631,600 tons, according to the USDA. For next season, there are no outstanding corn sales — which hasn’t happened in five years — and just 62,500 tons of wheat.

Although the situation could turn around swiftly, particularly in the event of bad weather affecting harvests, China’s glut of grain is unlikely to thin dramatically while consumption remains so weak. Moreover, another year of bumper wheat and corn production is on the cards.

Improved harvest conditions are likely to help narrow China’s wheat deficit from almost 17 million tons in this marketing year to under 7.5 million tons in 2024-25, resulting in reduced import demand, according to Charles Hart, senior commodities analyst at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Corn imports will also moderate in 2024-25 as output increases, he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

（彭博）—中國對海外小麥和玉米的需求正在迅速減少，這可能會給已經習慣了世界最大農產品進口國強勁需求的世界糧食市場帶來壓力。

據一些貿易商稱，中國買家已經幾個月沒有進行任何大規模採購。他們表示，由於國內價格如此之低，這種趨勢可能會持續到第三季。因討論敏感商業問題, 他們拒絕透露姓名。

國際穀物理事會和美國農業部等全球預測機構仍在估計中國今年和明年的大量採購。如果進口大幅下降，影響全球農民的一個關鍵需求支柱將受到損害。

中國對進口的冷漠源自於經濟低迷和連續豐收。政府被迫購入儲備小麥和玉米來支持當地農民，而海外玉米輸入則受到限制甚至取消，以支撐國內市場。

這應該引起中國的外國供應商的警覺，特別是在全球第五大小麥買家土耳其上週暫停穀物進口四個月以保護當地生產商之後，對需求造成了打擊。由於類似原因，第二大進口國中國的消費疲軟只會加劇市場的不安。

北京顧問公司BOABC的高級分析師 Ma Wenfeng 表示， “經濟確實很糟糕，整個社會的整體需求正在下滑。” 「政府希望提高糧食價格，增加農民收入，以激活農村地區的需求。與其從海外購買糧食，不如在國內購買。

中國長期以來一直是大豆的大量買家，主要是為了養活其龐大的生豬群，並且正在積極預訂更多的貨物。但小麥和玉米（也納入牲畜飼料用途之一）的爆炸性增長, 只是在與特朗普政府的貿易戰期間, 向美國做出的外交承諾後才開始的。

一月至四月的小麥和玉米進口實際上超過了去年的速度。這使得經濟活動的突然下降更加令人震驚，如果中國確實調整其海外採購策略，可能會導致國際市場容易受到下滑的影響。

據美國農業部稱，在 5 月最後一周，截至 8 月結束的本年度銷售，美國祇剩下 86,300 噸玉米運往中國，遠低於去年的 631,600 噸。下個季節，沒有未運出的已銷售玉米（五年來從未出現過這種情況），小麥銷量也只有 62,500 噸。

儘管情況可能會迅速扭轉，特別是在惡劣天氣影響收成的情況下，但在消費仍然如此疲軟的情況下，中國的穀物過剩局面不太可能大幅減少。此外，小麥和玉米有望迎來另一個豐收年。

Fitch Solutions 的 BMI 高級大宗商品分析師 Charles Hart 表示，收穫條件的改善可能有助於將中國的小麥赤字從本銷售年度的近1,700 萬噸縮小到2024-25 年的750 萬噸以下，從而導致進口需求減少。他表示，隨著中國產量增加，2024-25 年玉米進口也將放緩。

（待續）

羅奇堅稱，香港和中國大陸的情況仍然沒有好轉

Recently HK Standard on-line reported the following:

Things still not looking up for HK and China, insists Roach

The HK Standard- Top News | BLOOMBERG 4 Jun 2024

Economist Stephen Roach held firm to his gloomy view on Hong Kong and China on his first trip to the city after his sharp comments spurred rebuttals from former officials and what he said was a gag order during a Beijing conference.

The former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman offered a grim analysis of the outlook for the world's second-largest economy yesterday. He was also doubling down on a contentious debate on Hong Kong's future as a finance hub.

"I want to come back here and face the music," Roach said.  I've gotten a lot of pushback on these articles that I've written. People are upset about them, they're talking about them. So I am here to face the debate and exchange views."

Roach described seeing a giant "We Love Hong Kong" display on his old office building, part of a light show to draw tourists to a city that Roach said was "over" in a newspaper column in February.

He said he would debate prominent figures including real estate tycoon Ronnie Chan Chi-chung and take part in public discussions, as well as meeting corporate and former government leaders.

Roach's column triggered rebuttals from prominent figures, including Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, convener of the Executive Council.

In a letter to the Financial Times, alternative investment firm PAG's executive chairman Weijian Shan argued it was premature to write off Hong Kong as it remains appealing as a free and open society with an independent judiciary and low taxes.

In response to criticism that his analysis discounts the city's history of bouncing back from political, public health and financial challenges, Roach stressed its economic prospects are tied to the mainland.

"There ain't gonna be any resilience here if China continues to underperform, period," he said, pointing to the parallel slowdown in growth rates for the city and country at large. "It's not something that I think you can necessarily count on to persist and project into the future."

Roach warned that a growing intolerance of debate in China could lead the country astray, exemplified by what he described as Beijing's attempt to silence him at a prominent event in the Chinese capital.

Roach said he was "muzzled" at the China Development Forum in March for the first time in a quarter century after being advised, "It's in your best interest, in our best interest if you don't speak."

In a previous blog post, he said "powers that be" warned him his remarks could be misinterpreted, without identifying who they were.

Roach told Bloomberg Television in a separate interview that he found a grim mood on the ground in Beijing especially among entrepreneurs and students when he visited.

"I found a Beijing that really didn't have much of the spark that I had been accustomed to over my many years of traveling there," Roach said.

"Certainly the best I could call it was a mood of grim resignation, and you could go further but I don't care to really do that."

Translation

《香港虎報》- 熱門新聞 |彭博社 2024 年 6 月 4 日

經濟學家羅奇(Stephen Roach)在首次訪問香港時堅定了他對香港和中國的悲觀看法，此前他的尖銳言論引發了前官員的反駁，他稱這是在北京一次會議上的禁言令。

這位前摩根士丹利亞洲區主席昨天對世界第二大經濟體的前景進行了嚴峻的分析。他還加倍關注有關香港作為金融中心的未來的有爭議的辯論。

羅奇說: 「我想回到這裡，接受批評」。我寫的這些文章遭到了許多反對。人們對文章感到不安，他們在談論文章。所以我來這裡是為了面對辯論並交換意見。

羅奇描述說，在他的舊辦公樓上看到了一個巨大的 “我們愛香港” 顯示屏，這是燈光秀的一部分，旨在吸引遊客前往這座羅奇在二月份的報紙專欄中所說的「完蛋」的城市。

他表示，他將與包括房地產大亨 Ronnie Chan Chi-chung 在內的知名人物進行辯論，並參與公開討論，以及會見企業和前政府領導人。

羅奇的專欄引發了行政會議召集人葉劉淑儀等知名人士的反駁。

另類投資公司PAG 執行主席 Weijian Shan 在致英國《金融時報》的一封信中表示，現在抹殺香港還為時過早，因為香港作為一個自由開放的社會、司法獨立和低稅率仍然具有吸引力。

羅奇針對有人批評他的分析低估了香港從政治、公共衛生和金融挑戰中恢復過來的歷史，強調香港的經濟前景與大陸捆綁在一起。

他表示：「如果中國繼續表現不佳，那麼這裡就不會有任何反彈。講完。」他指出，整個城市和整個國家的成長率同時放緩。 “我認為你不一定需要預計這會持续並把它投射到未來。”

羅奇警告說，中國對辯論的日益不容忍可能會讓這個國家誤入歧途，他所說的一個例子就是北京試圖在中國首都舉行的一次重要活動上要他噤聲。

羅奇表示，今年三月的中國發展高層論壇上，他被告知 “如果你不發言，這符合你的最大利益，也符合我們的最大利益” ，這是四分之一個世紀以來的第一次「被禁言」。

在之前的一篇部落格文章中，他說「當權者」警告他，他的言論可能會被誤解，但沒有透露他們是誰。

羅奇在另一次訪談中告訴彭博電視台，他訪問北京時​​發現，北京的氣氛很嚴峻，尤其是在企業家和學生之間。

羅奇說: 「我發現北京確實沒有我多年來在北京旅行時所習慣的那種活力」。

“當然，我最能恰當說的就是, 有一種嚴峻的接受無法改變的氣紛, 你可講多一些，但我真的不想這樣做。”

              So, Roach holds firm to his gloomy view on Hong Kong and China on his first trip to the city. He believes that there will not be any resilience in Hong Kong if China continues to underperform, pointing to the parallel slowdown in growth rates in both places. Let’s wait and see how true Roach’s prediction would be.

儘管伊朗憤怒，中國仍堅持對有爭議的海灣島嶼的立場

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China maintains stance on disputed Gulf islands despite Iran's anger

Reuters

Mon, June 3, 2024 at 5:23 a.m. EDT·2 min read

BEIJING (Reuters) - China held its stance on three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf on Monday despite Tehran's anger at Beijing for describing the Iran-controlled islands as a matter to be resolved with the United Arab Emirates.

In a statement last week, China expressed support for the efforts of the UAE to reach a "peaceful solution" to the issue of the islands - the Greater Tunb, the Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa.

The islands, claimed by the UAE and Iran, have been held by Tehran since 1971.

In a rare show of anger toward its biggest trading partner, the Iranian foreign ministry on Sunday summoned the Chinese ambassador to Iran to protest China's "repeated support" for the UAE's "baseless claims".

"Considering the strategic cooperation between Tehran and Beijing, it is expected that the Chinese government will revise its stance on this matter," the Iranian foreign ministry said.

China's foreign ministry on Monday repeated its call for Iran and the UAE to resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation, describing China's stance on the matter as "consistent".

"The relevant contents of the China-UAE Joint Statement are consistent with China's position," said Mao Ning at a regular press briefing when asked about Iran's protest, offering no revision of Beijing's stance.

She added that China and Iran had a strong relationship, and that China attached great importance to the development of their strategic partnership.

China angered Iran in December 2022 when it issued a joint statement with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that called for efforts to resolve the issue of the three islands.

That statement went on to stress the need to "ensure the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear programme", which was not mentioned in the latest statement with the UAE.

(Reporting by Liz Lee and Ryan Woo; Editing by Ros Russell)

Translation

北京（路透社） - 儘管德黑蘭對北京將伊朗控制的島嶼描述為需要與阿拉伯聯合酋長國解決的問題感到憤怒，但中國週一在波斯灣三個有爭議的島嶼上堅持立場。

中國在上週的聲明中表示支持阿聯酋為「和平解決」大通布、小通布和阿布穆薩群島問題所做的努力。

阿聯酋和伊朗聲稱對這些島嶼擁有主權，自 1971 年以來一直由德黑蘭控制。

伊朗外交部周日召見中國駐伊朗大使，抗議中國 “一再支持” 阿聯酋 “毫無根據的主張”，這是對其最大貿易夥伴罕見的憤怒表現。

伊朗外交部表示： “預計中國政府考慮到德黑蘭與北京之間的戰略合作，它將改變在此事上的立場。”

中國外交部週一再次呼籲伊朗和阿聯酋透過對話協商解決分歧，並稱中國在此事上的立場是「一致的」。

當被問及伊朗的抗議時，毛寧在例行記者會上表示， “中阿聯合聲明的相關內容與中方立場是一致的” ，北京的立場沒有任何改變。

她表示，中伊關係密切，中方高度重視發展中伊戰略夥伴關係。

2022年12月，中國與海灣合作委員會（GCC）國家發表聯合聲明，呼籲努力解決三島問題，此舉激怒了伊朗。

該聲明接著強調需要 “確保伊朗核計劃的和平性質” ，而與阿聯酋的最新聲明中沒有提及這一點。

So, China held its stance on three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf despite Tehran's anger at Beijing for describing the Iran-controlled islands as a matter to be resolved with the United Arab Emirates. On the face of it for China, the relationship with the United Arab Emirates is more important.

AMD推出新的AI晶片以挑戰領導者Nvidia

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

AMD launches new AI chips to take on leader Nvidia

Max A. Cherney and Arsheeya Bajwa

Updated Mon, June 3, 2024 at 7:21 a.m. EDT·3 min read

TAIPEI (Reuters) -Advanced Micro Devices unveiled its latest artificial intelligence processors on Monday and detailed its plan to develop AI chips over the next two years in a bid to challenge industry leader Nvidia.

At the Computex technology trade show in Taipei, AMD CEO Lisa Su introduced the MI325X accelerator, which is set to be made available in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The race to develop generative artificial intelligence programs has led to towering demand for the advanced chips used in AI data centers able to support these complex applications.

AMD has been vying to compete against Nvidia, which currently dominates the lucrative market for AI semiconductors and commands about 80% of its share.

Since last year, Nvidia has made it clear to investors that it plans to shorten its release cycle to annually, and now AMD has followed suit.

"AI is clearly our number one priority as a company and we have really harnessed all of the development capability within the company to do that," Su told reporters.

"This annual cadence is something that is there because the market requires newer products and newer capabilities... Every year we have the next big thing such that we always have the most competitive portfolio."

AMD also introduced an upcoming series of chips titled MI350, which is expected to be available in 2025 and will be based on new chip architecture.

Compared to the currently available MI300 series of AI chips, AMD said it expects the MI350 to perform 35 times better in inference - the process of computing generative AI responses.

Additionally, AMD revealed the MI400 series, which will arrive in 2026 and will be based on an architecture called "Next".

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had said on Sunday the company's next-generation AI chip platform called Rubin, set to be rolled out in 2026, would include GPUs, CPUs and networking chips.

Investors, who have poured billions of dollars into Wall Street's picks-and-shovels trade, have been seeking longer-term updates from chip firms to evaluate the longevity of the booming genAI rally, which so far has shown no signs of slowing down.

AMD shares added 1.4%, while Nvidia rose about 3% before the bell on Monday. AMD has more than doubled in value since the start of 2023, but the surge pales in comparison to the more than seven-fold rise in Nvidia's shares in the same period.

"While the proof will be in the pudding, there's no doubt that AMD is taking Nvidia heads-on and companies looking for alternatives to Nvidia are bound to be happy to hear what AMD had to say," said Technalysis Research chief analyst Bob O'Donnell.

AMD's Su said in April the company expects AI chip sales of roughly $4 billion for 2024, an increase of $500 million from its prior estimate.

At the Computex event, AMD said its latest generation of central processor units will likely be available in the second half of 2024.

While businesses generally prioritize spending on AI chips in data centers, some of AMD's CPUs are used in conjunction with graphics processor units, though the ratio is skewed in favor of GPUs.

AMD detailed architecture for its new neural processing units (NPUs), which are dedicated to handling on-device AI tasks in AI PCs.

Chipmakers have been banking on added AI capabilities to drive growth in the PC market as it emerges from a years-long slump.

PC providers such as HP and Lenovo will release devices which include AMD's AI PC chips. AMD said its processors exceed Microsoft's Copilot+ PC requirements.

(Reporting by Max A Cherney and Ben Blanchard in Taipei and Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Editing by Will Dunham, Rashmi Aich and Arun Koyyur)

Translation

台北（路透社） - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 週一推出了最新的人工智慧處理器，並詳細介紹了未來兩年開發人工智慧晶片的計劃，以挑戰行業領導者輝達 (Nvidia)。

在台北舉行的 Computex 技術貿易展上，AMD 執行長 Lisa Su 介紹了 MI325X 加速器，該加速器預計將於 2024 年第四季上市。

開發生成式人工智慧程式的競賽, 導致能夠支援這些複雜的人工智能資料中心(AI data centers)中的先進晶片的需求激增。

AMD 一直在與輝達競爭，輝達目前在利潤豐厚的人工智慧半導體市場佔據主導地位，佔據了約 80% 的份額。

從去年開始，輝達就向投資人明確表示，計劃將發布週期縮短至每年一次，現在AMD也跟進了。

Su 告訴記者: 「作為一家公司，人工智慧顯然是我們的首要任務，我們確實利用了公司內部的所有開發能力來做到這一點」。

「這種每年一度的節奏是存在的，因為市場需要更新的產品和更新的功能......每年我們都會有下一個重大事件，因此我們始終擁有最具競爭力的產品組合」。

AMD也即將推出名為MI350的晶片系列，預計將於2025年上市，並將基於新的晶片架構。

AMD 表示，與現有的 MI300 系列 AI 晶片相比，預計 MI350 在推理 - 即計算生成式 AI 回應的過程- 方面的效能將提高 35 倍。

此外，AMD還透露了MI400系列，該系列將於2026年上市，並將建基於名為「Next」的架構。

Nvidia 執行長黃仁勳週日表示，該公司的下一代人工智慧晶片平台 Rubin 將於 2026 年推出，將包括 GPU、CPU 和網路晶片。

在華爾街以鎬子和鏟子方式去交易的投資者已投入了數十億美元，他們一直在尋求晶片公司的長期更新，以評估支持蓬勃發展中的 genAI 的持久性。迄今為止，這種支持尚未顯示出放緩的跡象。

週一收盤前，AMD 股價上漲 1.4%，而輝達股價上漲約 3%。自 2023 年初以來，AMD 的市值增加了一倍多，但與同期輝達股價七倍以上的漲幅相比，這一漲幅顯得相形見絀。

Technaanalysis Research 首席分析師 Bob O'Donnell 表示：「雖然只有通過體驗才能判斷，但毫無疑問，AMD 正在與Nvidia 正面交鋒，尋求Nvidia 替代品的公司一定會很高興聽到AMD 的說法。

AMD 的 Su 在 4 月表示，該公司預計 2024 年 AI 晶片銷售額約為 40 億美元，比先前的估計增加了 5 億美元。

在 Computex 活動上，AMD 表示其最新一代中央處理器 (CPU)可能會在 2024 年下半年上市。

雖然企業通常優先考慮用於資料中心 (data centers) 裡的人工智能晶片的開支，但 AMD 的一些 CPU 與 GPU (圖形處理器)是結合使用，儘管這一比例偏向於 GPUs優先。

AMD 詳細説明新型神經處理單元 (NPU) 的架構，它是專門用於處理 AI PC 中的裝置端 AI 任務。

隨著個人電腦市場擺脫數年的低迷，晶片製造商一直指望透過增加人工智能功能來推動個人電腦市場的成長。

惠普和聯想等PC供應商將發表採用AMD AI PC晶片的設備。 AMD 表示其處理器超出了微軟 Copilot+ PC 的要求。

              So, AMD has unveiled its latest artificial intelligence processors plans and disclosed its intension to develop AI chips in a bid to challenge industry leader Nvidia. Hopefully such competitions will lower the cost of chips production and benefit the consumers globally.

Note:

1. Nvidia (輝達), founded in January 1993, is a fabless semiconductor company that mainly designs and sells graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia, with its headquarters in the US, also designs graphics processors for game consoles, such as the first-generation Xbox and PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Switch. Fabless manufacturing is the design and sale of hardware devices and semiconductor chips while outsourcing their fabrication to a specialized manufacturer called a semiconductor foundry. These foundries are typically, but not exclusively, located in the United States, China, and Taiwan. (Wikipedia)

2. Pick and shovel investing involves purchasing stocks that provide the goods, services or technology needed for an industry to produce a final product. This allows investors to gain exposure to an industry with lower risk by investing in suppliers rather than the stocks that make the end product. The idea of pick and shovel investing comes from the US gold rush during the 1800s. Many people were searching for gold in the hope of striking it lucky but there was no guarantee who would be successful. The people selling the picks and shovels that are needed to search for gold fared much better because everyone hunting for the precious metal needed to buy these tools. (https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/pick-and-shovel-investing)

儘管全球都在推動電池電動車，但日本豐田展示 “一款用綠色燃料引擎的誕生”

Recently the Canadian Press reported the following:

Japan's Toyota shows 'an engine born' with green fuel despite global push for battery electric cars

The Canadian Press reprinting AP

Tue, May 28, 2024 at 6:42 a.m. EDT·3 min read

TOKYO (AP) — “An engine reborn.”

That's how Japanese automaker Toyota introduced plans to cast a futuristic spin on the traditional internal combustion engine.

During a three-hour presentation at a Tokyo hall Tuesday, the car manufacturer giant announced it would offer lean compact engines that also run on so-called green fuels like hydrogen and bioethanol, or get paired with zero-emissions electric motors in hybrids.

This comes as many competitors in the auto industry are pushing for fully electric vehicles. China is revving its push for Battery Electric Vehicles, and its own BYD is threatening to outshine Tesla in that push.

Toyota’s Chief Executive Koji Sato said the “engine is optimized for the electrification era” with hopes of helping push the world into “carbon neutrality.”

Toyota already has a well-known hybrid car — the Prius — with a gas engine and an electric motor. It switches between the two to deliver a cleaner drive.

In future hybrids, the electric motor is set to become the main driving power, and the new engine will be designed to take a lesser role and help it along, according to Toyota.

Domestic allies Subaru Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp., both preparing ecological engines designed to meet the inevitably upcoming stringent emissions standards, joined Toyota 's presentation billed as a “multi-pathway workshop."

“Each company wants to win, but we can be faster if we work together,” said Sato.

But details on when the engines were coming to market weren’t disclosed.

The legacy of the car engine could be felt everywhere.

Mazda said that its prized rotary engine, introduced more than 50 years ago, was being adapted for electric vehicles.

Subaru, meanwhile, showcased its trademark smaller horizontally opposed engine. While Chief Technology Officer Tetsuro Fujinuki confirmed the company was working on a great “Subaru-like” electric vehicle, he said the company wasn’t about to dump the engine altogether.

Toyota, too, is working on stylish BEVs.

The executives said Tuesday that energy supply conditions differed globally, adding that products had to meet various customer needs and the investments needed for mass-producing BEVS were enormous.

Toyota officials also repeatedly noted that 5.5 million jobs were at stake in the overall supply chain for vehicle production in Japan nowadays, so a sudden shift to electric cars wasn’t economically possible or socially responsible.

Takahiro Fujimoto, a professor of business at Waseda University, believes electric vehicles are a key solution for reducing emissions. But they still have weak points, such as large amounts of emissions produced while making lithium-ion batteries, a chief component.

In Japan, for instance, commuters use trains, so that may be a better ecological choice for transportation, Fujimoto said.

“At the very least, I believe the proliferation of and innovations in BEVs are definitely needed. But that argument is logically not the same as saying that all we need are BEVs,” he said.

Uncertainties remain, spanning research and development, as well as social, political and market conditions, said Fujimoto.

“The carbon neutrality the world is aspiring toward isn’t likely attainable for decades to come. It’s going to be a long marathon race,” he said.

Translation

東京（美聯社）— “引擎重生。”

日本汽車製造商豐田就是這樣推出了為傳統內燃機拋出一個向未來轉向的計劃。

週二，在東京大廳舉行的三小時演講中，這家汽車製造商巨頭宣布將提供精益緊湊型發動機，這些發動機也使用氫和生物乙醇等所謂的綠色燃料，或者與混合動力車中的零排放電動機搭配使用。

與此同時，汽車業的許多競爭對手都在推動全電動汽車的發展。中國正在加緊推動電池電動車的發展，而中國自己的比亞迪則威脅要在這方面超越特斯拉。

豐田首席執行官佐藤浩二 (Koji Sato) 表示， “發動機針對電氣化時代進行了優化” ，希望幫助推動世界實現 “碳中和”。

豐田已經推出了一款著名的混合動力汽車 - Prius -配備燃氣引擎和電動馬達。它在兩者之間切換以提供更清潔的驅動。

豐田表示，在未來的混合動力汽車中，電動馬達將成為主要驅動動力，而新引擎將被設計為發揮較小的作用並幫助運作。

國內盟友 Subaru Corp 和 Mazda汽車公司都在準備可滿足生態要求的發動機，旨在對應即將到來的嚴格排放標準，並參加了豐田的被稱為 “多途徑研討會” 的演講。

佐藤說: 「每家公司都想獲勝，但如果我們共同努力，我們就能更快」。

但有關發動機何時上市的細節並未透露。

汽車引擎的残留痕跡隨處可見。

Mazda表示，其 50 多年前推出的備受推崇的轉子引擎正在應用於電動車。

同時，Subaru 展示了其標誌性的小型水平對臥引擎。雖然首席技術長 Tetsuro Fujinuki 證實該公司正在開發一款出色的「Subaru式」電動車，但亦表示該公司不打算完全放棄使用引擎。

豐田也在開發時尚的純電動車 (BEVs)。

這些高層週二表示，全球能源供應狀況各不相同，產品必須滿足不同的客戶需求，大規模生產BEVs所需的投資龐大。

豐田官員也多次指出，目前日本汽車生產的整個供應鏈有 550 萬個工作機會受到威脅，因此突然轉向電動車在經濟上是不可能的，也是對社會不負責任。

早稻田大學商學院教授藤本隆宏(Takahiro Fujimoto)認為，電動車是減少排放的關鍵解決方案。但它們仍然存在弱點，例如在製造主要零件鋰離子電池時會產生大量排放。

藤本說，例如在日本，通勤者使用火車，因此這可能是更好的生態交通選擇。

他說: 「至少，我相信純電動車的普及和創新絕對是必要的。但這種說法在邏輯上並不等於說我們需要的只是純電動車」。

藤本表示，研究和開發, 以及社會、政治和市場條件方面仍然存在不確定性。

他說: 「世界所渴望的碳中和在未來幾十年內不太可能實現。這將是一場漫長的馬拉松比賽」。

              So, in Japan car manufacturer giants announce that, as an alternative to BEVs, they would offer lean compact engines that also run on so-called green fuels like hydrogen and bioethanol. Some Japanese hold the opinion that while the proliferation of and innovations in BEVs are needed, yet it is not logically the same as saying that all we need are just BEVs, and are offering engine alternatives so as to prove the existence of “multi-pathway”. Indeed, globally, some manufactures are trying engines that use hydrogen to run.

 Note:

1. The Mazda Wankel engines (萬事得轉子引擎) are a family of Wankel rotary combustion car engines produced by Mazda. Wankel engines were invented in 1950s by Felix Wankel, a German engineer. Over the years, displacement has been increased and turbocharging has been added. Mazda rotary engines have a reputation for being relatively small and powerful at the expense of poor fuel efficiency. (Wikipedia)

2.  Battery Electric Vehicles, also called BEVs and more frequently called EVs, are fully electric vehicles with rechargeable batteries and no gasoline engine. All energy to run the vehicle comes from the battery pack which is recharged from the grid. (https://www.evgo.com/ev-drivers/types-of-evs/#bevs)

中國又向晶片產業注資475億美元

Recently CNN on-line reported the following:

China is pumping another $47.5 billion into its chip industry

Laura He, CNN

Mon, May 27, 2024 at 6:28 a.m. EDT·3 min read

China is doubling down on its plan to dominate advanced technologies of the future by setting up its largest-ever semiconductor state investment fund, according to information posted by a government-run agency.

Worth $47.5 billion, the fund is being created as the US imposes sweeping restrictions on the export of American chips and chip technology in a bid to throttle Beijing’s ambitions.

With investments from six of the country’s largest state-owned banks, including ICBC and China Construction Bank, the fund underscores Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s push to bolster China’s position as a tech superpower.

With its Made in China 2025 road map, Beijing has set a target for China to become a global leader in a wide range of industries, including artificial intelligence (AI), 5G wireless, and quantum computing.

The latest investment vehicle is the third phase of the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund. The “Big Fund,” as it is known, was officially established in Beijing on Friday, according to the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System.

The first phase of the fund was set up in 2014 with 138.7 billion yuan ($19.2 billion). The second phase was established five years later, with a registered capital of 204.1 billion yuan ($28.2 billion).

The investments aim to bring the country’s semiconductor industry up to international standards by 2030 and will pump money primarily into chip manufacturing, design, equipment and materials, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said when launching the first phase in 2014.

Roadblocks ahead?

The “Big Fund” has been hit by corruption scandals in recent years. In 2022, the country’s anti-graft watchdog launched a crackdown on the semiconductor industry, investigating some of China’s top figures in state-owned chip companies. Lu Jun, former chief executive of Sino IC Capital, which managed the “Big Fund,” was probed and indicted on bribery charges in March, according to a statement by the country’s top prosecutor.

These scandals aren’t the only roadblocks that could severely undermined Xi’s ambitions to get China to achieve tech self-reliance.

In October 2022, the US unveiled a sweeping set of export controls that ban Chinese companies from buying advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license. The Biden administration has also pressed its allies, including Netherlands and Japan, to enact their own restrictions.

Beijing hit back last year by imposing export controls on two strategic raw materials that are critical to the global chipmaking industry.

The new chip fund is not only a defensive move to counter Western sanctions, but also part of Xi’s long-held ambitions to make China a global leader in technology.

Last year, China’s Huawei shocked industry experts by introducing a new smartphone powered by a 7-nanometer processor made by China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC).

At the time of the Huawei phone launch, analysts could not understand how the company would have the technology to make such a chip following sweeping efforts by the United States to restrict China’s access to foreign technology.

In a meeting with the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in March, Xi said that “no force can stop China’s scientific and technological development.”

The Netherlands is home to ASML, the world’s sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to make advanced semiconductors. The company said in January that it had been prohibited by the Dutch government from shipping some of its lithography machines to China.

Translation

政府機構發布的消息顯示，中國透過設立其有史以來最大的半導體國家投資基金, 正在加倍努力計劃主導未來的先進技術。

該基金價值 475 億美元，是在美國對美國晶片和晶片技術的出口實施全面限制, 以遏制北京的野心之際而成立的。

該基金由中國工商銀行和中國建設銀行等中國最大的六家國有銀行投資，凸顯了中國領導人習近平推動鞏固中國科技超級大國地位的努力。

北京透過《中國製造2025》路線圖設定了目標，讓中國成為人工智慧(AI)、5G無線和量子運算等多個產業的全球領導者。

最新的投資工具是中國積體電路產業投資基金三期。根據国家企业信用信息公示系统顯示，這眾所周知的「大基金」週五在北京正式成立。

該基金第一期於 2014 年設立，規模為 1,387 億元（192 億美元）。五年後第二期成立，註冊資本為2,041億元人民幣（282億美元）。

工業和資訊化部在2014年啟動第一階段時表示，這些投資旨在到2030年使中國的半導體產業達到國際標準，並將主要向晶片製造、設計、設備和材料注入資金。

前面的路障？

「大基金」近年來飽受貪腐醜聞打擊。 2022年，中國反腐敗監管機構發起了對半導體產業的整顿，對中國國有晶片公司的一些高層人物進行了調查。據中國最高檢察官的聲明稱，管理「大基金」的 Sino IC Capital 前執行長Lu Jun於三月因受賄罪受到調查並被起訴。

這些醜聞並不是可能嚴重削弱習近平讓中國實現科技自力更生雄心的唯一障礙。

2022年10月，美國推出了一套全面的出口管制措施，禁止中國企業在未經許可的情況下購買先進晶片和晶片製造設備。拜登政府也向包括荷蘭和日本在內的盟友施壓，要求制定自己的管制措施。

去年，北京方進行了反擊, 對兩種對全球晶片製造業至關重要的戰略原料實施了出口管制，。

新的晶片基金不僅是對抗西方制裁的防禦性舉措，也是習近平長期以來讓中國成為全球技術領導者的壯志的一部分。

去年，中國華為推出了一款採用中國中芯國際製造的 7 奈米處理器的新型智慧型手機，震驚了行業中的專家。

在華為手機推出時，分析師無法理解，在美國全面限制中國取得外國技術的情況下，該公司如何擁有製造這種晶片的技術。

今年3月，習近平在會見荷蘭首相 Mark Rutte 時表示，「任何力量都無法阻擋中國科技發展的腳步」。

荷蘭是 ASML公司的所在地，ASML是世界上唯一一家生產先進半導體所需的極紫外光刻機的製造商。該公司一月表示，荷蘭政府禁止其向中國運送部分光刻機。

              So, China is doubling down on its plan to dominate advanced technologies by setting up the largest-ever semiconductor state investment fund. This move reflects Xi’s long-held ambitions to make China a global leader in advanced technology in chips making. This is good news for future consumers as competition will lower the price of chips eventually.

中國房地產：分析師表示，在買家信心低迷的情況下，「平淡」的刺激措施無法實現市場的復甦 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China property: 'underwhelming' stimulus to fall short of refloating market amid sunken buyer confidence, analysts say (2/2)

South China Morning Post

Sat, May 25, 2024 at 2:30 a.m. PDT·9 min read

(continue)

It will not be easy, according to economists, analysts and industry players, who cite broader economic expectations, fundamental demographic changes and the changing consumption behaviour of prospective buyers.

"The stimulus policies are encouraging for stabilizing the market, but it is not enough to change the expectations of homebuyers," said Zhu Ning, a professor of finance at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and author of China's Guaranteed Bubble.

"Unless there is speculative demand driven by strong expectations that prices will rise, buyers, except those buying for their own use, will not buy at this level of prices, which are still high if compared with their income."

Despite more than 70 measures to ease property distress over the first four months of 2024, home transactions have continued to slide. Sales by the top 100 developers in that period dropped 44.9 per cent year on year to 312.2 billion yuan, according to data from China Real Estate Information Corporation.

Prices of existing homes in March were down 23.9 per cent from a high in July 2021, according to data compiled by the Beike Research Institute based on a sample of 50 large cities.

"The myth that home prices will only rise has been broken over the past three years," said Zhu, who as early as 2016 called the property market a "bubble".

Back then, developers including China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings were in a building frenzy driven by a nationwide "shantytown" redevelopment policy that aimed to raze and replace subpar housing across China. The policy offered subsidies for homeowners in lower-tier cities to buy new homes, and helped push prices to record highs, benefiting both homeowners and speculative investors.

Now, few expect quick improvement. "It will be a long time before we see home prices rise to levels as high as in 2017 and 2018, unless there is dramatic inflation or quantitative easing," Zhu said.

"The United States took six to seven years to get out of the woods of an economic recession brought about by a property crisis, while Japan took 20 years. And we are somewhere in between."

The craze for homebuying has passed, replaced by households selling their homes in favour of renting, cutting their mortgage exposure amid the risk of decreased income in the slow economy.

Meanwhile, household savings have surged, growing by 16.67 trillion yuan or nearly 14 per cent in 2023, compared with 2022, according to the People's Bank of China.

Linda Chen, a former teacher, now marketer, sold her 753 sq ft home in the eastern metropolis of Hangzhou at a discount of about 300,000 yuan in December, moving into a rented unit of similar size with her husband.

For years she had paid about 9,000 yuan a month for her mortgage, and was still paying 7,000 despite several rounds of mortgage rate cuts by the authorities last year. "The house had become a huge burden for us, and we knew we must sell no matter what the price was," Chen said.

"The [government's] countercyclical measures are not effective any more," said Raymond Yeung, chief economist at ANZ Research, adding that the link between rate cuts and rising property sales has been severed since 2022.

"The shock from the pandemic, diminishing economic optimism and the lack of confidence in real estate as a store of wealth have affected the prospects of property investment."

Declines in marriage registrations, the birth rate and rural-urban migration represent major structural headwinds for demand, and are unlikely to reverse in at least the next five to 10 years, analysts from BNP Paribas warned in a May 21 report.

"We believe the current demand-supply dynamics make it very difficult to see a substantial rebound in home purchases to a level that would help to quickly digest market inventories," they said.

"Personal experience has a great impact on one's risk appetite and investment decisions," Zhu said, adding that the past few years have taught young Chinese two lessons. First, young couples saw the risks of home delivery as they got nothing even after emptying "six wallets" - their own plus those of their parents. Second, they learned that even those lucky enough to get their homes could find themselves out of work and unable to afford loans.

"They once regretted not buying a home earlier when they saw their friends earning [from appreciation]," he said. "But now they are like, 'Thank God I didn't buy'."

Translation

（繼續）

經濟學家、分析師和業內人士表示，這並不容易，他們引用了更廣泛的經濟預期、基本的人口變化, 以及潛在買家不斷變化的消費行為。

上海交通大學上海高級金融學院金融學教授、《中國保證會出现的泡沫》一書作者 Zhu Ning 表示： “刺激政策對於穩定市場是令人鼓舞的，但不足以改變購房者的預期” 。

“除非對價格上漲的強烈預期推動了投機需求，否則買家，除了自用的買家，不會以這樣的價格水平購買，與他們的收入相比，這個價格仍然很高。”

儘管 2024 年最前四個月出台了 70 多項緩解房地產困境的措施，但房屋交易仍持續下滑。中國房地產資訊集團 的數據顯示，同期一百大開發商銷售額年減44.9%至3,122億元。

根據 Beike 研究院基於50個大城市樣本編製的數據顯示，3月份成屋價格較2021年7月的高點下降了23.9%。

Zhu說: 「房價只會上漲的迷思在過去三年已經被打破」，他早在2016年就稱房地產市場為「泡沫」。

當時，中國恆大集團和碧桂園控股等開發商在全國範圍內的「棚戶區」改造政策的推動下掀起了一場建設熱潮，該政策旨在拆除和更換中國各地的劣質住房。該政策為低線城市的房主購買新房子提供補貼，並幫助推動房價創下歷史新高，使房主和投機投資者都受益。

現在，很少有人予期有快速改善。Zhu 說： “除非出現劇烈的通膨或量化寬鬆，否則我們需要很長時間才能看到房價升至2017年和2018年的水平。”

“美國花了六到七年的時間才擺脫了房地產危機帶來的經濟衰退的困境，而日本則花了20年的時間。而我們則介於兩者之間。”

購屋熱潮已經過去，取代的是家庭出售房屋以租房代之，在經濟低迷帶來收入下降的風險下, 減少了抵押貸款風險。

同時，中國人民銀行的數據顯示，2023年居民儲蓄大幅增加16.67兆元，較2022年成長近14%。

Linda Chen 曾是一名教師，現在是營銷人員，去年12月，她以約30萬元的折扣賣掉了自己在東部大都市杭州的753平方英尺的房子，並與丈夫搬進了一套類似面積的出租單位。

多年來，她每月支付約9,000元的抵押貸款，儘管去年當局多次下調抵押貸款利率，但她仍在支付7,000元。Chen 說: 「房子對我們來說已經成為一個巨大的負擔，我們知道無論價格多少我們都必須賣掉」。

澳新銀行研究部首席經濟學家 Raymond Yeung 表示：「（政府）反週期措施不再有效」, 他補充說，自 2022 年以來，降息與房地產銷售成長之間的關係已被切斷。

“疫情帶來的衝擊、經濟樂觀情緒的減弱, 以及人們對房地產作為財富儲存手段缺乏信心，影響了房地產投資的前景。”

法國巴黎銀行分析師在5 月21 日的一份報告中警告說，婚姻登記、出生率和農村人口向城市遷移的下降是需求的主要結構性阻力，並且至少在未來5 到10 年內不太可能逆轉。

他們表示： “我們認為，當前的供需動態, 很難使購房量大幅反彈至一水平有助於快速消化市場庫存。”

Zhu 說：「個人經驗對一個人的風險偏好和投資決策有很大影響」。他又補充說，過去幾年給中國年輕人兩個教訓。首先，年輕夫婦看到了送貨上門的風險，因為他們掏空了自己加上父母的「六個錢包」後卻一無所獲。其次，他們了解到，即使是那些足夠幸運獲得住房的人也可能會發現自己失業並且無力償還貸款。

他說: 「當他們看到朋友（從升值中）賺到錢時，他們曾經後悔沒有早點買房」; 「但現在他們會感到， “謝天謝地我沒有買” 」。

              So, some experts expect that the government's countercyclical measures are not effective any more. The shock from the pandemic, diminishing economic optimism and the lack of confidence in real estate as a store of wealth have affected the prospects of property investment. Furthermore, declines in marriage registrations, birth rate and rural-urban migration represent major structural headwinds for demand. They believe the current demand-supply dynamics make it very difficult to see a substantial rebound in home purchases.

Note:

1. China's Guaranteed Bubble《中國保證會出现的泡沫》 is a book written by Ning Zhu in 2016. According to Google Books, the book suggests that in recent years, the Chinese economy has been fueled by the implicit guarantee to both major banks and local governments by the nation’s central government. The resultant bubble has led to the emergence of a large shadow banking industry that poses major risks to China’s real estate market, speculative stock investments, state-owned enterprises, and more. This book, written by renowned financial scholar Ning Zhu, provides a provocative in-depth analysis of China’s current economic practices—and the profound dangers they pose—as well as a powerful wake-up call to investors, regulators, and the entire financial industry. (https://books.google.ca/books/about/China_s_Guaranteed_Bubble.html?id)