China Business Situation Index falls below 50 for the first time in 5 months - Corona restriction is a burden in March

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国景況指数5カ月ぶり50割れ　3月、コロナ規制が重荷

中国・台湾

2022年3月31日 10:51

【北京=川手伊織】中国国家統計局が31日発表した2022年3月の製造業購買担当者景気指数（PMI）は49.5と、前月より0.7ポイント低下した。5カ月ぶりに好不調の境目である50を下回った。新型コロナウイルスの感染再拡大に伴う一部都市での事実上の都市封鎖（ロックダウン）やウクライナ情勢の緊迫化に伴う資源高で景況感が悪化した。

PMIは製造業3000社を対象に調べる。新規受注や生産、従業員数など項目ごとに調査する。50を上回れば前月より拡大、下回れば縮小を示す。

分野別にみると、生産は0.9ポイント下落し49.5となった。21年10月以来の50割れとなった。新規受注と従業員数もそれぞれ1.9ポイント、0.6ポイント悪化した。需要が伸びず、新規雇用に慎重な企業が増えている。

3月に限ってみると、指数の悪化は遡れる05年以降で初めてだ。例年は春節（旧正月）休暇がある1～2月より生産が上振れしやすい。夏秋の出荷に向けて3月から人員を増やす企業が多いことも指数を押し上げてきた。

22年3月の悪化は、新型コロナの市中感染が急速に広がったためだ。広東省深圳市などが事実上の都市封鎖に踏み切り、サプライチェーン（供給網）が混乱した。調査日は22～25日のため、28日に始まった上海市の封鎖の影響は含まない。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻に伴う資源高も企業心理を冷やしている。

同時に発表した3月の非製造業のビジネス活動指数は48.4だった。2月から3.2ポイント落ち込み、21年8月以来7カ月ぶりに50を割り込んだ。地方のインフラ投資で建設業は堅調だったが、新型コロナの移動制限で宿泊や飲食、娯楽などのサービス業が節目の50を下回った。

Translation

[Beijing = Iori Kawate] The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March 2022 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 31st was 49.5, down 0.7 points from the previous month. It fell below 50, which was the boundary between good and bad, for the first time in 5 months. Business sentiment deteriorated due to the de facto shut down of some cities (lockdown) due to the debounce of the new coronavirus infection and the high price in resource due to the tense situation in Ukraine.

PMI surveyed 3,000 manufacturing companies. Survey by item such as new orders, production, and the number of employees. If it exceeded 50, it indicated an expansion from the previous month, and if it fell below 50, it indicated a contraction.

By field, production fell 0.9 points to 49.5. It fell below 50 for the first time since October 2021. New orders and the number of employees also respectively deteriorated by 1.9 points and 0.6 points. Demand was not growing and more companies were cautious about employing new staff.

As far as the month of March was concerned, a deterioration in the index was the first time since 2005. Production tended to be higher than January-February, when there was a Chinese New Year holiday every year. The fact that many companies were increasing their workforce from March toward shipments in the summer and autumn usually pushed up the index.

The deterioration in March 2010 was due to the rapid spread of the new corona infection in the city community. Shenzhen City in Guangdong Province etc. had decided to virtually block the city, and the supply chains were disrupted. Since the survey date was 22th to 25th, the impact of the blockade of Shanghai City that started on the 28th was not included. The high resource prices associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine had also cooled corporate sentiment.

The non-manufacturing business activity index for March released at the same time was 48.4. It fell by 3.2 points from February and fell below 50 for the first time in 7 months since August 2021. The construction industry was strong due to investment in local infrastructure, but the service industry such as accommodation, eating and drinking, and entertainment fell below the critical point of 50 due to the movement restrictions because of the new Corona.

              So, the PMI for March 2022 announced by China is 49.5, down 0.7 points from the previous month. The deterioration in March is due to the rapid spread of the new corona infections in a few cities that cause lockdown. When the new corona infections end, probably the index will go up again.