美聯儲正在損失數十億美元，報銷為支出提供資金的利潤

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Fed Is Losing Billions, Wiping Out Profits That Funded Spending

Enda Curran, Jana Randow and Jonnelle Marte

Tue, October 25, 2022 at 8:12 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- Profits and losses aren’t usually thought of as a consideration for central banks, but rapidly mounting red ink at the Federal Reserve and many peers risks becoming more than just an accounting oddity.

The bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years.

Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks park with them. That’s tipped the Fed into operating losses, creating a hole that may ultimately require the Treasury Department to fill via debt sales. The UK Treasury is already preparing to make up a loss at the Bank of England.

Britain’s move highlights a dramatic shift in countries including the US, where central banks are no longer significant contributors to government revenues. The US Treasury will see a “stunning swing,” going from receiving about $100 billion last year from the Fed to a potential annual loss rate of $80 billion by year-end, according to Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.

The accounting losses threaten to fuel criticism of the asset purchase programs undertaken to rescue markets and economies, most recently when Covid-19 shuttered large swathes of the global economy in 2020. Coinciding with the current outbreak in inflation, that could spur calls to rein in monetary policy makers’ independence, or limit what steps they can take in the next crisis.

“The problem with central bank losses are not the losses per se -- they can always be recapitalized -- but the political backlash central banks are likely to increasingly face,” said Jerome Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re, who previously worked at Switzerland’s central bank.

The following figures illustrate the scope of operating losses or mark-to-market balance-sheet losses now materializing:

Fed remittances owed to the US Treasury reached a negative $5.3 billion as of Oct. 19 -- a sharp contrast with the positive figures seen as recently as the end of August. A negative number amounts to an IOU that would be repaid via any future income.

The Reserve Bank of Australia posted an accounting loss of A$36.7 billion ($23 billion) for the 12 months through June, leaving it with a A$12.4 billion negative-equity position.

Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot, warned last month he expects cumulative losses of about 9 billion euro ($8.8 billion) for the coming years.

The Swiss National Bank reported a loss of 95.2 billion francs ($95 billion) for the first six months of the year as the value of its foreign-exchange holdings slumped -- the worst first-half performance since it was established in 1907.

While for a developing country, losses at the central bank can undermine confidence and contribute to a general exodus of capital, that sort of credibility challenge isn’t likely for a rich nation.

As Seth Carpenter, chief global economist for Morgan Stanley and a former US Treasury official put it: “The losses don’t have a material effect on their ability to conduct monetary policy in the near term.”

RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said in response to a question last month about the Australian central bank’s negative-equity position that “we don’t believe that we are impacted at all in our capacity to operate.” After all, “we can create money. That’s what we did when we bought the bonds,” she noted.

But there can still be consequences. Central banks had already become politically charged institutions after, by their own admission, they failed to anticipate and act quickly against budding inflation over the past year or more. Incurring losses adds another magnet for criticism.

ECB Implications

For the European Central Bank, the potential for mounting losses comes after years of purchases of government bonds conducted despite the reservations of conservative officials arguing they blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy.

With inflation running at five times the ECB’s target, pressure is mounting to dispose of the bond holdings -- a process called quantitative tightening that the ECB is currently preparing for even as the economic outlook darkens.

“Although there are no clear economic constraints to the central bank running losses, there is the possibility that these become more of a political constraint on the ECB,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists George Cole and Simon Freycenet said. Particularly in northern Europe, it “may fuel the discussion of quantitative tightening.”

President Christine Lagarde hasn’t given any indication that the ECB’s decision on QT will be driven by the prospect of incurring losses. She told lawmakers in Brussels last month that generating profits isn’t part of central banks’ task, insisting that fighting inflation remains policymakers’ “only purpose.”

BOJ, Fed

The Bank of Japan remains apart for now, not having raised interest rates and still imposing a negative rate on a portion of banks’ reserves. But things could change when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April, and his successor is confronted by historically high inflation.

As for the Fed, Republicans have in the past voiced opposition to its practice of paying interest on surplus bank reserves. Congress granted that authority back in 2008 to help the Fed control interest rates. With the Fed now incurring losses, and the Republicans potentially taking control of at least one chamber of Congress in the November midterm elections, the debate may resurface.

The Fed’s turnaround could be particularly notable. After paying as much as $100 billion to the Treasury in 2021, it could face losses of more than $80 billion on an annual basis if policymakers raise rates by 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December -- as markets anticipate -- estimates Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont.

Without the income from the Fed, the Treasury then needs to sell more debt to the public to fund government spending.

“This may be too arcane to hit the public’s radar, but a populist could spin the story in a way that would not reflect well on the Fed,” Stanley wrote in a note to clients this month.

Translation

(彭博社) - 盈虧通常不被認為是中央銀行的考慮因素，但美聯儲局和許多同行的赤字迅速增加，可能不僅僅是會計上的怪事。

由於高通脹和央行正在實施的激進加息引發的債券市場正在經歷一代人以來最嚴重的拋售。反過來，債券價格下跌意味著美聯儲和其他機構在近年來的救援行動中積累的大量資產的賬面損失。

加息還涉及中央銀行為商業銀行存放的準備金支付更多利息。這使美聯儲陷入經營虧損，造成了一個可能最終需要財政部通過發債來填補的漏洞。英國財政部已經準備彌補英格蘭銀行的損失。

英國的舉動突顯了包括美國在內的國家的巨大轉變，在這些國家，中央銀行不再是政府收入的重要貢獻者。根據 Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC 的數據，美國財政部將出現 “驚人的波動” ，從去年從美聯儲局約1,000 億美元收入，到年底可能達到 800 億美元的年度損失。

會計損失有可能引發對為拯救市場和經濟而採取的資產購買計劃的批評，最近一次是在 2020 年 Covid-19 關閉了全球經濟的大部分地區。與當前通貨膨脹的爆發相吻合，這可能會促使人們呼籲控制貨幣政策制定者的獨立性，或限制他們在下一次危機中可以採取的措施。

曾在瑞士中央銀行工作的瑞士再保險首席經濟學家 Jerome Haegeli 表示: “央行虧損的問題不在於損失本身 - 它們總是可以進行資本重組 -  而是央行可能會越來越多面臨政治反彈” 。

以下數字說明了目前正在實現的經營虧損, 或按市值計價的資產負債表虧損的範圍：

截至 10 月 19 日，美聯儲欠美國財政部的匯款為負 53 億美元，這與最近在 8 月底看到的正數據形成鮮明對比。負數相當於借據，將通過任何未來收入去償還。

澳大利亞儲備銀行公佈截至 6 月的 12 個月會計虧損 367 億澳元（合 230 億美元），其負資產頭寸為 124 億澳元。

荷蘭央行行長 Klaas Knot 上個月警告稱，他預計未來幾年累計虧損約 90 億歐元（88 億美元）。

瑞士國家銀行報告稱，今年前六個月虧損 952 億瑞士法郎（合 950 億美元），原因是其外匯持倉價值暴跌 - 這是自 1907 年成立以來上半年表現最差的一次。

雖然對於發展中國家而言，中央銀行的損失可能會削弱信心並導致資本普遍外流，但對於富裕國家而言，這種信譽挑戰不太可能。

正如摩根士丹利首席全球經濟學家、前美國財政部官員Seth Carpenter所說： “這些損失不會對他們在短期內實施貨幣政策的能力會產生重大影響。”

RBA 副行長 Michele Bullock 上個月在回答有關澳大利亞央行負資產頭寸的問題時表示， “我們認為我們的運營能力完全沒有受到影響。” 畢竟，她指出 “我們可以創造金錢。這就是我們在購買債券時所做的” 。

但後果仍有可能產生。中央銀行自己承認, 在過去一年或更長時間內, 在未能預見並迅速採取行動應對新興的通貨膨脹之後，它們已經成為具有政治色彩的機構。遭受損失增加了另一個受批評的引力。

歐洲央行的影響

對歐洲央行而言，儘管保守派官員對購買政府債券有保留, 認為這模糊了貨幣政策和財政政策之間的界限，在多年購買之後，可能會出現虧損的機會越來越大。

由於通脹率達到歐洲央行目標的五倍，出售所持債券的壓力越來越大 - 即使經濟前景黯淡，歐洲央行目前仍在為這一過程做準備。

高盛集團經濟學家 George Cole 和 Simon Freycenet 表示： “儘管央行的虧損沒有明顯的經濟上的限制，但有更多可能成為歐洲央行在政治上的限制” 。特別是在北歐，它 “可能會引發關於量化緊縮的討論” 。

行長拉加德並未顯示任何跡象表明歐洲央行對 QT (quantitative tightening) 的決定將受到可能蒙受損失的驅動。她上個月在布魯塞爾告訴立法者，創造利潤不是央行任務的一部分，堅稱對抗通脹仍然是政策制定者的 “唯一目的” 。

日本央行、美聯儲局

日本央行目前仍處於個別地行動，沒有提高利率，仍然對部分銀行的準備金實行負利率。但當黑田東彥行長於 4 月卸任時，情況可能會發生變化，而他的繼任者將面臨歷史高位的通脹。

至於美聯儲局，共和黨人過去曾表示反對其為盈餘銀行準備金去支付利息的做法。國會早在 2008 年就授予該權力，以幫助美聯儲控制利率。由於美聯儲現在蒙受損失，而共和黨可能在 11 月的中期選舉中至少會控制其中一個國會議院，這場辯論可能會重新浮現。

美聯儲局的回轉可能尤其引人注目。據估計，在 2021 年向財政部支付多達 1,000 億美元之後，如果政策制定者在 11 月和 12 月正如市場預期地分別加息 75 個基點和 50 個基點，Amherst Pierpont的首席經濟學家 Stephen Stanley 估計它每年可能面臨超過 800 億美元的損失。

如果沒有美聯儲局的收入，財政部就需要向公眾出售更多債務來為政府支出提供資金。

Stanley本月在給客戶的一份報告中寫道: “這可能太晦澀難懂了，無法引起公眾的注意，但民粹主義者可能會以扭編故事去負面地反映美聯儲局” 。

So, the bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years. Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks deposit with them. Without the income from the Fed, the Treasury then needs to sell more debt to the public to fund government spending. The decisions of central banks are becoming more political.