Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
China's aircraft carriers play 'theatrical' role but pose
little threat yet (1/2)
Fri, May 5, 2023 at 2:04 a.m. GMT+1
By Greg Torode, Eduardo Baptista and Tim Kelly
HONG KONG (Reuters) - When China sailed one of its two
active aircraft carriers, the Shandong, east of Taiwan last month as part of
military drills surrounding the island, it was showcasing a capability that it
has yet to master and could take years to perfect.
As Beijing modernizes its military, its formidable missile forces and other naval vessels, such as cutting-edge cruisers, are posing a concern for the U.S. and its allies. But it could be more than a decade before China can mount a credible carrier threat far from its shores, according to four military attaches and six defence analysts familiar with regional naval deployments.
Instead, China's carriers are more of a propaganda showpiece, with doubts about their value in a possible conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan and about whether China could protect them on longer-range missions into the Pacific and Indian oceans, the attaches and analysts told Reuters.
China's Defence Ministry did not respond to questions about its carrier program, though dozens of articles in state-linked journals reviewed by Reuters reveal awareness among Chinese military analysts about shortcomings in the country's carrier capability.
While some regional press coverage, partially based on Chinese state media reports, portrayed recent drills around Taiwan as active patrols and a military challenge to the U.S. and its allies, the Chinese carriers are effectively still in training mode, eight of the experts said.
Landing of aircraft at night and in bad weather, for instance - crucial to regular offshore carrier operations - remain far from routine, several of the attaches and analysts said.
And in a conflict, China's carriers would be vulnerable to missile and submarine attacks, some of the experts said, noting the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has not perfected protective screening operations, particularly anti-submarine warfare.
"Unlike other parts of their military modernisation, there is something politically theatrical about their carrier deployments so far," said Trevor Hollingsbee, a former British naval intelligence analyst.
"Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China's got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go."
At times, China's carrier pilots have relied on land-based airfields for takeoffs or landings, as well as for extra air cover and surveillance, the attaches told Reuters on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly.
And though China's Liaoning and Shandong carriers have each sailed into the western Pacific in recent months, approaching U.S. bases on Guam, they remained within range of coastal Chinese airfields, according to Rira Momma, professor of security studies at Takushoku University's Institute of World Studies, who reviewed Japanese defence ministry tracking data.
Both the Liaoning - a refitted ex-Soviet vessel - and the Chinese-built Shandong have jump ramps for take offs, which limit the number and range of aircraft on board.
Anti-submarine helicopters operate from both carriers and China's Type 055 cruisers but the carriers have yet to deploy an early warning aircraft, relying so far on land-based planes, the 10 experts said.
A new plane, the KJ-600, designed to perform a similar role to the E-2C/D Hawkeye launched from U.S. carriers, is still in testing, according to the Pentagon's latest annual report on China's military.
FROM SKI JUMPS TO CATAPULTS
As the Liaoning and Shandong gradually increase the tempo of their drills, China is preparing for sea trials of its next-generation carrier, the 80,000-tonne Fujian, state media reported last month. The Fujian is significantly larger, though conventionally powered, and will launch aircraft from electromagnetic catapults.
The ship, which the Pentagon report said could be operational by 2024, is expected to carry new variants of the J-15 jet fighter, replacing the existing model that foreign analysts consider underpowered.
"The Fujian, with its more modern capabilities, will be just another test bed for a good few years," said Collin Koh, a defence scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
"It won't be until we see the next generation of carriers that the Chinese designs and the PLAN's intentions will really settle down."
(to be continued)
Translation
香港（路透社）- 當中國兩艘現役航空母艦之一 - 山東號 - 上個月在台灣東部作為環島軍事演習的一部分航行時，它炫耀了一種它尚未掌握, 並且可能需要數年時間才能完美地掌握的能力。
隨著北京對其軍隊進行現代化改造，其強大的導彈部隊和尖端巡洋艦等其他海軍艦艇正引起美國及其盟友的擔憂。 但據四名武官和六名熟悉地區海軍部署的國防分析人士稱，中國可能需要十多年的時間才能在遠離其海岸的地方發起可信的航母威脅。
這些武官和分析人士告訴路透社，中國的航母更像是一個宣傳品，人們懷疑它們在與美國就台灣可能發生的衝突中的價值，以及中國是否可以保護它們去執行更遠距離的太平洋和印度洋任務.
中國國防部沒有回應有關其航母計劃的問題，儘管路透社看到的與國家相關的期刊上的數十篇文章顯示，中國軍事分析人士意識到中國航母能力的弱點。
八位專家表示，雖然部分地區媒體報導（部分基於中國官方媒體報導）將最近在台灣附近的演習描述為積極巡邏和對美國及其盟友的軍事挑戰，但中國航母實際上仍處於訓練模式。
一些武官和分析人士表示，例如，飛機在夜間和惡劣天氣下降落 - 這對海上航母的正常運營至關重要 - 仍然距離例行操作甚遠。
一些專家表示，在衝突中，中國的航母很容易受到導彈和潛艇的攻擊，並指出中國人民解放軍海軍 (PLAN) 尚未完善保護性篩查行動，尤其是反潛戰。
前英國海軍情報分析師 Trevor Hollingsbee 說: “與他們軍事現代化的其他部分不同，到目前為止，他們的航母部署在政治上有些戲劇化” 。
“航母運營是一個非常複雜的遊戲，中國必須自己解決這個問題。它還有很長很長的路要走。”
由於未獲公開發言授權而不願透露姓名的一些武官告訴路透社，有時，中國的航母飛行員依靠陸基機場進行起飛或降落，以及進行額外的空中掩護和監視。
拓殖大学海外事情研究所教授 (Takushoku University's Institute of World Studies) Rira Momma ， 在審查了日本防衛省的跟踪數據後表示，雖然中國的遼寧艦和山東艦最近幾個月分別駛入西太平洋，接近美國在關島的基地，但它們仍在中國沿海機場的航程之內。
遼寧艦 - 一艘改裝的前蘇聯船隻 - 和中國建造的山東艦都有起飛用的跳板，這限制了機載飛機的數量和航程。
10 位專家表示，航母和中國的 055 型巡洋艦都配備了反潛直升機，但航母尚未部署預警機，目前仍依賴陸基飛機。
根據五角大樓關於中國軍方的最新年度報告，一架名為 KJ-600 的新型飛機仍在測試中，該飛機旨在執行與從美國航母彈射的 E-2C/D 鷹眼類似的任務。
從滑跳台到彈射器
據官方媒體上月報導，隨著遼寧艦和山東艦的演習節奏逐漸加快，中國正準備對其下一代航母 - 8 萬噸級的福建艦進行海試。 福建號雖然採用常規動力，但要大得多，並且將用電磁彈射器彈射飛機。
五角大樓的報告稱，這艘戰艦將於 2024 年投入使用，預計將搭載 J-15 噴氣式戰鬥機的新型號，以取代外國分析人士認為動力不足的現有型號。
新加坡 S. Rajaratnam 國際研究學院的國防學者 Collin Koh 說： “福建號擁有更現代化的能力，未來幾年將只是另一個試驗台。”
“直到我們看到下一代航母，中國的設計和中國海軍的意圖才會真正定下來。”
（待續）
Note:
Takushoku
University has set up six
research institutes – Language & Culture Research Institute, Institute
of World Studies, the Research Institute for Global Japanese Studies,
Institute for International Development, Research Institute of Japanese
Language Education, and Shariah Research Institute.
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