Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
EXPLAINER: What would paying for natural gas in rubles
mean? (2 of 2)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Wed, March 30, 2022, 5:31 AM
(continue)
WHAT’S PUTIN’S MOTIVE?
In theory, requiring ruble payments could support demand for
the currency and its exchange rate. But not by much, Prasad says. As it stands,
euros and dollars are already being used to purchase rubles when Gazprom
exchanges its foreign earnings.
The Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw has suggested that by moving the flow of foreign currency from Gazprom to the largely state-controlled banking system, the Kremlin will gain added control over foreign currency that has become scarcer since Western countries froze much of Russia's reserves abroad.
However, that would leave Gazprom without hard currency to make foreign debt payments or purchase supplies abroad. As it stands, the gas supplier already has to sell 80% of its foreign currency to Russia's central bank.
The ruble dispute has raised concerns it could lead to an interruption in natural gas supply. That could open Russia to charges of not adhering to long-term energy contracts, which it has done so far.
A further complication is that Europe's pipeline system is highly connected, so any attempt to restrict flows to some countries would affect the others, according to analysts at Rystad Energy. Beyond that, energy sales are a key source of revenue for Russia.
Asked if Russia could cut gas supplies to European customers if they reject the demand to pay in rubles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Monday that “we clearly aren’t going to supply gas for free.”
Two days later, he said switching currency arrangements could take time. That “could buy Europe time to search for alternatives and top up reserves,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst for the UK, Middle East and Africa at currency broker Oanda.
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT?
The German government declared an early warning of an energy emergency. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Wednesday that the move was precautionary as Russia was still fulfilling its contracts so far. But he appealed to companies and households to start reducing their natural gas consumption.
A crisis team will step up monitoring of the gas supply in the first of three emergency stages. The final stage would mean government regulators decide which industrial users have their gas shut off, sparing homes and hospitals but dealing a blow to an economy already suffering high inflation and supply bottlenecks.
It's possible Putin is bluffing. Russia had threatened to use rubles to pay foreign investors who hold government bonds dominated in dollars. It went through with a dollar payment after ratings agencies said paying in rubles would put Russia in default.
When it comes to gas payments, “Putin may demand rubles, but the contracts are clear," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. "His only option to force change is to refuse to deliver products, and that cannot happen: He can’t keep oil and gas from coming out of the ground without capping wells, and storage capacity will get filled very fast if shipments stop cold. ”
“So let’s call it a bluff,” Weinberg said. “Russia cannot stop shipping product any more than Germany and the EU can stop buying it.”
WHY IS ENERGY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE WAR?
The European economy remains heavily dependent on Russia for 40% of its gas imports and 25% of its oil.
The U.S. and the United Kingdom have said they will stop buying Russian oil, and Poland said it will halt purchases of Russian oil and coal this year.
Europe as a whole is much more dependent on Russian energy than the U.S. and the UK, and leaders have shied away from a continent-wide boycott. They have focused on reducing their imports over the next several years through conservation, other sources and switching to wind and solar as fast as possible.
Estimates vary of the impact of a total gas shutoff in
Europe, but they generally involve a substantial loss of economic output.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, gets more than half its natural gas for home
heating, electricity generation and industry from Russia.
Translation
普京的動機是什麼？
Prasad說, 從理論上講，要求盧布支付可以支持對該貨幣及其匯率的需求,
但不是很多。就目前而言，當俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司兑換其國外收入時，歐元和美元已經被用來購買盧布。
華沙東方研究中心認為，通過將外匯從俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司轉移到主要由國家控制的銀行系統，克里姆林宮將獲得對外匯的更多控制。由於西方國家凍結了俄羅斯在國外的大部分儲備, 外匯变得更可貴。
然而，這將使俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司沒有硬通貨來支付外債或在國外購買供應品。就目前而言，這家天然氣供應商已經不得不將其 80% 的外匯出售給俄羅斯央行。
盧布爭端引發了人們對可能導致天然氣供應中斷的擔憂。這可能會讓俄羅斯面臨不遵守長期能源合同的指控，而迄今為止它已經這樣做了。
Rystad Energy 的分析師表示，更複雜的情況是歐洲的管道系統高度連接，因此任何限制流向某些國家的嘗試都會影響其他國家。除此之外，能源銷售是俄羅斯的主要收入來源。
當被問及如果歐洲客戶拒絕以盧布支付的要求，俄羅斯是否會削減對他們的天然氣供應時，克里姆林宮發言人Dmitry Peskov週一告訴記者， “我們顯然不會免費供應天然氣。”
兩天后，他說轉換貨幣安排可能需要時間。貨幣經紀商 Oanda 負責英國、中東和非洲的高級市場分析師 Craig Erlam 表示，這“可以為歐洲爭取時間來尋找替代品並增加儲備”。
威脅有多真實？
德國政府宣布了能源緊急情況的早期預警。副總理Robert Habeck週三表示，此舉是預防性的，因為迄今為止俄羅斯仍在履行其合同。但他呼籲公司和家庭開始減少天然氣消耗。
他在柏林對記者說： “俄羅斯方面有些意見說，如果不發生這種情況（以盧布支付），那麼供應將被停止。”
危機小組將在三個緊急階段的第一個階段加強對天然氣供應的監測。最後階段將意味著政府監管機構決定關閉哪些工業用戶的天然氣，從而保護家庭和醫院，但會打擊對已經遭受高通脹和供應樽頸影响的經濟。
普京可能是在虛張聲勢。俄羅斯曾威脅要使用盧布支付持有以美元為主的政府債券的外國投資者。在評級機構表示以盧布支付將使俄羅斯違約後，它支付了美元。
紐約 High Frequency Economics in White Plains首席經濟學家兼董事總經理 Carl Weinberg 說： “在天然氣支付方面， “普京可能會要求盧布，但合同有明確的要求” 。他強迫改變的唯一選擇是拒絕交付產品，而這不可能發生：他不能在不封井的情況下阻止石油和天然氣從地下流出，如果貨物完全停止，存儲容量將很快被用盡” 。
Weinberg說: “所以我們稱之為虛張聲勢”; “俄羅斯不能停止運送產品，就像德國和歐盟不能停止購買一樣” 。
為什麼能源是戰爭中的一個重要因素？
歐洲經濟仍然嚴重依賴俄羅斯，佔其 40% 的天然氣進口和 25% 的石油進口。
美國和英國已表示將停止購買俄羅斯石油，波蘭表示將在今年停止購買俄羅斯石油和煤炭。
與美國和英國相比，整個歐洲對俄羅斯能源的依賴程度要高得多，領導人也迴避了整個歐洲大陸的抵制。在接下來的幾年裡，他們專注於通過節約、用其他資源以及盡快轉向風能和太陽能來減少進口。
對歐洲總天然氣關閉的影響的估計各不相同，但它們通常會導致經濟生產的大量損失。作為歐洲最大的經濟體，德國一半以上的天然氣來自俄羅斯，以用於家庭取暖、發電和工業。
So, when it comes to gas
payments, while Putin may demand rubles, the contracts do not permit this
change. It seems that his only option to force change is to refuse to deliver
products, and that cannot happen: He can’t keep oil and gas from coming out of
the ground without capping wells, and its storage capacity will get filled up
very soon if shipments are stopped completely.
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