Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
China's aircraft carriers play 'theatrical' role but pose
little threat yet (2/2)
Fri, May 5, 2023 at 2:04 a.m. GMT+1
By Greg Torode, Eduardo Baptista and Tim Kelly
(continue)
The carrier program reflects the ruling Communist Party's
aim of making the People's Liberation Army (PLA) a "world class"
military by 2049, part of President Xi Jinping's vision of building "a
great modern socialist country".
One indication of China's ambitions, the attaches said, will be if carriers built after the Fujian are nuclear-powered like U.S. ones, allowing global range.
A study published in December by the non-partisan U.S. Congressional Research Service noted that China would use its carriers to project power "particularly in scenarios that do not involve opposing U.S. forces" and "to impress or intimidate foreign observers".
Several countries operate aircraft carriers but the U.S. remains the most dominant, running 11 carrier battlegroups with global reach.
China, by contrast, could use its carriers primarily in the Asian theatre, working in tandem with submarines and anti-ship missiles to attempt to control its near seas.
The Shandong's appearance off Taiwan's east coast to stage mock strikes last month surprised some analysts, given the island's proximity to land-based airfields. But, in the short term at least, China's military would struggle to defend the carrier out in the western Pacific in a clash with U.S. and allied forces.
"China's objective with the deployment of the Shandong is clear, it is a symbol of its political anger" over U.S. engagement with Taiwan, said Yoji Koda, a retired admiral who commanded the Japanese fleet.
In a battle, he said, it "would be a very good target for U.S. and Japanese forces, and they would take it down at the very beginning."
A U.S. defence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to talk publicly, said while China had made progress with its carriers, it had yet to master operations in difficult conditions or how to protect the vessels.
One question was how the ships would be relevant in a conflict, the official said.
HOPES AND SHORTCOMINGS
Chinese military and government researchers appear aware of the challenges, according to a Reuters review of over 100 recent articles published in dozens of publicly available Chinese defence journals.
The official PLA Daily in October published an interview with an aircraft carrier aviation unit where the deputy chief of staff, Dai Xing, acknowledged "many shortcomings in preparing for war", and a gap between sailors' training level and combat requirements.
A September editorial published in a magazine run by a PLA weapons manufacturer, titled "Four great advantages the PLA has in attacking Taiwan", did not mention the role of Chinese carriers. Instead, it said, China's land-based ballistic missiles would be enough to overwhelm potential intervention from U.S. carriers.
Two earlier editorials in the same publication, Tank and Armoured Vehicle, noted that China's carriers would remain in their infancy for the foreseeable future and that other surface ships would be more useful in a conflict in the East China Sea.
Other articles in similar publications outline pilot recruitment and training problems, vulnerabilities to submarine attack and command issues - which some foreign analysts say is a problem for a navy that still sails with political commissars with executive authority.
When at sea, U.S. carriers fly almost constantly, routinely operating fighter, electronic-warfare and surveillance aircraft to create a protective screen around the battlegroup.
Beyond the expense and danger of such operations, one key element is mastering devolved command systems, particularly in a crisis such as a fire or crash onboard when planes are airborne and the flight deck is disabled.
"The continuous operation of its carriers sits at the very core of what makes the U.S. military absolutely preeminent," said Singapore-based defence analyst Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow with Hawaii's Pacific Forum think tank.
In the medium term, China is likely to start sending battlegroups into the Indian Ocean, where China's presence is minimal beyond routine submarine operations, the attaches and defence analysts said.
The pier at China's first major offshore military base in Djibouti was recently extended, and could now fit a carrier, the Pentagon report noted.
Translation
（繼續）
航母計劃反映了執政的共產黨到 2049 年使人民解放軍成為“世界一流”軍隊的目標，這是習近平主席建設“偉大的社會主義現代化國家”願景的一部分。
武官表示，中國雄心的一個跡像是，福建號之後建造的航母是否像美國航母一樣是核動力航母，航程可以覆蓋全球。
無黨派的美國國會研究局 12 月發表的一項研究指出，中國將利用其航母投射力量， “特別是在不涉及對抗美軍的情況下”, 以及 “去引起欽佩和尊重, 或恐嚇外國觀察家”。
一些國家亦都擁有航空母艦，但美國仍然在主導地位，它有 11 個具有全球影響力的航母戰鬥群。
相比之下，中國會主要在亞洲軍事區域使用其航母，與潛艇和反艦導彈協同作戰，試圖控制其近海。
山東艦上個月出現在台灣東海岸附近進行模擬打擊令一些分析人士感到意外,由於台灣是靠近陸基機場。 但是，至少在短期內，在與美國及其盟軍發生衝突時，中國軍隊將需要花氣力去保衛在西太平洋的航母。
曾指揮日本艦隊的退役海軍上將 Yoji Koda 表示， “中國部署山東艦的目的很明確，這是其對美國與台灣接觸的政治憤怒的象徵”。
他說，在開戦時，航母 “對美國和日本軍隊來說將是一個非常好的目標，他們會在一開始就將其擊沉。”
一位因無受權而不願透露姓名的美國國防官員表示，雖然中國在航母方面取得了進展，但尚未掌握在困難條件下的操作或如何去保護艦隻。
這位官員說，一個問題是這些船隻在衝突中的作用如何。
希望和缺點
根據路透社查閱數十本中國公開發布的國防期刊上所發表的 100 多篇近期文章後發覺，中國軍方和政府研究人員似乎意識到了這些挑戰。
解放軍官方日報在 10 月刊登了對某航空母艦航空兵部隊的採訪，其中副參謀長Dai Xing,承認“備戰工作存在諸多不足”，以及艦員訓練水平與作戰要求之間的差距。
一家解放軍武器製造商經營的雜誌在 9 月份發表了題為 “解放軍在進攻台灣方面具有四大優勢”的社論，其中沒有提及中國航母的作用。 相反，它說，中國的陸基彈道導彈足以壓倒美國航母的潛在干預。
同一出版物的兩篇早期社論《坦克和裝甲車》指出，在可預見的未來，中國的航母仍處於起步階段，其他水面艦艇在東海衝突中將更有用。
類似出版物中的其他文章概述了飛行員招募和培訓問題、潛艇攻擊的弱點和指揮問題 - 一些外國分析人士說，這對一個仍然由擁有行政權力的政治委員去運作的海軍來說是一個問題。
在海上時，美國航母幾乎不間斷地飛行，定期操作戰鬥機、電子戰偵察機，在戰鬥群周圍形成一道保護屏障。
此類操作除了費用和危險之外，一個關鍵因素是去掌握指揮系統的下放，特別是在飛機升空後,飛行甲板因發生火災或撞機等危機時不能被使用。
美國花了數十年時間完善此類系統，在盟軍在第二次世界大戰中在太平洋戰勝日本後強調了航母的重要性後，美國擴大了航母運營。
夏威夷太平洋論壇智庫兼職研究員、常駐新加坡的國防分析師 Alexander Neill 說： “其航母的持續運行是令美國軍隊絕對出眾的核心所在。”
武官和國防分析人士表示，從中期來看，中國可能會開始向印度洋派遣戰鬥群，除了例行的潛艇行動外，中國在印度洋的存在微不足道。
在遠離陸基機場安全的地方行動將考驗中國的能力，但準備工作正在進行中。
五角大樓的報告指出，中國在 Djibouti 的第一個主要離岸海上軍事基地的碼頭最近進行了擴建，現在可以容納一艘航母。
So, Chinese
military and government researchers are aware of the challenges to their
carriers. They acknowledged that they still have many shortcomings in preparing for
war, and there is a gap between sailors' training level and combat
requirements. The U.S. has spent decades in perfecting such systems, and the
continuous operation of its carriers sits at the very core of what makes the
U.S. military stand out.
沒有留言:
張貼留言