香港的 “一隻股票，兩種貨幣” 計劃反映了中國的人民幣雄心

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Hong Kong's 'one stock, two currencies' plan reflects China's yuan ambitions

Tue, October 18, 2022 at 2:26 p.m.

By Georgina Lee and Summer Zhen

HONG KONG, Oct 18 (Reuters) - As Hong Kong prepares to launch yuan-denominated stocks in its markets, investors and analysts view it mainly as a test run for China's ambitions to internationalise the yuan.

In the weeks since Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan disclosed the plan for a 'one stock, two currencies' stock trading option, a bunch of blue-chip firms have said they will launch yuan-denominated shares in the city.

As per Chan, the plan is another hook for Hong Kong's role as the pre-eminent offshore yuan hub. For most mainland investors, it is merely an extension of China's "one country, two systems" policy.

Market analysts say it's no coincidence that the plan came just ahead of China's twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress, at which Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear that Hong Kong will be run by patriots and integrated further with the mainland.

"The settlement of security transaction in yuan across the border is more of a market infrastructure driver for yuan internationalisation," said Ju Wang, head of Greater China FX & rates strategy at BNP Paribas.

Institutional investors in particular didn't really need a yuan-denominated trading counter in Hong Kong, given they can easily hedge the currency, Wang said.

China has had a long-standing objective of greater "internationalisation" of the yuan, encouraging its use as a trade settlement currency and promoting yuan-denominated cross-border investments, while leveraging Hong Kong as a major hub for its global offshore yuan business.

LITTLE INCENTIVE

The exact timeline for the launch of the yuan trading counters, which will be part of the southbound leg of the Stock Connect investment channel that connects the Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen stock exchanges, is not known.

A market maker system for yuan stocks, which will pave the way for the debut of the yuan trading counters, is slated for the first half of 2023.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) chief executive Nicolas Aguzin is confident this will make settlements easier and bolster flows from China’s retail investors.

It could also be another route for global investors to own yuan assets. Foreigners own less than 5% of mainland yuan-denominated stocks.

Chinese investors say they will bite only if it improves liquidity in Hong Kong-listed Chinese issuers or provides access to a wider pool of stocks.

Mark Dong, co-founder of Minority Asset Management which manages onshore yuan and offshore dollar funds, says the only incentive for mainland investors is to seek "undervalued and high-dividend names which are scarce at home".

Over a dozen Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies including Tencent, Alibaba Group, New World Development and Xiaomi have said they will explore setting up yuan trading counters.

Yet, there are other disincentives for mainland investors, chiefly the recent underperformance of Hong Kong's stock market and the yuan's weakness.

"Yuan trading counter will provide the convenience, but it won’t affect investors’ ultimate trading behaviour and preference" said Xu Lei, chief investment officer at Shanghai-based Generosity Investment, which manages funds that invest into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect.

"Today when we are trading in Hong Kong dollar, we can comfortably bear that foreign exchange risk."

The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index is the second-worst performing index year-to-date, down 30.8 percent. Trading volumes on the southbound Connect channel have been declining this year.

 (Reporting by Georgina Lee; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

Translation

(路透)香港10月18日 - 隨著香港準備在其市場上推出以人民幣計價的股票，投資者和分析師認為這主要是對中國實現人民幣國際化雄心的一次試水温。

自香港財政司司長陳茂波披露 “一種股票，兩種貨幣” 股票交易期權的計劃之後的幾週內，許多藍籌公司表示將在香港推出以人民幣計價的股票。

 陳茂波表示，該計劃是香港作為聞名的離岸人民幣樞紐的另一個掛鉤。對於大多數內地投資者來說，這只是中國 “一國兩制” 政策的延伸。

市場分析人士表示，該計劃是在中國每十年兩次的共產黨代表大會之前提出是絕非巧合，中國國家主席習近平在大會上明確表示，香港將由愛國者管理，並進一步與內地融合。

法國巴黎銀行大中華區外匯市場和利率策略主管Ju Wang表示： “跨境人民幣證券交易結算更多是推動人民幣國際化的市場基礎設施​​。”

Wang說，機構投資者尤其不需要在香港設立以人民幣計價的交易櫃檯，因為他們可以輕鬆對沖人民幣。

中國的長期目標是提高人民幣 “國際化” ， 鼓勵人民幣作為貿易結算貨幣，促進以人民幣計價的跨境投資，同時利用香港作為其全球離岸人民幣業務的主要樞紐。

誘因不多

人民幣交易櫃檯將會作為連接香港、上海和深圳證券交易所的港股通投資南向通道的一部分，啟動人民幣交易櫃檯的確切時間表尚不清楚。

人民幣股票證券莊家系統將為人民幣交易櫃檯的首次亮相鋪平道路，計劃於2023年上半年推出。

香港交易及結算所 (HKEX) 首席執行官 Nicolas Aguzin 相信，這將使結算變得更容易，並增加來自中國散戶投資者的資金流。

這也可能是全球投資者擁有人民幣資產的另一條途徑。外國人持有的大陸人民幣股票不到5%。

中國投資者表示，只有當它改善在香港上市的中國發行人的流動性或提供更廣泛的股票池時，他們才會採取行動。

管理在岸人民幣和離岸美元基金的 Minority Asset Management 的聯合創始人 Mark Dong 表示，內地投資者的唯一動機是尋找 “國內稀缺的被低估和高股息的資產” 。

騰訊、阿里巴巴集團、新世界發展和小米等十多家在香港上市的中國公司表示，將探索設立人民幣交易櫃檯。

然而，內地投資者還有其他不利因素，主要是近期香港股市表現不佳和人民幣疲軟。

總部位於上海的 Generosity Investment，主要管理通過滬港通投資於港股的基金, 其首席投資官Xu Lei表示: “人民幣交易櫃檯將提供便利，但不會影響投資者的最終交易行為和偏好” 。

“今天我們以港元交易，我們可以輕鬆承受外匯風險” 。

恆生中國企業指數是年初至今表現第二最差的指數，下跌 30.8%。今年以來，南向滬港通交易量一直在下降。

       So,  Hong Kong has disclosed a plan for a 'one stock, two currencies' stock trading option, and some blue-chip firms have said they will launch yuan-denominated shares in the city. Some investors and analysts view it mainly as a test run for China's ambitions to internationalize the yuan, a way that may reduce the dominance of the US dollar globally.

Note:

A market maker (證券莊家）or liquidity provider is a company or an individual that quotes both a buy and a sell price in a tradable asset held in inventory, hoping to make a profit on the bid–ask spread, or turn. In U.S. markets, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission defines a "market maker" as a firm that stands ready to buy and sell stock on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price. (Wikipedia)