中國“最全面”的房地產行業救助計劃提振了股票和債券

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China's 'most comprehensive' rescue package for property sector lifts stocks, bonds

Mon, November 14, 2022 at 9:43 a.m.

By Clare Jim and Xie Yu

HONG KONG (Reuters) -Chinese property stocks and bonds soared on Monday as the market cheered Beijing's "most comprehensive" support measures aimed at boosting liquidity in the sector in its latest attempt to stabilize a key pillar for the world's second-largest economy.

The package, which sources say lays out multiple financing measures for the cash-strapped industry, was hailed by analysts as a "turning point" with one even describing it as the equivalent of "soaking rain after a long drought".

China's property sector, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, has struggled with defaults and stalled projects, hitting market confidence and weighing on growth.

Previous efforts by policymakers to help ease the cash crunch have done little to bolster the property market.

The plan comes nearly a month after Chinese President Xi Jinping secured his third term at the helm of the ruling Communist Party at a time when the economy faces a series of headwinds including China's zero-COVID strategy, a property slump and global recession risks.

"We see property being much less of a drag to GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2023," said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank Research.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index jumped more than 13.5% to close at a two-month high, with the share prices of many Chinese property developers posting double-digit gains.

Country Garden rallied 45.5% to hit an over three-month high. Logan Group, KWG Group, Agile Group and R&F Properties all rose more than 30%.

A dollar bond of defaulted Yango Group due 2023 rose 1.787 cents on the dollar to 2.712 in early trade, according to data from Duration Finance. Powerlong Real Estate's April 2025 bond was traded at 9.275 cents, 3.055 cents higher than Friday. Their bonds also surged onshore.

Two sources told Reuters on Sunday a notice to financial institutions from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) outlined 16 steps to support the property sector, including loan repayment extensions.

PBOC and CBIRC have not responded to Reuters' requests for comment.

Meanwhile, the CBIRC on Friday issued a notice allowing commercial banks to issue letters of guarantee to real estate firms for escrow pre-sale housing funds.

AILING PROPERTY MARKET

Citi said the package signals a major shift in regulators' policy stance on developers, from "imposing restrictions" to "providing support", and "rescuing projects, but not developers" to "rescuing both developers and projects".

The notice "introduced by far the most comprehensive set of support measures for the ailing property market," it said.

Jefferies estimated the package, together with other recent policies, would inject around 1.3 trillion yuan ($183.83 billion) credit into the property sector, largely covering private developers' public bonds and trust products due to mature by end-2023.

Last week, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors said it would widen a program to support about 250 billion yuan worth of debt sales by private firms, including property developers.

Some investors remained cautious about the impact of the latest policy, however, as regulators have already made many attempts to revive the property sector and the macro environment remains weak amid the country's COVID restrictions.

China's property sector has slowed sharply this year as the government sought to restrict excessive borrowing by developers.

The clampdown has triggered falls in property sales and prices, bond defaults and the suspension of housing construction, angering homeowners which have threatened to stop mortgage payments.

Private data released earlier in November showed home prices in 100 cities dropped for a fourth month in October, while property sales by floor area fell about 20% year-on-year.

"At the end of the day, the rebound of home sales is still needed for an ultimate industry comeback," said James Wong, portfolio manager at GaoTeng Global Asset Management Ltd.

Li Gen, CEO of Beijing BG Capital Management Ltd, which specialises in credit investment, said developers that have not defaulted would benefit the most, but the help would be "less meaningful" for offshore property bonds as it remains unclear how offshore financing could be enhanced.

Citi said the package should also help bank shares as it eases investors' concern on developers' credit risk.

Banks with higher exposure to developers including Ping An Bank, Industrial Bank and China Merchants Bank, would particularly benefit, Citi added.

Translation

香港（路透社）- 中國房地產股和債券週一飆升，因市場歡呼北京採取“最全面”的支持措施，旨在提高該行業的資產流動性，這是其穩定世界第二大經濟體關鍵支柱的最新嘗試。

消息人士稱，該一籃子計劃為資金短缺的行業製定了多項融資措施，被分析師譽為 “轉折點” ， 甚至將其描述為相當於“久旱逢甘霖”。

佔經濟總量四分之一的中國房地產行業一直在違約和停滯的項目中苦苦掙扎，打擊了市場信心並拖累了經濟增長。

政策制定者此前為緩解現金緊縮所做的努力對提振房地產市場收效甚微。

該計劃在中國國家主席習近平獲得了執政共產黨的第三個任期近一個月出台，當時經濟面臨一系列不利因素，包括中國的零 COVID 戰略、房地產市場低迷和全球衰退風險。

瑞銀投資銀行研究部首席中國經濟學家Tao Wang表示 “我們認為房地產對 2023 年 GDP（國內生產總值）增長的拖累要小得多了” 。

恆生內地地產指數升逾 13.5%，收於兩個月高位，多家內房股股價錄得雙位數升幅。

碧桂園大漲 45.5%，創逾三個月新高。龍光集團、合景泰富集團、雅居樂集團和富力地產漲幅均超過30%。

根據 Duration Finance 的數據，違約的陽光集團 2023 年到期的美元債券在早盤交易中上漲 1.787 美仙至 2.712 美仙。寶龍地產 2025 年 4 月期債券的交易價格為 9.275 美仙，較上週五上漲 3.055 美仙。他們的在岸債券也飆升。

兩名消息人士周日告訴路透社，中國人民銀行 (PBOC) 和中國銀行保險監督管理委員會 (CBIRC) 向金融機構發出的通知概述了支持房地產行業的 16 項措施，包括延期償還貸款。

中國人民銀行和銀保監會尚未回覆路透社的置評請求。

與此同時，中國銀保監會周五發布通知，允許商業銀行向房地產企業發出預售住房公積金託管保証函件。

房地產市場不景氣

花旗表示，該方案標誌著監管機構對開發商的政策立場發生了重大轉變，從 “施加限制” 到 “提供支持” ，從 “救項目，不救開發商” 到 “救開發商和項目” 。

花旗稱，該通知 “為不景氣的房地產市場推出了迄今為止最全面的一套支持措施” 。

Jefferies 估計，該一籃子計劃連同其他近期政策將為房地產行業注入約 1.3 萬億元人民幣（1,838.3 億美元）的信貸，主要用於覆蓋將於 2023 年底到期的私人開發商的公共債券和信託產品。

上週，National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors 表示，將擴大一項計劃，支持包括房地產開發商在內的民營企業發行價值約 2,500 億元人民幣的債券。

然而，一些投資者對最新政策的影響仍持謹慎態度，因為監管機構已經多次嘗試重振房地產行業，而宏觀環境在該國的 COVID 限制下仍然疲軟。

由於政府試圖限制開發商的過度借貸，今年中國的房地產行業已大幅放緩。

打壓導致房地產銷售和價格下跌、債券違約和住房建設暫停，激怒了房主, 他們威脅要停止支付抵押的貸款。

11 月初公佈的民間數據顯示，10 月 100 個城市的房價連續第四個月下跌，而按建築面積計算的房地產銷售同比下降約 20%。

 GaoTeng Global Asset Management Ltd 的投資組合經理 James Wong 表示： “歸根結底，房屋銷售的反彈仍然需要行業的最終復甦。”

專門從事信貸投資的 Beijing BG Capital Management Ltd 首席執行官 Li Gen 表示，沒有違約的開發商將受益最大，但對於離岸房地產債券的幫助將 “意義不大” ，因為目前尚不清楚離岸融資如何進行強化。

花旗表示，該方案還應該有助於銀行股，因為它緩解了投資者對開發商信貸風險的擔憂。

花旗補充說，平安銀行、興業銀行和招商銀行等對開發商敞口較大的銀行將尤其受益。

So, Beijing will introduce its “most comprehensive" support measures aimed at boosting liquidity in its latest attempt to stabilize the country’s economy. Some experts think that the rebound of home sales is still needs an ultimate industry comeback. Let’s wait and see how this new round of booster will help China’s economy.

Note:

1. Jefferies Group LLC is an American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company that is headquartered in New York City. The firm provides clients with capital markets and financial advisory services, institutional brokerage, securities research, and asset management. (Wikipedia)

2. National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors

National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors helps develop the Chinese interbank bond, interbank lending, foreign exchange, commercial paper and gold markets. The association's membership includes policy, commercial, and credit cooperative banks, insurance companies, securities houses, fund management companies, and trust and investment companies. (https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/NATASZ:CH)