Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
EXPLAINER: What
would paying for natural gas in rubles mean? (1 of 2)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Wed, March 30, 2022,
5:31 AM
BERLIN (AP) — Europe's already high gas prices have gyrated since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to have importers pay for Russian natural gas in rubles instead of dollars and euros.
Here's a look at the implications of such a move, and why many are baffled by Putin's demand:
WHAT IS PUTIN PROPOSING?
Europe imports large amounts of Russian natural gas to heat homes, generate electricity and fuel industry, and those imports have continued despite the war in Ukraine.
Around 60% of imports are paid in euros, and the rest in dollars. Putin wants to change that by requiring foreign gas importers to purchase rubles and use them to pay state-owned supplier Gazprom.
Putin told the Russian central bank last Wednesday to come up with a workable system by Thursday.
WHAT EFFECTS COULD THAT PLAN HAVE?
Importers would have to find a bank that would exchange euros and dollars for rubles. That could be cumbersome because some Russian banks have been either blocked or cut off from the SWIFT messaging system that facilitates international payments.
Still, there are some banks that haven't been cut off, and for now, sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury barring bank transactions contain exceptions for energy payments. That's a concession to European allies that are much more reliant on Russian oil and gas and fear a total cutoff could throw their economy into recession.
Russia getting paid for gas in their currency would at best help marginally in getting around financial sanctions, propping up the ruble’s value or protecting the Russian economy, said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former official at the International Monetary Fund.
“Either Putin is getting terrible economic advice or he is going further off the rails in his hatred for the West,” Prasad said. “It would be cheaper for foreign importers to pay for Russia’s exports in a currency that is collapsing in value, but it is difficult to acquire rubles and make payments in a manner that avoids the sanctions."
He warned that the move “could further roil global energy markets by exacerbating current supply disruptions and adding to uncertainty about future supplies, which could all add up to more price spikes.”
HOW IS PUTIN'S DEMAND BEING RECEIVED IN EUROPE?
European governments and energy companies have rejected the idea, saying gas import contracts specify the currency and that one side can't change it overnight. They say they intend to keep paying in euros and dollars.
More broadly, the Group of Seven major economies, including Japan, the U.S. and Canada as well as Germany, France, Italy and Britain, also have said no.
(to be continued)
Translation
柏林（美聯社）- 自俄羅斯總統普京宣布計劃讓進口商以盧布而不是美元和歐元購買俄羅斯天然氣以來，歐洲本已很高的天然氣價格出現波動。
以下是這一舉措的影響，以及為什麼許多人對普京的要求感到困惑：
普京的提議是什麼？
歐洲進口大量俄羅斯天然氣來為家庭供暖、發電和燃料工業，儘管烏克蘭發生戰爭，這些進口仍在繼續。
大約 60% 的進口商品以歐元支付，其餘以美元支付。普京希望通過要求外國天然氣進口商購買盧布並用它們向國有供應商俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司付款來改變這種狀況。
普京上週三告訴俄羅斯央行，要在周四之前提出一個可行的制度。
該計劃會產生什麼影響？
進口商必須找到一家可以將歐元和美元兌換成盧布的銀行。這可能很麻煩，因為一些俄羅斯銀行要么被阻止，要么被切斷了促進國際支付的 SWIFT 消息系統。
儘管如此，仍有一些銀行沒有被切斷，目前，美國財政部禁止銀行交易的製裁包含能源支付的例外情況。這是對更依賴俄羅斯石油和天然氣的歐洲盟友的讓步，他們擔心全面停產可能會使他們的經濟陷入衰退。
康奈爾大學貿易政策教授、國際貨幣基金組織前官員Eswar Prasad說，俄羅斯以本國貨幣支付天然氣費用，充其量只能略微幫助規避金融制裁、支撐盧布價值或保護俄羅斯經濟。
Prasad說: “要么普京得到了糟糕的經濟建議，要么他對西方的仇恨進一步偏離了軌道” 。 “外國進口商以貶值的貨幣支付俄羅斯出口商品會更便宜，但很難獲得盧布及用付款方式就能去避開制裁。”
他警告說，此舉“可能會加劇當前的供應中斷並增加未來供應的不確定性，從而進一步擾亂全球能源市場，這一切都可能導致價格進一步飆升。”
歐洲如何應對普京的要求？
歐洲政府和能源公司拒絕了這一想法，稱天然氣進口合同規定了貨幣，一方無法在一夜之間改變它。他們說他們打算繼續用歐元和美元支付。
更廣泛地說，包括日本、美國和加拿大以及德國、法國、意大利和英國在內的七國集團主要經濟體也表示不同意。
(待續)
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