Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:
世界の人口 80億人突破 インドやアフリカなどで増加が顕著に
2022年11月15日 5時00分
国連によりますと、世界の人口が15日、80億人を突破します。人口の増加はインドやアフリカ諸国などで著しく、来年にはインドが中国を抜いて世界で最も人口が多くなるとみられています。
世界の人口は、平均寿命の伸びや母子の死亡率の低下を背景に増加を続けていて、この12年でおよそ10億人増え、国連は15日、80億人を突破するとしています。
国連によりますと、南アジアの一部の国やアフリカなどでは今後も人口の大幅な増加が見込まれていて、来年にはインドが中国を上回り、世界で最も人口が多くなるとみられています。
また、今後2050年までに増える世界の人口の半数以上は、アフリカのサハラ砂漠以南の国々になる見通しだということです。
一方で日本を含む61の国や地域では、出生率の低下などから2050年までにそれぞれ人口が1％以上減少すると、予測されています。
世界全体の人口増加のペースも徐々に鈍っていて、2080年代におよそ104億人のピークを迎えたあとは、減少に転じる可能性があるとみられています。
国連の経済社会局は、人口が急速に増加している国では若者の教育や就労機会の確保が必要だとする一方、人口の増加が見込めない国では少子高齢化などに備える必要があると指摘しています。
2050年までに人口が大幅に増加するのは8か国
国連は、今後2050年までに人口が大幅に増加する国として、インド、ナイジェリア、パキスタン、コンゴ民主共和国、エチオピア、エジプト、フィリピン、タンザニアの8か国をあげています。
こうした国々で大幅な人口の増加が見込まれる要因として、国連は平均寿命が伸びる一方で、乳幼児などの死亡率が低下していることをあげています。
一方で急速な人口の増加や高い出生率が続くことについて、国連の経済社会局は、子どもたちへの教育が追いつかず、社会の発展を妨げるおそれがあるとしています。
そのうえで、ジェンダーの平等などを推進することで、高すぎる出生率をより安定したレベルに移行させることが可能になるとしています。
インドの人口増加の背景は
インドの現在の人口はおよそ14億人。
政府は1950年代以降、人口を抑制するため、夫婦の子どもを2人までとすることなどを目標にした政策を展開し、避妊手術なども行われましたが、現在は国としての厳格な制限はありません。
人口は最近毎年1％増えていて、背景の1つには衛生環境の改善などによる乳幼児の死亡率の低下があるとみられています。
政府の統計によりますと、乳幼児が亡くなる割合は2000年には1000人当たり68人でしたが、2020年には28人へと大幅に減っています。
それに加えて、高い経済成長が続く中、平均寿命も1970年代前半には49.7歳だったのが、2000年代後半には69.7歳へと、20年も長くなっています。
人口構成も、これから子どもを持つことが想定される若年層の割合が高い「釣り鐘型」になっていることなどから、当面は人口の増加が続くとみられていて、2050年には16億人を超えるという推計も出ています。
2050年までには4人に1人がアフリカの人々と予測
人口増加の波はアフリカにも押し寄せていて、国連によりますと2022年のアフリカの人口は14億人余りと、世界全体のおよそ18％ですが、2050年までには24億人を超え、世界の人口の4人に1人がアフリカの人々になると予測されています。
人口急増の背景にあるのが高い出生率で、国連のデータによりますと、サハラ砂漠以南の国々では1人の女性が一生のうちに産む子どもの数の指標は平均して4.5となっていて、世界平均の2.3を大きく上回っています。
さらに、アフリカでは人口が増加するだけでなく、平均年齢も世界全体と比較して若いのが特徴で、市場としての魅力も高く、世界から注目されています。
一方で、増え続ける人口に教育や雇用が追いつかず、格差の拡大も大きな問題となっているほか、貧困や飢餓が深刻さを増している国もあり、アフリカの人口問題は世界が取り組むべき課題になっています。
国連人口基金「人口の増減のデータに基づいた政策を」
世界の人口が80億人を突破することについて、日本を訪れていたUNFPA＝国連人口基金のコミュニケーション・戦略的パートナーシップ局のイアン・マクファーレン局長はNHKのインタビューに対し「人々が長生きし、女性が出産で命を落とすことが減ったことを、まずは祝福すべきだ。一方で、環境への負荷など世界への影響を懸念する声もあがるだろう」と述べました。
そのうえで、食料不足や格差拡大への懸念については「人口の増減について状況を正確に把握するとともに、人々が平等にサービスを享受でき、社会に貢献できるような法的枠組みも必要だ」と述べ、各国が取り組む課題や責任も生じるとして、人口の増減のデータに基づいた政策を進める必要性を指摘しました。
また「出生率が最も高い国の1つのニジェールでは、女性1人当たりから7人近くの子どもが生まれていて、多くの場合、女性はこれほど多くの子どもを望んでいない」と述べたうえで「女性や少女が保健サービスや避妊方法へのアクセスを保証され、結婚や出産について自分の意思で決める環境をつくることが変化をもたらす」として、女性に教育や選択肢を提供する重要性を強調しました。
Translation
According to the United Nations, the world's population had exceeded 8 billion on the 15th. Population growth was significant in India and African countries, and it was expected that India would overtake China to become the world's most populous country next year.
The world's population continued to grow against the backdrop of increased life expectancy and a decline in maternal and child mortality, with an increase of approximately 1 billion people over the past 12 years, and the United Nations said it had exceeded 8 billion on the 15th.
According to the United Nations, the population in some South Asia countries and in Africa was expected to continue to increase significantly in the future, and India was expected to surpass China next year and become the most populous country in the world.
Also, by 2050, more than half of the world's population was expected to be in countries south of Sahara Desert in Africa.
On the other hand, in 61 countries and regions including Japan, it was predicted that their populations could drop by 1% or more by 2050 due to declining birth rates and other factors.
The pace of global population growth was also gradually slowing, and it was believed that there could b a possibility of a decline after reaching a peak of about 10.4 billion people in the 2080s.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs said that countries with rapidly growing population need to secure education and job opportunities for young people, while countries that did not expect population growth needed to prepare for declining birthrates and aging populations.
Eight countries would experience significant population growth by 2050
The United Nations had identified eight countries that could experience significant population growth by 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, the Philippines, and Tanzania.
In these countries, a factor that would be expected to significantly increase population as pointed out by the United Nations was that while the average life expectancy was increasing, the mortality rate of infants etc. were decreasing.
On the other hand, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs said that the rapid population growth and continued high birth rate could hinder the development of society because the education of children could not keep up.
On top of that, by promoting gender equality, etc., it was said that it could be possible to shift the birth rate that would be too high into a more stable level.
The background of India's population growth
India's current population was approximately 1.4 billion.
Since the 1950s, the government had implemented policies
aimed at limiting the number of children for married couples to two to curb the
population, contraceptive surgery was also performed, but currently there were
no strict restrictions as a country.
Recently, the population was increasing by 1% every year, and one of the reasons believed was a decrease in infant mortality rate due to improvements in the sanitary environment.
According to government statistics, the infant mortality rate dropped from 68 per 1,000 people in 2000 to 28 per 1,000 in 2020.
In addition, as the economy continued to grow rapidly, the average life expectancy had increased from 49.7 years in the early 1970s to 69.7 years in the late 2000s, an increase of 20 years.
The population structure was in a bell shape, with a high percentage of young people who were expected to have children in the future. The population was expected to continue to grow for the time being, and projected to exceed 1.6 billion by 2050.
By 2050, 1 in 4 people would be Africans
The wave of population growth was also hitting Africa, and
according to the United Nations, the population of Africa in 2022 could be over
1.4 billion, about 18% of the world's total, and over 2.4 billion people by
2050. It was predicted that 1 in 4 of the population could be African.
High fertility rates were behind the rapid population
growth. According to United Nations data, countries south of Sahara had an
average index of 4.5 children per woman in their lifetime. This was well above
the global average of 2.3.
Furthermore, in Africa not only the population was increasing, but had a special feature that its average age was younger than the rest of the world, making it a highly attractive market and drawing attention from around the world.
In recent years, against the backdrop of the spread of the Internet, many local start-up companies were born to create new services in fields that were facing issues until now, such as healthcare, logistics, and agriculture. Investments from all over the world were attracted here, and in Japan the public and private sectors were actively moving to increase investment.
On the other hand, education and employment could not keep up with the ever-growing population, and widening disparities had become major problems. In addition, poverty and hunger were becoming more serious in some countries. Africa's population problem had become an issue that must be addressed by the world.
United Nations Population Fund “Policies Based on
Population Change Data”
Regarding the world population surpassing 8 billion, Ian
McFarlane, Director of the Division for Communications and Strategic
Partnerships of the UNFPA = United Nations Population
Fund, who was visiting Japan, told NHK in an interview that "On the fact
that people live longer and fewer women die in childbirth, first of all, we
should congratulate that. On the other hand, there will also be voices of
concern about the impact on the world, such as the burden on the
environment."
On top of that, regarding concerns about food shortages and widening disparities, he said, "In addition to accurately grasping the situation of population fluctuations, we need a legal framework that allows people to enjoy services equally and contribute to society." He pointed out the need to promote policies based on data on population fluctuations, as issues and responsibilities to be addressed by each country could arise.
Also, he said. "In one of the countries with the
highest fertility rate, individual woman has nearly seven children, and in most
situation, women don't want that many children"; and supposed that “To guarantee
women and girls access to health services and contraceptive methods, and also
to create an environment where they can make their own decisions about marriage
and childbirth will bring about changes to the situation” and stressed the
importance of providing education and options to women.
So, the
United Nations has announced that the world's population exceeds 8 billion.
Population growth is significant in India and African countries, and it is
expected that India will overtake China next year to become the world's most
populous country. I am interested in knowing how China leaders will react to a
declining population in the country.
Note:
1. UNFPA is the United Nations Population Fund, formerly
the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, it is a UN agency aimed at
improving reproductive and maternal health worldwide. (Wikipedia)
2. Niger or the Niger is officially known as the Republic of the Niger. It is a landlocked country in West Africa. It is bordered by Libya to the northeast, Chad to the east, Nigeria to the south, Benin and Burkina Faso to the southwest, Mali to the west, and Algeria to the northwest. It covers a land area of almost 1,270,000 km2 (490,000 sq mi), making it the second-largest landlocked country in West Africa after Chad. Over 80% of its land area lies in the Sahara. Its predominantly Muslim population of about 25 million live mostly in clusters in the further south and west of the country. The capital Niamey is located in Niger's southwest corner. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger)
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