垃圾債券市場在利率上升的新時代中萎縮

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

The Junk Bond Market Is Shrinking in a New Era of Rising Rates

Giulia Morpurgo and Olivia Raimonde

Thu, April 13, 2023 at 7:47 a.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- From New York to London, a key part of the credit market is shrinking.

The amount of US junk bonds fell 11% from its peak in October 2021 to $1.41 trillion, according to a Bloomberg index tracking corporate high-yield debt. A similar European gauge has fallen 15% from its highest level.

That marks the end of years of growth — including a record for issuance in 2021 as borrowers sought to lock in ultra-low yields in the wake of the pandemic. It comes as chief financial officers face refinancing costs at almost three times the price they would have paid at the start of 2022 — leading some to look at alternative funding options — or even to pay down debt.

“The biggest driver is the impact of the leveraged loan and private credit market which has seen a lot of volume,” said Colleen Cunniffe, head of global taxable credit research at Vanguard Group Inc.

As interest rate hikes got underway last year, borrowers picked leveraged loans over junk bonds to finance many deals because their floating rate nature and typically shorter maturities were seen as more attractive to investors. At the same time, many buyouts — including multi-billion deals like Zendesk Inc. — were funded by private credit firms offering rates below those available in the volatility-lashed public markets.

Other companies are skipping the bond market altogether, opting instead to pay down debt while interest rates are elevated. Cruiseline operator Carnival Corp. plans to use its available liquidity to pay down the roughly $4.5 billion in debt it has coming due later this year and next instead of coming to the high-yield market.

Carnival CFO Plans to Skip Bond Market as Rates Soar

Credit upgrades to investment grade — so-called rising stars like Nokia Oyj — has also been a reason for the shrinking high-yield market.

A smaller universe means less supply to go around to investors that are eager to put money to work in high-yield debt. Funds that invest in US corporate bonds saw additions of $5.6 billion in the week ended April 5, including the largest inflow into high-yield funds in nearly six months, according to Refinitiv Lipper data.

Drive Down Yields

For companies that continue to issue junk bonds, a smaller market could eventually reduce the cost of the debt.

“You have the same amount of capital chasing the same assets, so they will bid up the price” and drive down yields, Citigroup Inc. analyst Michael Anderson said.

To be sure, the high yield market is still much bigger then it was before more than a decade of easy money flooded markets with cheap debt. And, if the drivers of new bond issuance pick up again, the shrinking trend could slow down or even reverse.

“I think the worst of it has passed,” Citi’s Anderson said, referring to the dwindling market. “In part because mergers and acquisitions and leverage buyout pipelines will eventually reopen, bringing more supply back.”

Others see the trend as a new era that will persist. “A smaller, nimbler market was always the ‘end game’ for credit after a decade of hubris,” Bank of America Corp. strategists including Barnaby Martin and Ioannis Angelakis wrote in a recent note to clients.

Translation

（彭博社）— 從紐約到倫敦，信貸市場的一個關鍵部分正在萎縮。

根據追踪企業高收益債券的彭博指數，美國垃圾債券的數量從 2021 年 10 月的峰值下降了 11% 至 1.41 萬億美元。 一個類似的歐洲指標已經從最高水平下跌了 15%。

這標誌著多年增長的結束 - 包括 2021 年的發行量創紀錄，因為病毒大流行引發借款人尋求鎖定超低收益率。 與此同時，首席財務官面臨的再融資成本幾乎是他們在 2022 年初支付的價格的三倍- 導致一些人考慮其他融資方案 - 甚至以償還去減債。

Vanguard Group Inc. 全球應稅信貸研究主管 Colleen Cunniffe 表示： “最大的推動因素是槓桿貸款和私人信貸市場的影響，這些市場的交易量很大。”

隨著去年加息的進行，借款人選擇了槓桿貸款而不是垃圾債券來為許多交易融資，因為它們的浮動利率性質和通常較短的期限,被認為對投資者更具吸引力。 與此同時，許多收購 - 包括像 Zendesk Inc. 這樣價值數十億美元的交易 - 都是由私人信貸公司提供資金的，它們提供的利率低於波動劇烈的公開市場上的利率。

其他公司正在完全跳過債券市場，而是選擇在利率升高時償還債務。 遊輪運營商Carnival Corp.計劃利用其可用流動資金償還今年晚些時候和明年到期的約 45 億美元債務，而不是進入高收益市場。

隨著利率飆升，Carnival首席財務官計劃跳過債券市場

提升信貸至投資級別 -  Nokia Oyj 等所謂的後起之秀 - 也是高收益市場萎縮的一個原因。

較小的活動空間範圍, 意味著可供投資者急於去投資的高收益債券的供應量減少。 根據 Refinitiv Lipper 的數據，截至 4 月 5 日當週，投資於美國企業債券的基金增加了 56 億美元，其中流入高收益基金的資金是近六個月來最多的。

降低收益率

對於繼續發行垃圾債券的公司而言，較小的市場最終可能會降低債務成本。

花旗集團分析師 Michael Anderson表示， “你有相同數量的資本追逐相同的資產，因此他們會抬高價格”並壓低收益率。

可以肯定的是，高收益市場仍然比十多年來寬鬆貨幣充斥低息債務市場之前要大得多。 而且，如果驅動發新債券的因素重拾升軌，收縮趨勢可能會放緩甚至逆轉。

花旗的 Anderson 在談到市場萎縮時表示: “我認為最糟糕的時期已經過去”; “部分原因是併購和槓桿收購管道最終將重新開放，從而帶回更多供應。”

其他人則將這種趨勢視為一個將持續存在的新時代。美國銀行策略師包括 Barnaby Martin 和 Ioannis Angelakis 在內在最近給客戶的一份報告中寫道: “經過十年的過份自信，一個更小、更靈活的市場,總會是信貸的‘最終階段’” 。

              So, as interest rate hikes got underway last year, borrowers picked leveraged loans over junk bonds to finance many deals because their floating rate nature and typically shorter maturities were found more attractive to investors. Other companies are skipping the bond market altogether, opting instead to reduce debt while interest rates are increasing. We are facing a new kind of borrowing market.