拆解 - 香港現金收緊的背後是什麼？

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

Explainer-What's behind Hong Kong's tightening cash conditions?

Thu, November 3, 2022 at 3:33 p.m.

By Georgina Lee

HONG KONG (Reuters) - A weak Hong Kong dollar and capital outflows have pushed the city's interbank rates to 14-year highs and drained cash levels to their lowest in two years, sparking investor worries about Hong Kong's cherished currency peg and its economic health.

Below are some details on the complex policy framework and recent developments surrounding the tight liquidity:

WHY IS HONG KONG ON INVESTORS' RADAR?

Hong Kong's aggregate balance, a gauge of cash levels in the banking system, has been declining rapidly since May and is about to drop below HK$100 billion ($12.74 billion) for the first time in two years.

The decline in the aggregate balance has come alongside a drop in the Hong Kong dollar to the weak end of its trading band, driven by aggressive U.S. monetary tightening, capital outflows and intervention by the defacto central bank - the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).

That has tightened cash in the economy and driven the one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offer Rate (HIBOR) to a 14-year high.

WHY ARE CASH CONDITIONS SO TIGHT?

A dearth of initial public offerings this year on Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing's (HKEX) markets has dampened investor demand for Hong Kong dollars. Total IPO funds raised on the exchange plunged 74% year-on-year to HK$73.2 billion ($9.33 billion) for the first nine months this year, HKEX data shows.

There has also been an outflow of foreign investment from Hong Kong equities, funds and bonds. Their combined balance in Hong Kong's international investment position, which is the external balance sheet, dropped by 3% to HK$3.99 trillion as of June compared with the end of 2021, official data shows.

Hong Kong dollar interbank liquidity has tightened accordingly. The aggregate balance, a key measure of the interbank cash balance, has also been depleted by 40 rounds of currency intervention by the HKMA this year.

HOW ARE HONG KONG INTEREST RATES DETERMINED?

Under Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged in a tight band between 7.75 and 7.85 to the U.S. dollar, and the HKMA is committed to intervene to maintain the band.

As outflows from Hong Kong picked up, the HKMA has been forced to buy the local dollar and sell U.S. dollars to prevent it from weakening past 7.85.

HKMA's buying of Hong Kong dollars shrank the aggregate balance from HK$233.49 billion in June to HK$100.03 bln on Thursday, resulting in higher Hibor rates.

The overnight Hibor, which reflects financial institutions' demand for cash, spiked to 3.028% on Oct 31, the highest in nearly three years. Hibor is influenced mainly by capital flows in and out of Hong Kong, as the HKMA does not set interest rates.

IS THE FALL IN BANKING SYSTEM LIQUIDITY A CAUSE FOR CONCERN?

While foreign exchange reserves are down $33 bln since May, they remain ample at $419.2 billion. Also, with fiscal buffers in the form of exchange bills, the HKMA can fend off any notion of pressure on the currency peg.

Moreover, Hong Kong's monetary Base, at HK$1.9 trillion, is fully backed by U.S. dollar assets.

But home owners with mortgages will face larger interest payments as Hibor, which is the benchmark that banks use, rises. The HKMA said cases of negative equity in Hong Kong's residential mortgage loans registered a near ninefold increase in the third quarter from the prior quarter.

HOW FAR WILL HKMA LET THE AGGREGATE BALANCE FALL?

The last time the aggregate balance fell below HK$100 billion was in June 2020, and before that during the last U.S. rate-hike cycle from 2017 to 2019, when the aggregate balance hit HK$54 billion.

The impact on the HK dollar peg had been muted, the HKMA said.

Even if the aggregate balance were to drop to zero, the Linked Exchange Rate System will not be affected as HKMA can mobilise its foreign exchange reserves to support the peg.

Translation

香港（路透社） - 港元疲軟和資本外流已將香港銀行同業拆借利率推高至 14 年高位，並使現金水平降至兩年來的最低水平，引發投資者對香港珍視的貨幣掛鉤及其經濟健康狀況的擔憂。

以下是有關複雜政策框架的一些細節,以及圍繞流動性緊張的近期發展：

為什麼香港是投資者的關注焦點？

衡量銀行體系現金水平的香港總餘額自 5 月以來一直在迅速下降，並將在兩年內首次跌破 1,000 億港元（127.4 億美元）。

由於美國積極收緊貨幣政策、資本外流以及實質上的中央銀行 - 香港金融管理局（金管局）的干預，導致總餘額下降的同時, 港元跌至掛鉤交易區間的弱端.

這導致經濟体系統中的現金收緊，並將 1 個月香港銀行同業拆借利率 (HIBOR) 推至 14 年高位。

為什麼現金條件如此緊張？

今年香港交易及結算所 (HKEX) 市場缺乏首次公開募股，削弱了投資者對港元的需求。香港交易所數據顯示，今年前九個月，在交易所籌集的 IPO 資金總額同比下降 74% 至 732 億港元（合 93.3 億美元）。

香港股票、基金和債券也出現了外國投資的外流。官方數據顯示，截至 6 月，與 2021 年底相比，他們在香港國際投資頭寸（即外部資產負債表）中的綜合餘額下降 3% 至 3.99 萬億港元。

港元銀行同業流動性相應地收緊。總計的餘額, 作為衡量銀行同業的現金關鍵指標，也因今年金管局進行了 40 輪貨幣干預，已被消耗殆盡。

香港利率是如何釐定？

在香港的聯繫匯率制度下，港元與美元的匯率在 7.75 至 7.85 的窄幅區間內掛鉤，金管局承諾會介入以維持該區間。

隨著資金自香港流出增加，金管局被迫買入港元並賣出美元，以防止其跌破 7.85。

金管局買入港元令總餘額由 6 月的 2,334.9 億港元縮減至週四的 1,000.3 億港元，導致 Hibor 利率上升。

反映金融機構對現金需求的隔夜 Hibor 在 10 月 31 日飆升至 3.028%，為近三年來的最高水平。 Hibor 主要受資本流入和流出香港的影響，因為金管局沒有設定利率。

銀行系統流動性下降是否引值得起關注？

儘管外匯儲備自 5 月以來減少了 330 億美元，但仍保持在 4192 億美元的充足水平。此外，憑藉匯票形式的財政緩衝，金管局可以抵禦任何對貨幣掛鉤的壓力。

此外，1.9萬億港元的香港貨幣基礎完全由美元資產支持。

但隨著銀行使用的基準 Hibor 上升，有抵押貸款的屋主將面臨更大的利息支付。金管局表示，第三季香港住宅按揭貸款負資產個案較上季增加近九倍。

金管局會讓綜合餘額下降多少？

上一次總餘額跌破 1,000 億港元是在 2020 年 6 月，而在此之前是在 2017 年至 2019 年的美國上一次加息週期期間，總餘額達到 540 億港元。

金管局表示，對港元掛鉤的影響已經減弱。

即使總餘額降至零，聯繫匯率制度也不會受到影響，因為金管局可以調動其外匯儲備來支持掛鉤。

So, Hong Kong's aggregate balance, a gauge of cash levels in the banking system, has been declining rapidly since May.  A weak Hong Kong dollar and capital outflows have pushed the city's interbank rates to 14-year highs, sparking investor worries about Hong Kong's cherished currency peg and its economic health. The good news is that under the present system, even if the aggregate balance were to drop to zero, the Linked Exchange Rate System will not be affected as Hong Kong can mobilise its foreign exchange reserves to support the peg.

Note:

The interest rate that banks lend to each other is known as interbank offered rate (IBOR). Hong Kong's interbank offered rate is referred to as HIBOR, London's interbank offered rate, called LIBORR, Shanghai interbank offered rate called SHIBOR. This interest rate will be lower than the interest rate that the bank lends to customers.