ＧＤＰ悪化、年率減１・９％…推翻向上修正估計

Last month the Yomiuri News on-line reported the following:

ＧＤＰ悪化、年１・９％減…上方修正予想覆す

2014年12月08日 11時54分

　内閣府は８日、７～９月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の改定値を発表した。

　物価の変動の影響を除いた実質ＧＤＰ（季節調整値）は前期比０・５％減で、このペースが１年間続くと仮定した場合の年率換算は１・９％減だった。１１月に発表した速報値（年率１・６％減）から０・３ポイントの下方修正となった。民間調査機関の大半が上方修正を見込む中での予想外の結果となり、消費税率引き上げ後の景気低迷が改めて鮮明になった。

　２四半期連続のマイナス成長だったことは変わらない。改定値のマイナス幅が拡大したのは、設備投資が速報値の０・２％減から０・４％減に下方修正されたのが大きい。不動産や電気工事などで投資が減った。

　１日発表の７～９月期の法人企業統計は、金融業・保険業を除く全産業の設備投資が、前年同期比５・５％増だった。ＧＤＰもプラスに転じるとの見方さえ出たが、この統計に含まれない小規模事業者などもＧＤＰの計算では対象になる。その結果、全体の設備投資はマイナスとなった。

　ＧＤＰは１年前との比較ではなく、前期（４～６月期）と比較する点も異なる。

(試譯文)

On the 8th (December), the Cabinet Office announced the revised value of the gross domestic product (GDP) covering July to September.

   For the real GDP that excluded the influence of prices fluctuation (the seasonally adjusted value), when compared with the previous quarter it was a decrease of 0.5 %; and when assuming this pace would continue, the annual rates in one year would be a 1.9 % decrease. It was a 0.3 point downward revision from the quick estimate value released in November (a 1.6 % decrease in annual rate). It was a result unexpected by most of the private investigating institutions which expected an upward revision; it became clear once more that there was an economic slump after the consumption tax increase.

  There was no change in the fact that there was a negative growth for two consecutive quarters. Those investments that had an expanded scope in minus were in plants and equipment, it was a big downward revision in the quick estimate value of from 0.2 % to 0.4 %. Investment in land property and electric construction had also decreased.

According to the corporation statistics announced on the 1st covering July to September, except for the banking business and insurance industries, capital investment in all industries was a 5.5% increase on a year-on-year comparison. While some view points had come out that GDP might also turn into a plus, for the calculation of the GDP, those small scale enterprises that were not included in the corporation statistics were also covered. As a result, the overall investment in plants and equipment became a minus.

The points of comparison were different, not only compared with the GDP a year ago, but also with the previous term (April-June).

It is clear that an increase in consumption tax could negatively affect Japan’s economy.