一位經濟學家解釋了為什麼沙特阿拉伯和中國正在尋求在一項新的石油交易中放棄美元 - 以及北京在擴大人民幣採用率的過程中下一步的目標是什麼

Recently Yahoo Finance reported the following:

An economist explains why Saudi Arabia and China are looking to ditch the dollar in a new oil deal — and where Beijing could target next as it spreads yuan adoption

Phil Rosen

Sat, March 19, 2022, 5:15 a.m.

A potential yuan-based oil deal between Saudi Arabia and China could signal more unease with reliance on the US dollar, while also serving as a preview of how Beijing could advance its currency in other parts of the world.

The Wall Street Journal reported recently that Saudi Arabia is in talks to sell oil to China and be paid in yuan, after trading crude exclusively in dollars for nearly 50 years. Both countries could benefit from a demotion of the dollar's status on the world stage, according to Aleksandar Tomic, an economist, professor and associate dean at Boston College.

"While any deal would be symbolic, the Chinese are not alone in the search for a non-dollar reserve currency," Tomic told Insider. "Other countries' need for dollars exposes them to the US financial sector, and consequently gives the US political leverage."

Some analysts have downplayed the chances of a yuan deal, pointing out that the Saudi riyal is pegged to the dollar, helping shield its economy from volatility.

But the effectiveness of the West's sanctions against Russia has been a wake-up call for countries seeking to reduce their reliance on the US, while other regimes worry that they could be next if they cross Washington, Tomic said.

"A potential deal in yuan is a sign that the world is looking for some counterweight to the US dollar," he said.

One reason Saudi Arabia is considering an oil deal in yuan is because it would create exposure to a currency other than the dollar, and affords the country a yuan-based hedge. Another factor could be the Saudis don't anticipate the dollar to be as stable moving forward, especially if the US increases its money supply in response to economic challenges, Tomic said.

Meanwhile, China has long pushed for the yuan to supplant the dollar, and the collapse of major financial institutions in Russia means chances are higher now than ever for a sea change, he said. Plus, the international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine also looms.

"An extreme view would be that it reduces China's vulnerability to sanctions that the West may impose should China do something that the US and its allies oppose," Tomic added.

But two things that must happen for China's yuan to establish itself as a reserve currency. First, global faith in the dollar would have to wane. This could happen if the Federal Reserve fails to get inflation under control, or if it veers from its usual predictability, Tomic said.

Second, China would have to prove the long-term stability of the yuan to win the trust of other nations. But China devalues its currency occasionally to boost exports, and countries won't want to hold a currency like that, he noted. So Beijing would have to commit to more responsible policy.

Still, China maintains global ambitions for the yuan, and Africa is the most likely place where it could displace the dollar, Tomic said. China plays an outsized role in African economies as the continent's largest bilateral creditor and source of foreign investment.

And China already has considerable infrastructure in place in Africa, which isn't as contested a market as Europe is, he explained.

But for China to supplant the dollar as a global reserve currency, its economic standing would have to rise while the US's fell.

"If the US doesn't do anything unpredictable, then other countries will continue to trust its currency," Tomic said. "Challenges to the dollar have come before, but none have taken hold because when things turn volatile, the US tends to be stable. So the dollar persists."

Translation

沙特阿拉伯和中國之間潛在的以人民幣為基礎的石油交易,可能表明對美元的依賴更多不安，同時也可以作為北京如何在世界其他地區推進其貨幣的預演。

《華爾街日報》最近報導稱，在過去近 50 年一直以美元交易原油後，沙特阿拉伯正在就向中國出售石油並以人民幣支付款項進行談判。波士頓學院經濟學家、教授兼副院長 Aleksandar Tomic 表示，這兩個國家都可以從美元在世界舞台上的地位下降中受益。

Tomic告訴 Insider: “雖然任何交易都具有像徵意義，但在尋找非美元儲備貨幣的過程中，中國人並不孤單”; “其他國家對美元的需求使它們暴露於美國金融區，從而賦予美國政治籌碼。”

一些分析師淡化了人民幣交易的可能性，指出沙特里亞爾與美元掛鉤，有助於保護其經濟免受波動的影響。

Tomic說，但西方對俄羅斯制裁的有效性, 对尋求減少對美國依賴的國家敲響了警鐘，而其他政權則擔心，如果他們反對華盛頓，他們可能會成為下一個。

他說: “潛在的人民幣交易是一個跡象，表明世界正在尋找一些制衡美元的手段”。

沙特阿拉伯考慮以人民幣進行石油交易的一個原因是，它會產生對美元以外的貨幣的敞口，並為該國提供以人民幣為基礎的對沖。 Tomic 表示，另一個因素可能是沙特人預計美元不會繼續穩定，特別是如果美國增加貨幣供應以應對經濟挑戰。

他說與此同時，中國長期以來一直在推動人民幣取代美元，而俄羅斯主要金融機構的崩潰意味著現在發生巨變的機會比以往任何時候都高。此外，國際社會對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的反應也迫在眉睫。

Tomic補充說:“一個極端的觀點是，如果中國做一些美國及其盟友反對的事情，它會降低西方對中國可能施加的製裁攻擊或傷害”。

Tomic說, 要讓人民幣成為儲備貨幣，必需發生兩件事。首先，全球對美元的信心已減弱。如果美聯儲未能控制通脹，或者它偏離了通常的可預測性，這可能會發生。

其次，中國必須證明人民幣的長期穩定才能贏得其他國家的信任。但他指出，中國偶爾會貶值其貨幣以促進出口，各國不會希望持有這樣的貨幣。因此，北京必須承諾採取更負責任的政策。

Tomic說，儘管如此，中國仍對人民幣保持全球雄心，非洲是最有可能取代美元的地方。作為非洲大陸最大的雙邊債權國和外國投資來源國，中國在非洲經濟體中發揮著巨大的作用。

他解釋說，中國已經在非洲建立了相當多的基礎設施，這個市場不像歐洲那樣競爭激烈。

但中國要取代美元成為全球儲備貨幣，其經濟地位必須上升，而美國則下降。

Tomic說:“如果美國不做任何不可預測的事情，那麼其他國家將繼續信任其貨幣” ;“對美元的挑戰之前已經出現，但沒有一個能站穩腳，因為當事情變得動盪時，美國往往會保持穩定。所以美元會持續存在” 。

       So, the effectiveness of the West's sanctions against Russia has been a wake-up call for countries like China who are seeking to reduce their reliance on the US. It is understandable that CCP may worry that they could be next if they cross Washington by attacking Taiwan.