新型コロナ感染者「ゼロ」は岩手、鳥取の2県 理由を探ってみた
毎日新聞 2020/04/10 06:00
新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大が止まらない。政府が首都圏や関西圏など7都府県を対象に初めて緊急事態宣言を発令する中、岩手、鳥取の2県では、感染者が今も確認されていない。全国的に続々と新たな感染者が判明する中、踏みとどまっている2県。各県の担当者や専門家に話を聞き、理由を探ってみた。【小鍜冶孝志】
岩手県独自の対策があるのか、県のホームページ上で公開されている情報を確認してみた。しかし、手洗いやうがい、アルコール消毒の推奨など一般的な予防策の記載が並び、目立った記述はない。同県の担当者に、特別な感染予防対策があるのか聞いてみた。三浦節夫・感染症担当課長は「もしあれば、こちらが教えてほしい」。ただ、2県の共通点については「人の往来が少ない点は共通している」と話す。
鳥取県の推計人口は約55万人で全国で最も少ない。岩手県も約122万人で全国で30番台の少なさだ。岩手県の三浦課長は「当然ながら接触が少ないと感染するリスクも減る」と言う。
鳥取県の担当者も「人口が少ないことに加え、大都市圏と比較し交流人口も少ない」などと語り、同様の見解を示す。鳥取県はインターネット上などで「コロナ疎開」の行き先として話題に上ることもあるが、同県の平井伸治知事は記者会見で「感染拡大防止や外出自粛に反すると自覚してほしい」と指摘し、同県担当者も「人が集まればそれだけリスクは高まる」と警戒している。
一方、岩手県は人口密度も低い。県土は約1万5000平方キロで本州一の面積を誇り、四国4県に匹敵する。総務省のデータ（2015年時点）によると、岩手の人口密度は1平方キロ当たり83人で、北海道に次いで低い。密閉、密集、密接の「3密」になりにくい環境も影響しているとみられ、三浦課長は「県土の大きさも一因ではないか」と説明する。
ただ、感染のリスクと隣り合わせの状況は変わらず、「すでに感染者が出ているのではないか」という声も上がる。3月末には、北海道小樽市で新型コロナウイルスの感染が確認された40代男性と濃厚接触していた岩手県内の4人がPCR検査を受けた。結果は陰性だったが、2週間の健康観察となった。
岩手県によると、8日までに県内で実施したPCR検査は、わずか127件だけ。岩手より人口が少ない鳥取県と比較しても検査数で劣る。三浦課長は「保菌者がいた可能性は完全に否定はできない」とした上で「重症者がいれば必ず情報が上がってくる。その報告はない」としている。
専門家にも意見を聞いてみた。感染症に詳しい「けいゆう病院」（横浜市）の菅谷憲夫医師は「人口がまばらで、東京や大阪など都市部との行き来も少ない。感染者が出ていない理由として、間違いないだろう」と話す。その上で、都市部を中心に人から人への感染が拡大していると指摘し、「ウイルスは風に運ばれて人に感染するわけではない。人同士の接触が少ない県は、当然感染のリスクも低くなる」と見解を示した。
Translation
The spread of the new coronavirus infection had not stop.
While the government issued an emergency declaration for the first time in
seven prefectures, such as the Tokyo metropolitan area and the Kansai area, no
cases had been confirmed in Iwate and Tottori. These two prefectures were holding
their ground as new cases of infection were identified one after another
nationwide. We spoke with the staff and experts in each prefecture to find out the
reason for that. [Takashi Kogaji]
I checked the information published on the Iwate
Prefecture's website to look for unique measures in this prefecture. There were
only descriptions of general precautionary measures such as hand washing,
gargle, and recommendation of alcohol disinfection; no eye-catching description
could be found. I asked a person in charge of the prefecture if there were any
special infection prevention measures. Setsuo Miura, the Chief of Infectious
Diseases Section said "If you have one, please let me know." However,
regarding the commonalities between the two prefectures, he said, "The
common point is that there is little interaction of people."
A person in charge of Tottori Prefecture also expressed the
same view, saying that "In addition to the small population, the number of
moving people is smaller than those in large metropolitan areas." On the
Internet and the like Tottori Prefecture was sometimes being talked about as a destination
for "corona evacuation". Governor Shinji Hirai of the prefecture pointed
out at a press conference that "I hope people have self awareness in
stopping the spread of infection and refraining from going out." A person
in charge of the prefecture also warned that "the
more people gather, the higher is the risk."
On the other hand, Iwate Prefecture had a low population
density. The prefecture's land was about 15,000 square kilometers and boasted to
have the largest area in Honshu, comparable to the four prefectures in Shikoku.
According to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (as
of 2015), the population density of Iwate was 83 people per square kilometer,
the second lowest after Hokkaido. It seemed that the “three tights” environmental
situations – tight closure, tight crowding, and tight contact that were
difficult to found here also had some effect and Mr. Miura explained that “the
size of the prefectural land may also be a factor”.
However, as the risk of infection and the situation next to it
remained unchanged, some people asked, "Is there already an infected
person?" At the end of March, four people in Iwate Prefecture who had been
in close contact with a man in his 40s confirmed to have been infected with the
new coronavirus in Otaru of Hokkaido were tested by PCR. The results were
negative, but a two-week health observation was needed.
According to Iwate Prefecture, only 127 PCR tests were
conducted in the prefecture by the 8th. In Tottori Prefecture, which had a
smaller population than Iwate, the number of tests was lower. Miura on top of
thinking that "We cannot completely deny the possibility that there may be
a virus carrier," had supposed that "If there is a severely ill
person, the information will always be submitted. There is no such reporting."
We asked experts for their opinions. Dr. Norio Sugaya of
"Keiyu Hospital" (Yokohama City), which was familiar with infectious
diseases said "The population is sparse, and there are few traffics with
urban areas such as Tokyo and Osaka. No doubt this is a reason for no infected
people." Further he pointed out that the spread of human-to-human
transmission was increasing in the center of the urban area; and showed the understanding
that "The virus is not transmitted by the wind to infect people. In
prefectures with few human contacts, of course the risk of infection is also
lower."
Mr. Miura
of Iwate Prefecture has rightly pointed out a simple fact: “no contact, no
infection” among the people. The irony is that modern societies are enjoying
the benefit of globalization, and human have been pushing for trade between
different regions since time immemorial. One noticeable example of such an effort
is for the Chinese to use the Silk Road to do business with Europe over a
thousand years ago (now they are talking about One Belt One Road). When regional
trade expands into a global scale, thanks to improvements in communications
(such as the Internet) and transportation (such as container-vessels and cargo-planes), we have globalization. John Donne in 1624 had written that “No man is
an Island, entire of it self; every man is a piece of the Continent, a part of
the main.” So, human have a long tradition in trying to connect with each another by land, sea and air. An interesting question is: how will Covid-19
impact globalization in the future?
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