資源業務:大企業成績分明、“鑑辨力”是關鍵

A few weeks ago the Asahi News on-line reported the following:

資源ビジネス、大手商社で明暗　「目利き力」がカギ

宮崎健、古賀大己

2014年11月10日00時20分

　商社の資源ビジネスで、業績の明暗が分かれている。７日までに出そろった大手商社の２０１４年９月中間決算で、その差がはっきり出た。大きな利益を生むが、失敗した時の損失も大きいこのビジネスの難しさが浮き彫りになっている。

　「我々には『見抜く力』が身についていない」

　住友商事の中村邦晴社長は、４日の決算説明会で、そう振り返った。９月中間期に計上した資源ビジネスの純損失は１０５３億円に達する。米国でのシェールオイル開発失敗などが原因だ。この結果、１８年ぶりに中間赤字に陥った。今後の資源ビジネスの見直しは避けられない情勢だ。

　中国や新興国経済の急成長を背景に、００年代に入り、一躍資源ビジネスは脚光を浴びた。大手商社も相次いで、海外の開発案件に投資し、大きな利益を上げた。

　しかし、いま、中国の景気減速やインドの発展の遅れなどで、資源価格は低迷している。大手商社などによると、天然ガス（米国の先物価格）は０８年からは３分の１に、鉄鉱石（中国向けスポット価格平均）も１１年当時の半分ほどに落ち込む。資源価格が高ければ巨額の投資をしても採算がとれた開発も、資源価格が下がれば赤字になる。

　そうした中でも資源ビジネスが増益となったのが三菱商事と三井物産だ。ともに１千億円を超える利益をたたき出した。

　この差は「目利き力」（関係者）だという。三菱商事は１９５８年にチリで鉄鉱石開発に乗り出す。三井物産もグループ会社を通じて６０年代には資源ビジネスに乗り出した。この経験が生み出す力だ。資源メジャーといわれる世界大手との関係が深く、厳選された案件も持ち込まれやすい。

　三菱商事は豪州の炭鉱山で約７００人のリストラを実施するなど、効率化も進める。「足元２、３年をいかに我慢するかだ。その次に備えてコスト態勢を構築しておけば、中長期的には資源関連の潜在力を上げられる」（三菱商事の内野州馬・最高財務責任者）

　資源ビジネスの恩恵は、石油開発会社にもある。資源開発で実績がある石油資源開発は７日発表の中間決算で、経常利益が２４７億円で過去最高となった。イラクで開発した油田で生産が始まったことや、１３年にカナダでシェールガスの権益を取得したことが寄与した。１８年末からカナダ液化天然ガス（ＬＮＧ）にする基地をつくり、年間１２０万トンを輸入する計画を進める。同社の山下通郎執行役員は「新しい収益基盤として海外シフトを進めたい」と話す。（宮崎健、古賀大己）

(試譯文)

   Regarding trading companies’ resource business, there was a difference in their achievement. About the interim closing as at September 2014, for the major trading firms that came out on the 7th, the difference was clearly shown. While huge benefit could be generated, yet when the business failed, it was also costly; the difficulty in this business stood out.

   “‘The power to see through’ is not built inside our body”.

    On the 4th (November) during an accounting briefing session, President Kuniharu Nakamura of the Sumitomo Corporation looked back. Business net loss in resources appropriated into the September midterm amounted to 105,300 million yen. The reason was its shale oil development failure in USA. As a result, for the first time in 18 years it had a midterm deficit. In reconsidering future business on resources, this situation could not be avoided.

   Against the background of a rapid growth in China and other developing economies, entering 2000’s, suddenly resource business was in the limelight. Major trading firms also invested in overseas development items successively and big profits were made.

   But now the price of resources was sluggish due to China’s slowdown and India’s delay in development. According to a major trading firm, for natural gas (American value of futures) it fell by 1/3 since 2008. The iron ore (average spot price for China) also fell by half since 2011. When the price of resources was high, even if huge investments were made, the profit could pay for the development; but when the price of resources went down, companies went into the red.

   Among these, it was the resource business of Mitsubishi and Mitsui that had increased profits. Together their profit went beyond 100,000 million yen.

   It was said that the difference was "the power of sharp eyes" (of the people concerned). Mitsubishi ventured into iron ore exploration in Chile in 1958. Mitsui also went into resource business in the 1960s through a group company. It was this experience that produced the power. Their relationship with the so call world leaders of key resources was deep; carefully selected items were easy to be brought in.

   Mitsubishi was conducting a restructuring of about 700 people in a coal mine in Australia, and was also advancing its efficiency. (Chief Financial Officer Shuuma Uchino of Mitsubishi): "It is about how to set the footing for 2 or 3 years with patience. Next was to get ready, once you have built the costing preparation, medium to long term resource-related potential could be increased".

   Also benefited from the resource business were the petroleum developers. Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. which had a good performance record in resource development announced on the 7^th its interim closing with the ordinary profit 24,700 million yen, being the best so far. Contributions came from the starting in production of an oil field developed in Iraq, and the shale gas interest acquired in Canada in 2013. Centering on the base that would start producing Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the end of 2018, a plan to import 1,200,000 tons a year was being advanced. Yamashita Michio the Executive Officer of the said company suggested that “as a new revenue base, I would like to advance the shifting towards overseas".

In view of the recent slump in crude oil prices, I am wondering whether it would affect the profits of the resource business in Japan.