如果中國幫助俄羅斯，會被美國製裁的威脅激起北京對外匯資產的擔憂

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

US sanctions threat if China aids Russia stirs fear in Beijing about forex assets

Thu, April 7, 2022, 2:30 AM

Yahoo finance

Washington's financial sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine have raised concern in China over its large exposure to US government bonds, although experts say there is no real alternative for the country to invest its foreign exchange reserves.

In recent weeks, former central bank adviser Yu Yongding and former vice-chairman of the Bank of China, Wang Yongli, have issued warnings about the effect that Western sanctions could have on China's investment in foreign securities, amid US threats of "consequences" if Beijing helps Russia evade sanctions.

"If China also encounters similar sanctions against Russia, its overseas assets may even face the danger of turning to zero," said Yu, a prominent Chinese economist, in a blog post last week.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 triggered a barrage of sanctions from the US and its allies that have included removing some Russian banks from the international financial messaging system Swift, which is used to transfer money across borders.

The foreign currency reserves of Russia's central bank have also been frozen, causing the rouble to plunge more than 20 per cent initially, though the currency has since stabilised after Russia imposed harsh capital controls to prevent outflows.

A country like China that runs a trade surplus has to invest in foreign assets and there are few other choices but US bonds, said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University and a veteran China observer.

"By implementing the sanctions, Washington has shown that control over the global payment system gives it an enormous amount of power," he said. "Countries like China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela who are very concerned with the exercise of that power now have a greater incentive to hold something other than the dollar. But that's all it is ... what else can they hold?"

China, which is known as the workshop for the world, has been accumulating foreign income from its exports since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Last year, China's trade surplus with the rest of the world rose 29 per cent from a year earlier to US$676.43 billion - the highest since records began in 1950.

While China does not disclose where it parks its foreign trade revenue, a significant portion has been invested in US government bonds.

In January this year, China held US$1.06 trillion worth of US treasuries, making it the second largest holder behind Japan, according to the US Treasury.

Based on US Treasury data, US government bonds account for about a third of the value of China's overall foreign exchange reserves, which stood at US$3.22 trillion in January, according to exchange regulator State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

"China's national foreign exchange reserves are mainly the currencies of developed countries such as the US dollar and the euro, and are also mainly stored in developed countries such as the United States and Europe. This outcome is not optional," Wang said in an op-ed published in Caixin magazine late last month.

 "This also means that once the relationship with the United States and Europe breaks down, the security of [China's] foreign exchange reserves will be greatly threatened," Wang said.

China has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and said it would continue to maintain trade and economic cooperation with both countries.

A diplomatic source in Beijing said that China is concerned over the US threat of "consequences", as well as what type of economic engagement with Russia might trigger sanctions.

"The red line is arms sales. The US is playing with ambiguity," said the source. "They believe that Europe may not be on board to sanction [China]."

China has been reducing its exposure to US government bonds since 2015, although it has not been able to find a similar replacement. Investing in euro-denominated securities and Japanese government bonds are also not good alternatives , Pettis said.

"Europe needs to acquire assets abroad and it would not welcome the consequence of too much money shifting out of the dollar into euros because that would force up the value of the euro and make it difficult for the Europeans to run current account surpluses, which they have to run, like China, because domestic demand is too weak," he said.

"Japan also relies on a current account surplus to absorb domestic demand and we have seen it before, if you buy too much yen, the Japanese get angry, so you can't really do that."

While developing countries would welcome China's investment, such exposure is deemed too risky, Pettis said, and the same also applies to gold and other commodities, as reserve assets should be in relatively stable investments during turbulent times.

Both Yu and Wang said Beijing needs to consider countermeasures if the US and Europe impose sanctions on Chinese investment overseas.

"Overseas assets and liabilities should be balanced, especially not to hold too many US dollar assets ... to have the ability to come up with equal countermeasures if needed," Yu said.

Wang said that China should continue its economic and financial opening to the world, encouraging foreign investors to hold more Chinese assets, to form a "stronger integration of interests". He said the US and Europe cannot "afford" to impose sanctions on China similar to those on Russia or North Korea.

"It is difficult for the United States to completely decouple from China, and freezing or even confiscating China's reserve assets can only be an extremely rare crazy outcome," Wang said.

(This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post)

Translation

華盛頓對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的金融制裁,引發了中國對其大量持有美國政府債券的擔憂，儘管專家表示中國沒有真正的替代方案來投資其外匯儲備。

最近幾週，在美國威脅如果北京幫助俄羅斯逃避制裁會有“後果”的情況下，前央行顧問Yu Yongding和中國銀行前副行長Wang Yongli就西方制裁可能對中國投資外國證券產生的影響發出警告。

中國著名經濟學家於上週在一篇博文中表示, “如果中國也遭遇對俄羅斯的類似制裁，其海外資產甚至可能面臨歸零的危險” 。

俄羅斯於 2 月 24 日入侵烏克蘭引發了美國及其盟友的一連串制裁，其中包括將一些俄羅斯銀行, 從用於跨境轉移資金的國際金融信息系統 Swift 中刪除。

俄羅斯央行的外匯儲備也被凍結，導致盧布最初暴跌超過 20%，不過在俄羅斯實施嚴厲的資本管制以防止資金外流後, 盧布已經企穩。

北京大學金融學教授、資深中國觀察家Michael Pettis表示，像中國這樣的貿易順差國家必須投資於外國資產，除了美國債券之外別無選擇。

他說: “通過實施制裁，華盛頓已經表明，對全球支付系統的控制賦予了它巨大的權力”; “像中國、伊朗、俄羅斯和委內瑞拉這樣非常關心這種權力被行使的國家, 現在更有動力去持有美元以外的東西。但僅止於此而已……他們還能持有什麼？”

素有世界工廠之稱的中國，自2001年加入世貿組織以來，出口創匯不斷積累。

去年，中國與世界其他地區的貿易順差同比增長 29%，達到 6,764.3 億美元，創下 1950 年有記錄以來的最高水平。

雖然中國沒有透露其對外貿易收入的存放地點，但很大一部分投資於美國政府債券。

根據美國財政部的數據，今年 1 月，中國持有價值 1.06 萬億美元的美國國債，成為僅次於日本的第二大持有國。

根據外匯監管機構的國家外匯管理局，美國財政部的數據顯示，美國政府債券約佔中國整體外匯儲備價值的三分之一，1 月份為 3.22 萬億美元。

Wang在上個月底在財新雜誌上發表的一篇專欄文章中說: “中國的國家外匯儲備主要是美元、歐元等發達國家的貨幣，也主要存放在美國、歐洲等發達國家，這是一個無選擇的結果。”

Wang 說: “這也意味著，一旦與美國和歐洲的關係破裂，[中國]外匯儲備的安全將受到極大威脅”。

中國拒絕譴責俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，並表示將繼續與兩國保持經貿合作。

北京的一位外交消息人士表示，中國擔心美國的“後果”威脅，以及與俄羅斯進行何種經濟交往可能引發製裁。

“紅線是軍售。美國玩弄模棱兩可把戲”, 消息人士說。 “他們認為歐洲可能不會參與製裁[中國]。”

自 2015 年以來，中國一直在減少對美國政府債券的敞口，但一直未能找到類似的替代品。Pettis說，投資以歐元計價的證券和日本政府債券也不是好的選擇。

他說: “歐洲需要在國外收購資產，它不會歡迎過多資金從美元轉移到歐元所引起的的後果，因為這會推高歐元的價值，並使歐洲人難以去運行經常賬戶盈餘，他們必須像中國一樣運行，因為國內需求太弱了” 。

“日本亦依靠經常賬戶盈餘來吸收內需，我們以前也看到過，如果你買太多日元，日本人就會生氣，所以你真的不能這樣做。”

Pettis說，雖然發展中國家會歡迎中國的投資，但這的敞口種被認為風險太大，黃金和其他大宗商品也是如此，因為在動盪時期，儲備資產應該是一種相對穩定的投資。

Yu和王Wag都表示，如果美國和歐洲對中國的海外投資實施制裁，北京需要考慮採取反制措施。

王表示: “海外資產和負債要平衡，特別是不要持有過多的美元資產……在需要時有能力拿出同等的反制對策” 。

王表示，中國應繼續保持經濟金融對外開放，鼓勵外國投資者持有更多中國資產，形成“更強的利益融合”。 他說，美國和歐洲“負擔不起”對中國實施類似於對俄羅斯或朝鮮的製裁。

王說: “美國很難與中國完全脫鉤，而凍結甚至沒收中國的儲備資產只能是極其罕見的瘋狂結果” 。

 So, the US’s sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine have raised concern in China over its large exposure to US government bonds, but it seems that it is difficult for the United States to completely decouple from China;  freezing or even confiscating China's reserve assets can only be an extremely rare crazy outcome. The popular understanding among some observers is not to worry to much.