印度小麥出口激增緩解全球短缺

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Booming Wheat Exports from India to Ease Global Shortage

Pratik Parija and Ruchi Bhatia

Mon, March 28, 2022, 10:55 PM

(Bloomberg) -- In a world where people are worrying more than ever about food shortages and rising inflation, India’s warehouses are brimming over with grain and the country’s farmers are gearing up for yet another record harvest.

The country is the top global producer of wheat after China and has the potential to ship 12 million tons to the world market in the 2022-23 year, the most on record, according to the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg survey of traders, millers and analysts. That compares with shipments of 8.5 million tons in 2021-22, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

Prices of farm commodities were already on a tear before the Russian invasion of Ukraine as drought shriveled global harvests and demand increased, helping send world food costs to the highest on record. The war made matters even worse because it has choked shipments from one of the planet’s top producing regions, cutting off more than a quarter of the world’s wheat supplies.

“Indian wheat exports help the market in a tight world supply situation,” said Vijay Iyengar, chairman and managing director of Singapore-based Agrocorp International, which trades about 12 million tons of grain annually. “It helps to keep a lid on global prices as well. If India wasn’t exporting wheat in large quantities, prices would have probably escalated further.”

Benchmark wheat prices in Chicago surged to an all-time high of $13.635 a bushel this month after the Russian invasion, compared with an average of only around $5.50 a bushel in the five years through the day preceding the attack.

Tightening supply and rising prices for grain from major exporting countries have made Indian wheat competitive for the first time in years. With ballooning inventories after five straight record crops, India has a huge exportable surplus. That will be crucial for importers in North Africa and the Middle East where soaring food prices sparked violent uprisings more than a decade ago.

While India has tended to ship wheat mostly to neighboring countries such as Bangladesh and to some Middle Eastern markets, exporters are now likely to find buyers across Africa and in other areas of the Middle Eastern region.

Market Frenzy

“Practically every market needs to consider Indian wheat now, particularly in the vicinity of Asia, Africa and the Middle East,” said Iyengar, who has traded commodities for more than three decades. “We have not seen this kind of frenzy for Indian wheat in the global market before.”

India is in final talks to start wheat shipments to Egypt, the world’s top buyer, while discussions are in progress with countries such as China, Turkey, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria and Iran, the commerce ministry said this month. Wheat exports from India were already up more than fourfold to about 6 million tons in the 10 months through January from a year earlier, government data show.

Shipping times to the Middle East will be longer than from traditional Black Sea exporters Ukraine and Russia, but India is well positioned to step in as a low-cost wheat supplier, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Australia, one of the world’s top exporters, is already feeling the heat. Australian wheat is competitively priced, said Jason Craig, chief marketing and trading officer at CBH Group, the biggest shipper. “But Indian wheat is certainly at a lower value,” and “we’re starting to see that compete against Australian wheat in some of our traditional markets,” like Indonesia, he said.

State-run warehouses in India held more than 23 million tons of wheat at the beginning of March, about three times the level required by the government for this time of year, Food Corp. of India data show.

 Translation

(彭博社) - 在一個人們比以往任何時候都更擔心糧食短缺和通脹上升的世界裡，印度的倉庫裡裝滿了穀物，該國的農民正為又一個創紀錄的收成做準備。

根據彭博對貿易商、磨坊主和分析師調查的五項估計值的中位數，該國是僅次於中國的全球最大小麥生產國，並有可能在 2022-23 年向世界市場出口 1,200 萬噸小麥，創歷史新高。相比之下，美國農業部的數據顯示， 其2021-22 年的出貨量為 850 萬噸。

在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，由於乾旱導致全球收成萎縮且需求增加，農產品價格已經大幅上漲，這導致世界食品成本達到歷史最高水平。這場入侵戰爭使情況變得更糟，因為它扼殺了地球上最大產區之一的發貨，切斷了全球四分之一以上的小麥供應。

總部位於新加坡的 Agrocorp International 董事長兼董事總經理 Vijay Iyengar 說: “在全球供應緊張的情況下，印度小麥出口有助於市場”，該公司每年交易約 1,200 萬噸穀物。 “這也有助於控制全球價格。如果印度沒有大量出口小麥，價格可能會進一步上漲。”

在俄羅斯入侵後，本月芝加哥的基準小麥價格飆升至每蒲式耳 13.635 美元的歷史新高，而襲擊前一天的五年平均價格僅為每蒲式耳 5.50 美元左右。

主要出口國的糧食供應趨緊和價格上漲使印度小麥多年來首次具有競爭力。在連續五次創紀錄的收成之後，及隨著庫存的膨脹，印度擁有巨大的出口盈餘。這對北非和中東的進口商來說至關重要，十多年前食品價格飆升引發了暴力起義。

雖然印度傾向於將小麥主要運往孟加拉國等鄰國和一些中東市場，但出口商現在可能會在非洲和中東地區的其他地區找到買家。

市場狂熱

從事大宗商品交易超過 30 年的Iyengar說: “現在幾乎每個市場都需要考慮印度小麥，特別是在亞洲、非洲和中東附近”; “我們以前在全球市場上從未見過這種對印度小麥的狂熱。”

印度商務部本月表示，印度正在就開始向世界最大買家埃及運送小麥進行最後談判，同時與中國、土耳其、波斯尼亞、蘇丹、尼日利亞和伊朗等國的討論正在進行中。政府數據顯示，在截至 1 月份的 10 個月裡，印度的小麥出口量已經比去年同期增長了 4 倍多，達到約 600 萬噸。

根據美國農業部的外國農業服務局的數據，到中東的運輸時間將比傳統的黑海出口國烏克蘭和俄羅斯更長，但印度有能力成為低成本小麥供應國。

澳大利亞是世界最大的出口國之一，已經感受到了壓力。最大的托運人 CBH Group 首席營銷和貿易官 Jason Craig 表示，澳大利亞小麥的價格具有競爭力。他說: “但印度小麥的價格肯定較低”, 並且“開始看到印度小麥在我們的一些傳統市場上與澳大利亞小麥競爭”, 例如印尼。

印度食品公司的數據顯示，3 月初，印度國營倉庫的小麥庫存量超過 2,300 萬噸，約為政府每年這個時候所需水平的三倍。

So, while globally people are worrying more than ever about food shortages and rising inflation, India’s warehouses are having a grain surplus and the country’s wheat are gearing up to put on sale overseas.