Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
EXPLAINER: Pakistan fatal flooding has hallmarks of warming
ASSOCIATED PRESS
SETH BORENSTEIN and SIBI ARASU
Mon, August 29, 2022 at 3:33 PM
The familiar ingredients of a warming world were in place:
searing temperatures, hotter air holding more moisture, extreme weather getting
wilder, melting glaciers, people living in harm’s way, and poverty. They
combined in vulnerable Pakistan to create unrelenting rain and deadly flooding.
The flooding has all the hallmarks of a catastrophe juiced by climate change, but it is too early to formally assign blame to global warming, several scientists tell The Associated Press. It occurred in a country that did little to cause the warming, but keeps getting hit, just like the relentless rain.
“This year Pakistan has received the highest rainfall in at least three decades. So far this year the rain is running at more than 780% above average levels,” said Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute and a member of Pakistan’s Climate Change Council. “Extreme weather patterns are turning more frequent in the region and Pakistan is not a exception.”
Climate Minister Sherry Rehman said “it’s been a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.”
Pakistan “is considered the eighth most vulnerable country to climate change,” said Moshin Hafeez, a Lahore-based climate scientist at the International Water Management Institute. Its rain, heat and melting glaciers are all climate change factors scientists warned repeatedly about.
While scientists point out these classic climate change fingerprints, they have not yet finished intricate calculations that compare what happened in Pakistan to what would happen in a world without warming. That study, expected in a few weeks, will formally determine how much climate change is a factor, if at all.
The “recent flood in Pakistan is actually an outcome of the climate catastrophe ... that was looming very large,” said Anjal Prakash, a research director at India’s Bharti Institute of Public Policy. “The kind of incessant rainfall that has happened ... has been unprecedented."
Pakistan is used to monsoons and downpours, but “we do expect them spread out, usually over three months or two months,” said the country's climate minister Rehman.
There are usually breaks, she said, and not as much rain -- 37.5 centimeters (14.8 inches) falls in one day, nearly three times higher than the national average for the past three decades. “Neither is it so prolonged. ... It’s been eight weeks and we are told we might see another downpour in September.”
“Clearly, it’s being juiced by climate change,” said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts.
There’s been a 400% increase in average rainfall in areas like Baluchistan and Sindh, which led to the extreme flooding, Hafeez said. At least 20 dams have been breached.
The heat has been as relentless as the rain. In May, Pakistan consistently saw temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit). Scorching temperatures higher than 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) were recorded in places like Jacobabad and Dadu.
Warmer air holds more moisture -- about 7% more per degree Celsius (4% per degree Fahrenheit) — and that eventually comes down, in this case in torrents.
Across the world “intense rain storms are getting more intense,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer. And he said mountains, like those in Pakistan, help wring extra moisture out as the clouds pass.
Instead of just swollen rivers flooding from extra rain, Pakistan is hit with another source of flash flooding: The extreme heat accelerates the long-term glacier melting then water speeds down from the Himalayas to Pakistan in a dangerous phenomena called glacial lake outburst floods.
“We have the largest number of glaciers outside the polar region, and this affects us,” climate minister Rehman said. “Instead of keeping their majesty and preserving them for posterity and nature. We are seeing them melt.”
Not all of the problem is climate change.
Pakistan saw similar flooding and devastation in 2010 that killed nearly 2,000 people. But the government didn’t implement plans to prevent future flooding by preventing construction and homes in flood prone areas and river beds, said Suleri of the country's Climate Change Council.
The disaster is hitting a poor country that has contributed relatively little to the world's climate problem, scientists and officials said. Since 1959, Pakistan has emitted about 0.4% of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, compared to 21.5% by the United States and 16.4% by China.
“Those countries that have developed or gotten rich on the back of fossil fuels, which are the problem really,” Rehman said. “They’re going to have to make a critical decision that the world is coming to a tipping point. We certainly have already reached that point because of our geographical location.”
Translation
全球變暖的熟悉因素已經到位：灼熱的溫度、更熱的空氣保持更多的水分、極端天氣變得更加狂野、冰川融化、人們生活在危險以及貧困中。它們在脆弱的巴基斯坦聯合起來，製造了無情的降雨和致命的洪水。
幾位科學家告訴美聯社，洪水俱有由氣候變化引發的災難的所有特徵，但現在正式將責任歸咎於全球變暖還為時過早。它發生在一個幾乎對氣候變暖沒有造出任何影響的國家，但卻不斷受到打擊，就像無情雨一樣。
可持續發展政策研究所執行主任兼巴基斯坦氣候變化委員會成員 Abid Qaiyum Suleri 說: “今年巴基斯坦的降雨量是至少三十年來最高的。今年到目前為止，降雨量比平均水平高出
780% 以上”; “該地區的極端天氣模式變得更加頻繁，巴基斯坦也不例外。”
氣候部長Sherry Rehman說： “這是一場規模空前的災難。”
國際水管理研究所駐拉合爾的氣候科學家 Moshin Hafeez 說，巴基斯坦 “被認為是第八大最易受氣候變化影響的國家” 。它的雨水、高溫和融化的冰川都是科學家反覆警告的氣候變化因素。
雖然科學家們指出了這些經典的氣候變化指紋，但他們還沒有完成複雜的計算，將巴基斯坦發生的事情與一個沒有變暖的世界進行比較。這項研究預計將在幾週內完成, 它將正式確定氣候變化在多大程度上是一個因素，如果有這個因素的話。
印度巴蒂公共政策研究所的研究主任 Anjal Prakash說： “巴基斯坦最近發生的洪水實際上是氣候災難的結果……這已經迫在眉睫”; “這種持續不斷的降雨……是史無前例的。”
該國氣候部長Rehman說巴基斯坦已經習慣了季風和傾盆大雨，但 “我們確實預計它們會分攤開來，通常會持續三個月或兩個月” 。
她說，通常會有分隔開，但不會是降雨量那么多 - 一天的降雨量達 37.5 厘米（14.8 英寸），幾乎是過去 30 年全國平均水平的三倍。 “也沒有那麼長。 ......已經八週了，我們被告知可能會在 9 月看到另一場傾盆大雨。”
馬薩諸塞州伍德威爾氣候研究中心的氣候科學家詹Jennifer Francis說： “很明顯，氣候變化正在影響這種情況。”
Hafeez說，俾路支省和信德省等地區的平均降雨量增加了 400%，這導致了極端洪水。至少有20座水壩被破壞。
酷熱如大雨般無情。 5 月，巴基斯坦的氣溫持續高於 45 攝氏度（113 華氏度）。雅各巴巴德和大都等地記錄了高於 50 攝氏度（122 華氏度）的高溫。
溫暖的空氣擁有更多的水分 - 每攝氏度增加約 7%（每華氏度 4%）- 並且最終會下降，在這種情況下是猛烈的暴雨。
普林斯頓大學氣候科學家 Michael Oppenheimer說，全世界 “強烈的暴雨正變得越來越強烈” 。他說山脈，就像巴基斯坦的那些，在雲層經過時有助於擠出額外的水分。
巴基斯坦不僅遭受了額外降雨造成的洪水氾濫，還遭受了另一種山洪暴發的襲擊：極端高溫加速了冰川的長期融化，然後水從喜馬拉雅山流向巴基斯坦，形成了一種危險的現象，稱為冰川湖潰決洪水。
氣候部長Rehman說： “我們在南北两極地區以外擁有最多的冰川，這影響到我們”; “我們沒有保持它的威嚴,並為我們的後代和大自然去保護它。我們正在看到它融化。”
並非所有問題都是因為氣候變化。
2010 年，巴基斯坦發生了類似的洪水和破壞，造成近 2,000 人死亡。但該國氣候變化委員會的Suleri說，政府沒有實施計劃，去執行阻止位於洪水易發地區和河床的建築工程及房屋,以防止未來的洪水。
科學家和官員說，這場災難正在襲擊一個相對較小令致有世界氣候問題的貧窮國家。自 1959 年以來，巴基斯坦排放了約 0.4% 的吸熱二氧化碳，而美國為 21.5%，中國為 16.4%。
Rehman 說: “那些依靠化石燃料發展或致富的國家，確實是個問題”; “他們將不得不做出一個關鍵決定，即世界即將到達一個臨界點。由於我們的地理位置，我們肯定已經達到了這一轉接點。”
So, this year Pakistan has
received the highest rainfall in at least three decades. So far this year the
rain is recorded at more than 780% above average levels. Extreme weather
patterns are turning more frequent in the region around Pakistan. This could be
the impact of global warming.
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