9月外國人連續第8個月拋售中國債券；步伐加快

Recently Reuters on-line reported the following:

Foreigners offload Chinese bonds for 8th straight month in September; pace accelerates

By Reuters Staff

SHANGHAI, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Foreign investors quickened the pace at which they cut holdings of Chinese bonds in September, leading to the eighth consecutive month of outflows - and the longest streak of outflows on record - weighed by a weakening yuan and U.S. monetary tightening.

Foreign holdings of yuan-denominated bonds traded on China’s interbank market stood at 3.4 trillion yuan ($468.08 billion) at September-end, versus 3.48 trillion yuan a month earlier, the central bank’s Shanghai head office said late last week.

Such holdings fell 30 billion yuan on month in August.

Overseas institutional investors sold 61.6 [sic] yuan worth of interbank bonds last month, compared with 27.8 billion yuan in August, showed data from China Central Depository & Clearing Co.

“We do not expect any meaningful comeback of inflows yet, on compressed yield differentials, a subdued RMB (yuan) sentiment, and probably expectations for further increases in UST (U.S. Treasury) yields to be much less rapid than earlier in the cycle,” said rates strategist Frances Cheung at OCBC Bank.

The yield gap between China’s benchmark 10-year government bonds and their U.S. counterparts reached the widest in 15 years in September when the yuan , faced with intensifying depreciation pressure, hit lows last seen in global financial crisis of 2008.

“The unfavorable interest rate spreads between China and the U.S. remain and the broad USD continues to strengthen,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a client note.

“We expect CNY to depreciate further in the next few months and our 3-month forecast for USD/CNY is 7.4.”

Some traders and analysts also pointed to domestic economic slowdown as among factors weighing on bond flows. China’s economy rebounded in the third quarter at a pace faster than market watchers had expected, but a more robust revival in the longer term will likely be challenged by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a prolonged property slump and global recession risk.

Elsewhere in the region, foreigners turned net sellers of Asia ex-China bonds in September as concern mounted over a weaker growth outlook, slowing exports and U.S. tightening.

 ($1 = 7.2637 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Brenda Goh; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

Translation

上海，10 月 31 日（路透社） - 外國投資者在 9 月加快了減持中國債券的步伐，導致連續第八個月資金外流 - 也是有記錄以來最長的資金外流 - 受到人民幣走軟和美國貨幣收緊的拖累。

中國央行上海總部上週晚些時候表示，截至 9 月底，在中國銀行間市場交易的人民幣計價債券的外國持有量為 3.4 萬億元人民幣（4,680.8 億美元），而一個月前為 3.48 萬億元人民幣。

8月份以月計此類持倉量減少300億元。

中央國債登記結算公司數據顯示，上月境外機構投資者賣出616[億]元銀行間債券，8月為278億元。

華僑銀行利率策略師 Frances Cheung 表示: “我們預計資金流入不會出現任何有意義的回升，原因是收益率差異壓縮、人民幣人氣低迷，以及對 UST（美國國債）收益率進一步上升的速度, 預期可能遠低於早期的週期” 。

人民幣面臨不斷加劇的貶值壓力, 中國基準10年期國債與美國國債的收益率差距在9月份達到15年來最大，觸及2008年全球金融危機以來的低點。

高盛分析師在一份客戶報告中表示： “中美之間不利的利差依然存在，美元普遍走強。”

“我們預計未來幾個月人民幣將進一步貶值，我們對美元兌人民幣 3 個月的預測為 7.4。”

一些交易員和分析師還指出，國內經濟放緩是影響債券流動的因素之一。中國經濟在第三季度的反彈速度快於市場觀察人士的預期，但從長遠來看，更強勁的復蘇可能會受到持續的 COVID-19 限制、長期的房地產低迷和全球經濟衰退風險的挑戰。

在該地區的其他地方，由於對增長前景疲軟、出口放緩和美國收緊政策的擔憂加劇，9 月份外國人轉變成為亞洲（中國除外）債券的淨賣家。

So, foreign investors have been selling Chinese bonds as a result of a weakening yuan and U.S. monetary tightening. Some traders and analysts also point to China’s domestic economic slowdown as other factors. China’s economy is still likely be impacted by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a prolonged property slump and global recession risk.