Finland and Sweden, closer to joining NATO?

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

フィンランドとスウェーデン、ＮＡＴＯに近く加盟か

2022.04.10 Sun posted at 16:45 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 北欧のフィンランドとスウェーデンが、北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）の加入に近く踏み切る可能性が出て来た。

複数のＮＡＴＯ当局者は１０日までにＣＮＮの取材に応じ、両国の加盟に関する議論はロシアによるウクライナ侵攻以降、極めて重大な意味合いを帯びるようになったと明かした。

米国務省の複数の高官は、この問題は先週開かれたＮＡＴＯ外相会議でも取り上げられたとした。フィンランドとスウェーデンの両国外相もこの会議に加わっていたという。

ＮＡＴＯ当局者は、両国の加盟問題の議論が出てきたことはウクライナへの侵攻がＮＡＴＯの同盟関係を再活性化させたり、一体感を強めたりするだけの結果をもたらしたことを意味すると指摘。ロシアのプーチン大統領が侵攻で狙っていたＮＡＴＯ拡大の阻止とはまさに正反対の事態が到来したことになるとした。

プーチン氏は侵攻前、ロシアの安全保障を脅かすとしてＮＡＴＯによる東方への拡大や新規加盟の中止を要求。ＮＡＴＯは侵攻を受け、ウクライナへの支援を強化し、新規加盟国を迎え入れることを準備する状況になっている。

フィンランドの元首相はＣＮＮの取材に、スウェーデンを含めた２国のＮＡＴＯ加盟に関する国内世論はウクライナ戦争が続くにつれ、顕著な変質を見せたと説明。

フィンランドのマリン首相は８日、同国国会は「今後の数週間内」にＮＡＴＯ加入の問題を話し合う見通しとし、「夏の盛り前」には道筋をつけると述べた。

スウェーデンのアンデション首相は先月末、地元テレビ局との会見で、ＮＡＴＯ入りの可能性を否定しなかった。同国は現在、安全保障政策の分析を進め、５月末までにはまとめる予定となっている。スウェーデン政府当局者はＣＮＮの取材に、この分析結果を受け、政府の立場を明らかにするとした。

フィンランド政府当局者は、同国はＮＡＴＯの集団防衛の保障をやたらに求めて加盟を願っているわけではないと主張。むしろ、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻はフィンランドに根本的な問題の再考を強いる結果になったとし、ロシアとの関係は以前と同様のものにはなり得ないと強く認識しているとした。

一方、ロシアはスウェーデンとフィンランドがＮＡＴＯに合流するのなら、状況の均衡の再調整に迫られるだろうと牽制（けんせい）。ペスコフ大統領報道官は英スカイニュースとの会見で７日、ＮＡＴＯと対峙（たいじ）する同国の西方圏の安全保障の態勢をより高度な水準にせざるを得ないと強調した。

フィンランドは長大な国境線をロシアとの間に持つ。一部のＮＡＴＯ加盟国の間では同国がＮＡＴＯの保護下に入る前、ロシアが攻撃に踏み切る可能性も取り沙汰されている。

ＮＡＴＯのストルテンベルグ事務総長は、スウェーデンとフィンランドが決断したのなら加盟は容易だろうとの見解を表明。両国は長年、ＮＡＴＯと共に働いてきており、軍の相互運用や軍に対する民主的な統制などの問題でＮＡＴＯの基準に合致していると述べた。

Translation

(CNN) It ​​is possible that Finland and Sweden in Northern Europe could soon join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

NATO officials told CNN on the 10th that discussions of the two countries in joining as member would carry an extremely significant meaning since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

High-ranking U.S. Department of State officials said the issue had also been dealt with at the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting last week. Foreign Ministers of Finland and Sweden were said to have participated in the conference.

NATO officials pointed out that the debate over the issue of the two countries to join membership meant that the invasion of Ukraine had had the effect of revitalizing NATO's alliance and strengthening its sense of unity.  While the aim for Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade was to prevent NATO expansion, the exact opposite situation was coming out.

Before the invasion, Mr. Putin demanded NATO to stop expansion to the east and the suspension of new membership as these would threaten Russia's security. NATO after noting the invasion was ready to strengthen its support for Ukraine and welcome new member states.

The former Prime Minister of Finland told CNN that domestic public opinion about NATO accession by the two countries including Sweden showed a remarkable change as the Ukrainian war continued.

Finland's Prime Minister Marin said on the 8th that the parliament was expected to discuss the issue of joining NATO "in the next few weeks", and would pave the way for joining "before the summer."

Sweden's Prime Minister Andersson did not deny the possibility of joining NATO at a press conference with a local TV station at the end of last month. The country was currently conducting an analysis of its security policy and planned to finalize it by the end of May. A Swedish government official told CNN that based on the results of this analysis he would clarify the government’s position.

Finnish officials argued that the country was not thoughtlessly hoping to join NATO's collective defense guarantees. Rather, Russia's invasion of Ukraine had forced Finland to rethink its fundamental problems, and strongly come to recognize that relations with Russia could not be the same as before.

On the other hand, if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, Russia would check that it could be forced to readjust the balance of the situation. Dmitry Peskov the spokesman for Russia President emphasized at a press conference with Sky News on the 7th that they had no choice but to raise the level of security in the western region of Russia facing NATO.

Finland had a long border with Russia. Some NATO member states had also argued that Russia might jump to an attack before it came under NATO protection.

NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said it would be easy to join if Sweden and Finland decided. The two countries had been working with NATO for many years and said they met NATO standards on issues such as military interoperability and democratic control over the military.

              So, it is possible that Finland and Sweden in Northern Europe will soon join NATO. While some NATO member states worry that Russia may start an attack before applying states becoming members, I think at this time Russia is too busy to do that.