Russia's partial mobilization is unlikely to bring about a ``dramatic change in the war situation'' - War Research Institute

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ロシアの部分動員、「戦況に劇的な変化」もたらす公算小　戦争研究所

2022.09.22 Thu posted at 21:20 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 米シンクタンクの戦争研究所（ＩＳＷ）は２１日の分析で、ロシアのプーチン大統領による部分動員の発表が戦争の流れを劇的に変化させる可能性は少ないとの結論を示した。

ＩＳＷの分析では、予備役の戦闘準備が整うには数週間から数カ月かかるほか、ロシアの予備役はそもそも練度が低いと指摘。国防省が示した慎重な配備の段階をもとに判断すると、ロシア兵が突然押し寄せて戦況を劇的に変化させる事態は考えにくいと述べた。

プーチン氏の命令は兵役を終えた「訓練済み」の予備役の一部を動員する内容だが、数カ月は大した戦力にならないだろうと指摘。死傷者の穴を埋めて現在の兵力を来年も維持するには十分かもしれないが、現時点ではそれすら定かではないとの見方を示した。

さらに「ロシアの兵役期間はわずか１年で、徴集兵が兵士としての技能を学ぶ時間はそもそもほとんどない。この最初の期間の後には追加訓練がなく、時間が経つにつれ身に着けたスキルの劣化が加速する」としている。

Translation

  (CNN) Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of partial mobilization would unlikely dramatically change the course of the war, an analysis by an American think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on the 21st.

 An ISW ​​analysis said it would take weeks or months for reserves to become combat-ready, and that Russia's reserves wre generally poorly trained. Judging by the level of cautious deployment indicated by the defense ministry, it said it was unlikely that a sudden surge of Russian troops would dramatically change the war situation.

 In the content of Mr. Putin's order, it mobilized some of the "trained" reservists who had completed military service, the analysis pointed out that they wouldn't become a significant force in a few months. It said that they might be enough to fill the casualty gap and maintain current strength next year, but even that would be uncertain at this point.

 Furthermore, it supposed that the "Russian military service lasts only one year, and conscripts in the first place have little time to learn the skills of a soldier. There is no additional training after this initial period, and the deterioration of learned skills accelerates over time.”

              So, according to the Institute for the Study of War, the new soldier will not help much to improve the Russian situation in the battlefield. We can observe that in the past weeks, many Russian are trying to leave the country to avoid the military service.