人類為什麼會在 80 歲左右死亡的謎團可能最終會被解開

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Mystery of why humans die around 80 may finally be solved

Sarah Knapton

The Telegraph

Wed, April 13, 2022, 10:35 AM

The mystery of why humans die at around 80, while other mammals live far shorter or longer lives, may finally have been solved by scientists.

Humans and animals die after amassing a similar number of genetic mutations, researchers have found, suggesting the speed of DNA errors is critical in determining the lifespan of a species.

There are huge variations in the lifespan of mammals in the animal kingdom, from South Asian rats, which live for just six months, to bowhead whales, which can survive for 200 years.

Previously, experts have suggested that size is the key to longevity, with smaller animals burning up energy more quickly, requiring a faster cell turnover, which causes a speedier decline.

But a new study from the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge suggests the speed of genetic damage could be the key to survival, with long-living animals successfully slowing down their rate of DNA mutations regardless of their size.

It helps explain how a five-inch long naked mole rat can live for 25 years, about the same as a far larger giraffe, which typically lives for 24.

When scientists checked their mutation rates, they were surprisingly similar. Naked mole rats suffer 93 mutations a year and giraffes 99.

In contrast, mice suffer 796 mutations a year and only live for 3.7 years. The average human lifespan in the study was 83.6 years, but the mutation rate was far lower at around 47.

Genetic changes, known as somatic mutations, occur in all cells and are largely harmless, but some can start a cell on the path to cancer or impair normal functioning.

Dr Alex Cagan, the first author of the study, said: “To find a similar pattern of genetic changes in animals as different from one another as a mouse and a tiger was surprising.

“But the most exciting aspect of the study has to be finding that lifespan is inversely proportional to the somatic mutation rate. This suggests that somatic mutations may play a role in ageing.”

The team analyzed genetic errors in the stem cells from the intestines of 16 species of mammal and found that the longer the lifespan of a species, the slower the rate at which mutations occur.

The average number of mutations at the end of lifespan across species was around 3200, suggesting there is a critical mass of errors after which a body is unable to function correctly.

 ‘Ageing is a complex process’

Although the figure differed about threefold across species the variation was far less than the variation in body size, which varied up to 40,000 fold.

The researchers believe the study opens the door to understanding the ageing process, and the inevitability and timing of death.

Dr Inigo Martincorena, the senior author of the study, said: “Ageing is a complex process, the result of multiple forms of molecular damage in our cells and tissues.

“Somatic mutations have been speculated to contribute to ageing since the 1950s, but studying them has remained difficult.

“With the recent advances in DNA sequencing technologies, we can finally investigate the roles that somatic mutations play in ageing and in multiple diseases.”

The research was published in the journal Nature.

Translation

為什麼人類會在 80 歲左右死亡，而其他哺乳動物的壽命要短得多或長得多，這一謎團可能最終被科學家們解開了。

研究人員發現，人類和動物在積累了相似數量的基因突變後死亡，這表明DNA的錯誤速度對於決定一個物種的壽命至關重要。

動物王國中哺乳動物的壽命存在巨大差異，從僅能存活 6 個月的南亞老鼠到可以存活 200 年的弓頭鯨。

此前，專家曾提出，體型是長壽的關鍵，體型較小的動物消耗能量更快，需要更快的細胞更新，從而導致更快的衰退。

但在劍橋的 Wellcome Sanger 研究所的一項新研究表明，基因損傷的速度可能是生存的關鍵，長壽動物無論它們的大小如何, 成功地減慢了 DNA 突變的速度。

這有助於解釋一隻 5 英寸長的裸鼴鼠如何能活 25 年，與通常能活 24 年的大得多的長頸鹿大致相同。

當科學家們檢查它們的突變率時，發現它們驚人地相似。裸鼴鼠每年發生 93 次突變，而長頸鹿則有 99 次。

相比之下，老鼠一年有796個突變，只能活3.7年，在研究中人類的平均壽命是83.6歲，但突變率遠低, 一年有47個左右。

被稱為體細胞突變的遺傳變化會發生在所有細胞中，並且在很大程度上是無害的，但有些可能會使細胞走上癌症之路, 或損害正常功能。

該研究的第一作者Alex Cagan博士說： “在老鼠和老虎那麽不同動物之間發現相似的基因變化模式是令人驚訝。

“但這項研究最令人興奮的方面是發現壽命與體細胞突變率成反比。這表明體細胞突變可能在衰老中起作用。”

該團隊分析了 16 種哺乳動物腸道幹細胞中的遺傳錯誤，發現一個物種的壽命越長，突變發生的速度就越慢。

跨物種壽命結束時的平均突變數量約為 3,200，這表明錯誤達臨界量之後, 身體就無法正常運作。

“老齡化是一個複雜的過程”

儘管這個數字在不同物種之間存在大約三倍的差異，但差異遠小於在體型大小的差異，後者的差異高達 40,000 倍。

研究人員認為，這項研究為了解衰老過程以及死亡的必然性和時機打開了大門。

該研究的資深作者 Inigo Martincorena 博士說： “衰老是一個複雜的過程，是我們細胞和組織中多種形式的分子損傷的結果。

“自 1950 年代以來，人們推測體細胞突變會導致衰老，但研究它們仍然很困難。

“隨著 DNA 測序技術的最新進展，我們終於可以研究體細胞突變在衰老和多種疾病中的作用。”

該研究發表在《自然》雜誌上。

So, according this this research, the average number of mutations at the end of lifespan across species was around 3,200, suggesting there is a critical mass of errors caused by genetic mutations, after which a body is unable to function correctly. This is an interesting theory.

3rd vaccination: "Antibody value is halved yet still effective after 3 months"

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

ワクチン3回目接種 ”抗体の値 3か月後に半減も一定の有効性”

2022年4月13日 21時16分

新型コロナワクチンの3回目の接種によって、感染を防ぐ抗体の値が3か月でどう変化するか、国の研究班が初めて分析結果を公表しました。抗体の値は接種直前に比べて平均で50倍以上に上昇したあと、3か月後にかけてほぼ半減したものの「一定の有効性は保たれている」としています。

厚生労働省の研究班は、3回目のワクチン接種を受けた医療従事者のうち、感染による抗体がなかった人について、変異する前の「従来株」に対する抗体の値が、3か月間でどう変化したか初めて分析しました。

このうち3回ともファイザーのワクチンを接種した440人では

▽1か月後の抗体の値は接種の直前に比べて平均で52.1倍

▽3か月後は27.5倍だったとしています。

また、2回目までファイザーで3回目にモデルナを接種した92人では

▽1か月後の抗体の値が接種の直前に比べて平均で70.3倍

▽3か月後は36倍だったとしています。

研究班の代表で、順天堂大学医学部の伊藤澄信特任教授は「3か月後にかけて抗体の値はほぼ半減したものの、水準としては高く一定の有効性は保たれている。オミクロン株に対する効果は明確に言えないが、有効性が急激に低下することは考えにくいのではないか」としています。

Translation

For the first time, a national research group published the results of an analysis on how the levels of antibodies that prevent infection would change in three months after the third inoculation of the new corona vaccine. The antibody level increased more than 50 times on average compared to just before inoculation, and then almost halved over 3 months, but "a certain level of efficacy is maintained".

According to a research group of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, among medical workers who received the third vaccination and who did not get the antibody due to infection, an analysis was done for the first time to see how the antibody value against the "conventional strain" before the mutation would change in 3 months.

Of these, 440 people who were vaccinated with Pfizer three times

▽ The antibody level after 1 month was 52.1 times on average compared to immediately before inoculation.

▽ It was  was 27.5 times after 3 months.

In addition, 92 people who inoculated Moderna for the third time, and with Pfizer up to the second time

▽ The antibody value after 1 month was 70.3 times on average compared to just before inoculation.

▽ It was 36 times after 3 months.

Suminobu Ito (伊藤澄信), a specially appointed professor at Juntendo University School of Medicine who was the representative of this research group said, "Although the antibody level has almost halved over three months, the level is high and a certain level of efficacy is maintained. While the effect on Omicron strains can't be said for sure, but it seems unlikely that the effectiveness drops sharply. "

              So, three months after the third inoculation of the new corona, the antibody level will almost drop by half.

拜登的氫樞紐計劃在美國各州引發 80 億美元的競爭

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Biden’s Hydrogen Hub Plan Sparks $8 Billion Race Among U.S. States

David R Baker

Fri, April 8, 2022, 6:00 AM

(Bloomberg) -- A hydrogen economy that runs factories and power plants on the clean-burning fuel may be years down the road, but that hasn’t stopped U.S. states from jockeying for a share of the $8 billion in federal funds earmarked for so-called hydrogen hubs.

President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure plan, which became law in November, includes funding to build at least four hydrogen hubs—places where the gas can be produced and used in a self-reinforcing cycle. Two must be in regions with abundant natural gas reserves, a provision that helped secure backing from U.S. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. The hubs, intended to test different ways to produce and use the gas, are a key piece of Biden’s efforts to wean industry off fossil fuels and fight climate change.

Hydrogen is emerging as one of the cleanest options to power industries that typically rely on fossil fuels, since burning the gas can generate electricity without spewing climate-warming carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Companies worldwide are exploring hydrogen as a fuel for long-haul trucks, factories, trains, ships and even airplanes, though many efforts are in their early stages. Establishing hydrogen hubs could provide the jolt needed for the gas to gain ground in the country.

“We’re pretty excited about the potential of a lot of industries to switch over to hydrogen: steel, trucking, shipping,” said Bryan Fisher, a managing director at RMI, a nonprofit research group focused on the clean energy transition. “It makes all the sense in the world, if we’re trying to start a hydrogen economy, to be able to match production and demand in a specific region.”

States are announcing their interest in the money—sometimes working together, sometimes on their own. They haven’t filed formal applications yet, much less worked out the details of what they’d do with the money, and the pool of contenders is likely to grow. There are already some potential heavy hitters in what could become a crowded field. And the carve-out for natural gas could pit fossil-fuel states—usually allies on federal energy issues—against one another as they vie for funding.

All Together Now

Many of the states in the race have decided to join efforts in regional partnerships rather than go it alone. Their approaches tend to be based on available resources.

New York, for example, formed an alliance with Massachusetts, New Jersey and Connecticut last month. Their announcement focused squarely on “green” hydrogen–hydrogen stripped from water using renewable energy. The process emits no greenhouse gases, either when the fuel is produced or used. Hydrogen can also be stripped from natural gas, but since none of the four states is a big gas producer their plan to use solar power and offshore wind to supply energy for a hub makes sense. New York is also home to one of the main companies specializing in green hydrogen–Plug Power Inc., based near Albany–which is already building a hydrogen production plant between Rochester and Buffalo.

Another partnership that includes Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma would use existing infrastructure to form the basis of its hub. Hydrogen is already produced in the region using natural gas. The hydrogen output is used there in some manufacturing processes, such as lowering sulfur content of fuels from refineries. To qualify for the federal money, the carbon dioxide released by stripping hydrogen from gas will need to be captured and stored, most likely underground. The three states want to use the hydrogen to decarbonize heavy industry and transportation.

A third alliance involving Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming also seems to be taking an “all-of-the-above” approach. The sprawling combination of states includes plenty of natural gas and renewables, particularly wind power, and their agreement to seek funding highlights both.

Going It Alone, For Now

Some states are gearing up to compete on their own, at least for the moment. One example is West Virginia, whose Democratic Senator Joe Manchin was a driving force behind the idea of having some of the hubs based in gas-producing regions. Manchin and his Republican counterpart, Senator Shelley Moore Capito, helped establish a working group for the state to pursue the funding. Kentucky set up a working group, too.

There’s always the chance they’ll join a partnership. In February, a coalition of businesses that includes Equinor ASA, Mitsubishi Power, Marathon Petroleum Corp. and United States Steel Corp. said they would help work on a hub that would knit together Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Here, too, the focus would be on hydrogen produced from the region’s ample supply of natural gas, with the fuel used in heavy industry.

Wild Cards

Oil and gas powerhouse Texas seems to have all the key ingredients needed for a hydrogen hub. Its petrochemical industry along the Gulf coast already produces and uses hydrogen, and the state’s natural gas fields contain the raw material for more. A consortium of oil companies led by Exxon Mobil Corp. is already exploring the potential for a system to capture and store carbon dioxide in the region. Other businesses have reported plans for a major green hydrogen project at Corpus Christi. And the non-profit civic group Center for Houston’s Future has proposed a hub around that city. So far, however, Texas hasn’t declared its intention to compete for the federal money.

Neither has California. The utility Southern California Gas Co. in February proposed building a green hydrogen system called the Angeles Link that could serve as the basis of a hub in the Los Angeles area, with the fuel taking the place of natural gas in up to four power plants. SoCalGas is also part HyDeal LA, an effort to drive down the cost of green hydrogen that also includes the city’s municipal utility. Two Los Angeles city council members proposed applying for the federal money. But so far, the state hasn’t.

Translation

（彭博社）- 使用清潔燃料運行工廠和發電廠的氫經濟可能還需要數年時間，但這並沒有阻止美國各州爭相在 80 億美元用於稱為氫樞紐的聯邦基金中分得一杯羹。

拜登總統的兩黨基礎設施計劃於 11 月成為法律，其中包括資助建造至少四個氫氣樞紐 - 在這些地方可以生產和使用氫氣，用自我強化循環運作。其中兩個必須位於天然氣儲量豐富的地區，這一條款有助於獲得美國西弗吉尼亞州參議員Joe Manchin的支持。這些中心旨在測試生產和使用天然氣的不同方式，是拜登努力地使工業擺脫化石燃料和應對氣候變化的關鍵部分。

氫氣正在成為通常依賴化石燃料的電能行業最清潔的選擇之一，因為燃燒氫氣可以發電，而不會向大氣中排放導致氣候變暖的二氧化碳。世界各地的公司都在探索氫作為長途卡車、工廠、火車、輪船甚至飛機的燃料，儘管許多努力還處於早期階段。建立氫氣樞紐可以為天然氣在該國獲得發展提供必要的啓動衝擊力。

專注於清潔能源轉型的非營利研究組織 RMI 的董事總經理 Bryan Fisher 說: “我們對許多行業轉向氫氣的潛力感到非常興奮：鋼鐵、卡車運輸、航運”; “如果我們試圖啟動氫經濟，以便能夠匹配特定地區的生產和需求，在世界上是很有意義的。”

各州正在宣布他們對這筆錢的興趣 - 有些是一起合作，有些是自己单獨進行。他們還沒有提交正式申請，更不用說確定他們將如何使用這筆錢的細節，而且競爭者的數量可能會增加。現已經有一些潛在的重量級人物, 令這領域可能變得擁擠。對天然氣的樞紐分拆可能會使化石燃料州份 - 通常是聯邦能源問題上的盟友 - 在爭奪資金時相互競爭。

現在都走在一起了

競爭中的許多州已決定加入區域夥伴關係，而不是單獨行動。他們的方法往往基於已擁有可用資源。

例如，紐約上個月與馬薩諸塞州、新澤西州和康涅狄格州結成聯盟。他們的聲明直接關注“綠色”氫 - 使用可再生能源從水中提取的氫。該過程在生產或使用燃料時不會排放溫室氣體。氫氣也可以從天然氣中提取，但由於這四個州都不是大型天然氣生產州，因此他們計劃利用太陽能和海上風能為樞紐提供能源是有道理的。紐約也是專注於綠色氫氣的主要公司之一 - 位於奧爾巴尼附近的 Plug Power Inc. 的所在地 - 該公司已經在 Rochester和 Buffalo 之間建造了一座氫氣生產廠。

另一個包括阿肯色州、路易斯安那州和俄克拉荷馬州在內的合作夥伴關係將利用現有基礎設施作為其樞紐的基礎。該地區已經使用天然氣生產氫氣。那裡輸出的氫氣被使用於一些製造過程，例如降低煉油廠燃料的硫含量。為了獲得聯邦資金的資格，從氣體中提取氫氣所釋放的二氧化碳需要被捕獲和儲存，很可能是藏在地下。這三個州希望使用氫來使重工業和交通運輸脫碳。

第三個聯盟涉及科羅拉多州、新墨西哥州、猶他州和懷俄明州, 似乎也採取了“以上所有”的方法。各州的龐大組合包括大量的天然氣和可再生能源，尤其是風能，它們尋求資金的協議突出了兩者。

暫時单獨去進行

至少在目前，一些州正準備獨自競爭。一個例子是西弗吉尼亞州，其民主黨參議員Joe Manchin 是推動將一些中心設在產氣區的想法的推動力。Manchin和他的共和黨參議員Shelley Moore Capito幫助該州建立了一個工作組來尋求資金。肯塔基州也成立了一個工作組。

大衆總是有機會加入合作夥伴關係。 2 月，包括 Equinor ASA、三菱電力、馬拉松石油公司和美國鋼鐵公司在內的企業聯盟表示，他們將幫助建立一個將俄亥俄州、賓夕法尼亞州和西弗吉尼亞州聯繫在一起的樞紐。在這裡，重點也將放在該地區有充足的天然氣用於供應生產氫氣，所生產氫燃料用於重工業。

百搭牌

擁有大量石油和天然氣德克薩斯州似乎擁有氫樞紐所需的所有關鍵要素。它在墨西哥灣沿岸的石化工業已經生產和使用氫氣，該州的天然氣田含有更多的原材料。由埃克森美孚公司牽頭的一個石油公司財團已經在探索在該地區建立一種捕獲和儲存二氧化碳的系統的潛力。其他企業已經報告了在Corpus Christi 進行大型綠色氫項目的計劃。非營利性民間團體 Center for Houston’s Future已提議在該城市周圍建立一個樞紐。然而，到目前為止，德克薩斯州還沒有宣布打算爭取聯邦資金。

加利福尼亞也沒有打算爭取聯邦資金。公用事業公司南加州天然氣公司在 2 月提議建立一個名為“洛杉磯連線”的綠色氫氣系統，該系統可以作為洛杉磯地區樞紐的基礎，在多達四個發電廠中使用氫燃料代替天然氣。 SoCalGas 也是 HyDeal LA 的一部分，旨在降低綠色氫的成本，其中還包括該市的市政公用事業。兩名洛杉磯市議會成員提議申請聯邦資金。但到目前為止，該州還沒有行動。

So, the US President’s infrastructure plan includes funding to build at least four hydrogen hubs places where the gas can be produced and used in a self-reinforcing cycle. These hubs, intended to test different ways to produce and use the gas, are a key piece of US’s efforts to cut its dependence on fossil fuels and to fight climate change. Probably these hubs will become a profitable new industry eventually.

面對擔憂中國, 日本與菲律賓加強安全關係

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Japan, Philippines to step up security ties amid China worry

MARI YAMAGUCHI

Thu, April 7, 2022, 8:42 AM

TOKYO (AP) — The defense ministers of Japan and the Philippines agreed Thursday to bolster security cooperation and expand joint drills between their forces as they shared concerns about China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region.

Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi and his Philippine counterpart, Delfin Lorenzana, also shared concern about Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact in the Indo-Pacific, and noted that any attempts to change the status quo by force is unacceptable, Japan's Defense Ministry said in a statement that avoided identifying China by name.

Japan has significantly expanded joint drills with the United States and other partners, including Australia, India, France, Britain and Germany, that share its concerns about China’s assertion of its territorial claims in the region, which has some of the world’s busiest sea lanes.

Japan is especially concerned about Chinese military and coast guard activity in the East China Sea near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands, which China also claims and calls Diaoyu.

On Thursday, Japan's Defense Ministry said it spotted a Chinese Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft flying over the Sakishima islands, although it did not violate Japanese airspace.

Kishi and Lorenzana also agreed to increase cooperation in defense equipment and technology transfer between the two countries. Tokyo and Manila agreed in 2020 on the Japanese export of air radar systems to the Philippine military.

For Japan, the Philippines is geopolitically important as China increases its influence in the region.

China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei have been locked in an increasingly tense territorial standoff in the busy waterway for decades.

The defense ministers will be joined by foreign ministers from each country on Saturday for the first “two plus two” security talks between the two countries.

Translation

東京（美聯社）- 日本和菲律賓國防部長周四同意加強安全合作並擴大雙方部隊之間的聯合演習，因為他們對中國在該地區日益強硬的軍事行動表示擔憂。

日本防衛大臣岸信夫和菲律賓防長 Delfin Lorenzana 也對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭及其對印太地區的影響表示擔憂，日本防衛大臣在一份避免點名中國的聲明指出, 任何以武力改變現狀的企圖都是不可接受的。

日本大幅擴大了與美國和包括澳大利亞、印度、法國、英國和德國在內的其他夥伴的聯合演習，這些夥伴與中國在該地區主張其領土主張一樣感到擔憂，該地區擁有世界上最繁忙的一些海上航道。

日本特別關注中國在日本控制的尖閣諸島附近東海的軍事和海岸警衛隊活動，中國也聲稱擁有尖閣諸島並稱它為釣魚島。

週四，日本防衛省表示，它發現了一架中國 Y-9 電子戰飛機飛越先島群島群島，儘管它沒有侵犯日本領空。

岸信夫和Lorenzana還同意加强两國在國防裝備和技術轉讓方面的合作。東京和馬尼拉於 2020 年同意日本向菲律賓軍方出口空中雷達系統。

對日本而言，隨著中國在該地區影響力的增強，菲律賓在地緣政治上具有重要意義。

幾十年來，中國、菲律賓、越南、台灣、馬來西亞和文萊,在對繁忙的航道涉及的領土擁有,陷入了日益緊張對峙。

週六，兩國國防部長將與該國外交部長一起參加兩國之間的首次“二加二”安全會談。

So,  Japan and the Philippines will bolster security cooperation and expand joint military drills as they share concerns about China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region.

如果中國幫助俄羅斯，會被美國製裁的威脅激起北京對外匯資產的擔憂

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

US sanctions threat if China aids Russia stirs fear in Beijing about forex assets

Thu, April 7, 2022, 2:30 AM

Yahoo finance

Washington's financial sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine have raised concern in China over its large exposure to US government bonds, although experts say there is no real alternative for the country to invest its foreign exchange reserves.

In recent weeks, former central bank adviser Yu Yongding and former vice-chairman of the Bank of China, Wang Yongli, have issued warnings about the effect that Western sanctions could have on China's investment in foreign securities, amid US threats of "consequences" if Beijing helps Russia evade sanctions.

"If China also encounters similar sanctions against Russia, its overseas assets may even face the danger of turning to zero," said Yu, a prominent Chinese economist, in a blog post last week.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 triggered a barrage of sanctions from the US and its allies that have included removing some Russian banks from the international financial messaging system Swift, which is used to transfer money across borders.

The foreign currency reserves of Russia's central bank have also been frozen, causing the rouble to plunge more than 20 per cent initially, though the currency has since stabilised after Russia imposed harsh capital controls to prevent outflows.

A country like China that runs a trade surplus has to invest in foreign assets and there are few other choices but US bonds, said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University and a veteran China observer.

"By implementing the sanctions, Washington has shown that control over the global payment system gives it an enormous amount of power," he said. "Countries like China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela who are very concerned with the exercise of that power now have a greater incentive to hold something other than the dollar. But that's all it is ... what else can they hold?"

China, which is known as the workshop for the world, has been accumulating foreign income from its exports since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Last year, China's trade surplus with the rest of the world rose 29 per cent from a year earlier to US$676.43 billion - the highest since records began in 1950.

While China does not disclose where it parks its foreign trade revenue, a significant portion has been invested in US government bonds.

In January this year, China held US$1.06 trillion worth of US treasuries, making it the second largest holder behind Japan, according to the US Treasury.

Based on US Treasury data, US government bonds account for about a third of the value of China's overall foreign exchange reserves, which stood at US$3.22 trillion in January, according to exchange regulator State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

"China's national foreign exchange reserves are mainly the currencies of developed countries such as the US dollar and the euro, and are also mainly stored in developed countries such as the United States and Europe. This outcome is not optional," Wang said in an op-ed published in Caixin magazine late last month.

 "This also means that once the relationship with the United States and Europe breaks down, the security of [China's] foreign exchange reserves will be greatly threatened," Wang said.

China has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and said it would continue to maintain trade and economic cooperation with both countries.

A diplomatic source in Beijing said that China is concerned over the US threat of "consequences", as well as what type of economic engagement with Russia might trigger sanctions.

"The red line is arms sales. The US is playing with ambiguity," said the source. "They believe that Europe may not be on board to sanction [China]."

China has been reducing its exposure to US government bonds since 2015, although it has not been able to find a similar replacement. Investing in euro-denominated securities and Japanese government bonds are also not good alternatives , Pettis said.

"Europe needs to acquire assets abroad and it would not welcome the consequence of too much money shifting out of the dollar into euros because that would force up the value of the euro and make it difficult for the Europeans to run current account surpluses, which they have to run, like China, because domestic demand is too weak," he said.

"Japan also relies on a current account surplus to absorb domestic demand and we have seen it before, if you buy too much yen, the Japanese get angry, so you can't really do that."

While developing countries would welcome China's investment, such exposure is deemed too risky, Pettis said, and the same also applies to gold and other commodities, as reserve assets should be in relatively stable investments during turbulent times.

Both Yu and Wang said Beijing needs to consider countermeasures if the US and Europe impose sanctions on Chinese investment overseas.

"Overseas assets and liabilities should be balanced, especially not to hold too many US dollar assets ... to have the ability to come up with equal countermeasures if needed," Yu said.

Wang said that China should continue its economic and financial opening to the world, encouraging foreign investors to hold more Chinese assets, to form a "stronger integration of interests". He said the US and Europe cannot "afford" to impose sanctions on China similar to those on Russia or North Korea.

"It is difficult for the United States to completely decouple from China, and freezing or even confiscating China's reserve assets can only be an extremely rare crazy outcome," Wang said.

(This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post)

Translation

華盛頓對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的金融制裁,引發了中國對其大量持有美國政府債券的擔憂，儘管專家表示中國沒有真正的替代方案來投資其外匯儲備。

最近幾週，在美國威脅如果北京幫助俄羅斯逃避制裁會有“後果”的情況下，前央行顧問Yu Yongding和中國銀行前副行長Wang Yongli就西方制裁可能對中國投資外國證券產生的影響發出警告。

中國著名經濟學家於上週在一篇博文中表示, “如果中國也遭遇對俄羅斯的類似制裁，其海外資產甚至可能面臨歸零的危險” 。

俄羅斯於 2 月 24 日入侵烏克蘭引發了美國及其盟友的一連串制裁，其中包括將一些俄羅斯銀行, 從用於跨境轉移資金的國際金融信息系統 Swift 中刪除。

俄羅斯央行的外匯儲備也被凍結，導致盧布最初暴跌超過 20%，不過在俄羅斯實施嚴厲的資本管制以防止資金外流後, 盧布已經企穩。

北京大學金融學教授、資深中國觀察家Michael Pettis表示，像中國這樣的貿易順差國家必須投資於外國資產，除了美國債券之外別無選擇。

他說: “通過實施制裁，華盛頓已經表明，對全球支付系統的控制賦予了它巨大的權力”; “像中國、伊朗、俄羅斯和委內瑞拉這樣非常關心這種權力被行使的國家, 現在更有動力去持有美元以外的東西。但僅止於此而已……他們還能持有什麼？”

素有世界工廠之稱的中國，自2001年加入世貿組織以來，出口創匯不斷積累。

去年，中國與世界其他地區的貿易順差同比增長 29%，達到 6,764.3 億美元，創下 1950 年有記錄以來的最高水平。

雖然中國沒有透露其對外貿易收入的存放地點，但很大一部分投資於美國政府債券。

根據美國財政部的數據，今年 1 月，中國持有價值 1.06 萬億美元的美國國債，成為僅次於日本的第二大持有國。

根據外匯監管機構的國家外匯管理局，美國財政部的數據顯示，美國政府債券約佔中國整體外匯儲備價值的三分之一，1 月份為 3.22 萬億美元。

Wang在上個月底在財新雜誌上發表的一篇專欄文章中說: “中國的國家外匯儲備主要是美元、歐元等發達國家的貨幣，也主要存放在美國、歐洲等發達國家，這是一個無選擇的結果。”

Wang 說: “這也意味著，一旦與美國和歐洲的關係破裂，[中國]外匯儲備的安全將受到極大威脅”。

中國拒絕譴責俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，並表示將繼續與兩國保持經貿合作。

北京的一位外交消息人士表示，中國擔心美國的“後果”威脅，以及與俄羅斯進行何種經濟交往可能引發製裁。

“紅線是軍售。美國玩弄模棱兩可把戲”, 消息人士說。 “他們認為歐洲可能不會參與製裁[中國]。”

自 2015 年以來，中國一直在減少對美國政府債券的敞口，但一直未能找到類似的替代品。Pettis說，投資以歐元計價的證券和日本政府債券也不是好的選擇。

他說: “歐洲需要在國外收購資產，它不會歡迎過多資金從美元轉移到歐元所引起的的後果，因為這會推高歐元的價值，並使歐洲人難以去運行經常賬戶盈餘，他們必須像中國一樣運行，因為國內需求太弱了” 。

“日本亦依靠經常賬戶盈餘來吸收內需，我們以前也看到過，如果你買太多日元，日本人就會生氣，所以你真的不能這樣做。”

Pettis說，雖然發展中國家會歡迎中國的投資，但這的敞口種被認為風險太大，黃金和其他大宗商品也是如此，因為在動盪時期，儲備資產應該是一種相對穩定的投資。

Yu和王Wag都表示，如果美國和歐洲對中國的海外投資實施制裁，北京需要考慮採取反制措施。

王表示: “海外資產和負債要平衡，特別是不要持有過多的美元資產……在需要時有能力拿出同等的反制對策” 。

王表示，中國應繼續保持經濟金融對外開放，鼓勵外國投資者持有更多中國資產，形成“更強的利益融合”。 他說，美國和歐洲“負擔不起”對中國實施類似於對俄羅斯或朝鮮的製裁。

王說: “美國很難與中國完全脫鉤，而凍結甚至沒收中國的儲備資產只能是極其罕見的瘋狂結果” 。

 So, the US’s sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine have raised concern in China over its large exposure to US government bonds, but it seems that it is difficult for the United States to completely decouple from China;  freezing or even confiscating China's reserve assets can only be an extremely rare crazy outcome. The popular understanding among some observers is not to worry to much.

Finland and Sweden, closer to joining NATO?

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

フィンランドとスウェーデン、ＮＡＴＯに近く加盟か

2022.04.10 Sun posted at 16:45 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 北欧のフィンランドとスウェーデンが、北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）の加入に近く踏み切る可能性が出て来た。

複数のＮＡＴＯ当局者は１０日までにＣＮＮの取材に応じ、両国の加盟に関する議論はロシアによるウクライナ侵攻以降、極めて重大な意味合いを帯びるようになったと明かした。

米国務省の複数の高官は、この問題は先週開かれたＮＡＴＯ外相会議でも取り上げられたとした。フィンランドとスウェーデンの両国外相もこの会議に加わっていたという。

ＮＡＴＯ当局者は、両国の加盟問題の議論が出てきたことはウクライナへの侵攻がＮＡＴＯの同盟関係を再活性化させたり、一体感を強めたりするだけの結果をもたらしたことを意味すると指摘。ロシアのプーチン大統領が侵攻で狙っていたＮＡＴＯ拡大の阻止とはまさに正反対の事態が到来したことになるとした。

プーチン氏は侵攻前、ロシアの安全保障を脅かすとしてＮＡＴＯによる東方への拡大や新規加盟の中止を要求。ＮＡＴＯは侵攻を受け、ウクライナへの支援を強化し、新規加盟国を迎え入れることを準備する状況になっている。

フィンランドの元首相はＣＮＮの取材に、スウェーデンを含めた２国のＮＡＴＯ加盟に関する国内世論はウクライナ戦争が続くにつれ、顕著な変質を見せたと説明。

フィンランドのマリン首相は８日、同国国会は「今後の数週間内」にＮＡＴＯ加入の問題を話し合う見通しとし、「夏の盛り前」には道筋をつけると述べた。

スウェーデンのアンデション首相は先月末、地元テレビ局との会見で、ＮＡＴＯ入りの可能性を否定しなかった。同国は現在、安全保障政策の分析を進め、５月末までにはまとめる予定となっている。スウェーデン政府当局者はＣＮＮの取材に、この分析結果を受け、政府の立場を明らかにするとした。

フィンランド政府当局者は、同国はＮＡＴＯの集団防衛の保障をやたらに求めて加盟を願っているわけではないと主張。むしろ、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻はフィンランドに根本的な問題の再考を強いる結果になったとし、ロシアとの関係は以前と同様のものにはなり得ないと強く認識しているとした。

一方、ロシアはスウェーデンとフィンランドがＮＡＴＯに合流するのなら、状況の均衡の再調整に迫られるだろうと牽制（けんせい）。ペスコフ大統領報道官は英スカイニュースとの会見で７日、ＮＡＴＯと対峙（たいじ）する同国の西方圏の安全保障の態勢をより高度な水準にせざるを得ないと強調した。

フィンランドは長大な国境線をロシアとの間に持つ。一部のＮＡＴＯ加盟国の間では同国がＮＡＴＯの保護下に入る前、ロシアが攻撃に踏み切る可能性も取り沙汰されている。

ＮＡＴＯのストルテンベルグ事務総長は、スウェーデンとフィンランドが決断したのなら加盟は容易だろうとの見解を表明。両国は長年、ＮＡＴＯと共に働いてきており、軍の相互運用や軍に対する民主的な統制などの問題でＮＡＴＯの基準に合致していると述べた。

Translation

(CNN) It ​​is possible that Finland and Sweden in Northern Europe could soon join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

NATO officials told CNN on the 10th that discussions of the two countries in joining as member would carry an extremely significant meaning since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

High-ranking U.S. Department of State officials said the issue had also been dealt with at the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting last week. Foreign Ministers of Finland and Sweden were said to have participated in the conference.

NATO officials pointed out that the debate over the issue of the two countries to join membership meant that the invasion of Ukraine had had the effect of revitalizing NATO's alliance and strengthening its sense of unity.  While the aim for Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade was to prevent NATO expansion, the exact opposite situation was coming out.

Before the invasion, Mr. Putin demanded NATO to stop expansion to the east and the suspension of new membership as these would threaten Russia's security. NATO after noting the invasion was ready to strengthen its support for Ukraine and welcome new member states.

The former Prime Minister of Finland told CNN that domestic public opinion about NATO accession by the two countries including Sweden showed a remarkable change as the Ukrainian war continued.

Finland's Prime Minister Marin said on the 8th that the parliament was expected to discuss the issue of joining NATO "in the next few weeks", and would pave the way for joining "before the summer."

Sweden's Prime Minister Andersson did not deny the possibility of joining NATO at a press conference with a local TV station at the end of last month. The country was currently conducting an analysis of its security policy and planned to finalize it by the end of May. A Swedish government official told CNN that based on the results of this analysis he would clarify the government’s position.

Finnish officials argued that the country was not thoughtlessly hoping to join NATO's collective defense guarantees. Rather, Russia's invasion of Ukraine had forced Finland to rethink its fundamental problems, and strongly come to recognize that relations with Russia could not be the same as before.

On the other hand, if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, Russia would check that it could be forced to readjust the balance of the situation. Dmitry Peskov the spokesman for Russia President emphasized at a press conference with Sky News on the 7th that they had no choice but to raise the level of security in the western region of Russia facing NATO.

Finland had a long border with Russia. Some NATO member states had also argued that Russia might jump to an attack before it came under NATO protection.

NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said it would be easy to join if Sweden and Finland decided. The two countries had been working with NATO for many years and said they met NATO standards on issues such as military interoperability and democratic control over the military.

              So, it is possible that Finland and Sweden in Northern Europe will soon join NATO. While some NATO member states worry that Russia may start an attack before applying states becoming members, I think at this time Russia is too busy to do that.

Ukraine, a major wheat exporter, will be unable to harvest or sow this year due to the invasion?

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

小麦の輸出大国ウクライナ、侵攻で今年の収穫や種まき不可能か

2022.04.02 Sat posted at 14:30 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 世界で最大級の小麦輸出国であるウクライナがロシア軍の侵攻を受け、小麦の収穫や備蓄していた分の輸出が今年、不可能となる可能性が非常に高いことが２日までにわかった。

フランス大統領府筋が明らかにした。国内での戦闘続行や農業従事者の手当てが出来ず、収穫や来年の作物につながる種まきの開始が非常に困難な状況になっているとした。「ウクライナ１国が世界の食糧市場のバランスを取る上での要になっている状況」とも述べた。

ウクライナ政府は３月初め、小麦、トウモロコシ、穀物、塩や肉を含む主要な農産物の輸出禁止を閣議決定した。

国連食糧農業機関（ＦＡＯ）は先月１１日、軍事侵攻によりウクライナ内の穀物の取り入れや輸出に支障が出る可能性を警告。同時に、戦闘やロシア産品に対する西側諸国の経済制裁の影響で価格上昇が起きるとも警戒していた。

米農務省によると、侵攻が起きる前のウクライナの年間の小麦輸出量は新記録に達する基調にあった。半面、ロシアの小麦輸出は減速していた。

仏大統領府筋は特に、ウクライナから中東諸国への穀物輸出が停滞していることの悪影響に懸念を示した。

Translation

2022.04.02 Sat posted at 14:30 JST

  (CNN) Ukraine, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, had been invaded by Russian troops, as such it was understood that the exporting of wheat harvested and stockpiled was very likely impossible this year.

A source from the French presidential office revealed this. It was said that because the fighting in the country continued and the care from the agricultural workers was not available, it was very difficult to start harvesting and sowing seeds that might lead to next year's crops. It was said that "Ukraine is at the key cornerstone in getting the world's food markets balancing ".

In early March, the Ukrainian government passed a cabinet decision to ban the export of major agricultural products, including wheat, corn, grains, salt and meat.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned on the 11th of last month that a military invasion could hinder the uptake and export of grains in Ukraine. At the same time, it was wary of rising prices due to the effects of fighting and economic sanctions on Russian products in Western countries.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, Ukraine's annual wheat exports were on the trend of reaching new records before the invasion. On the other hand, Russia's wheat exports were slowing.

French presidential sources were particularly concerned about the negative effects of stagnant grain exports from Ukraine to Middle Eastern countries.

              So, the exporting of wheat harvested and stockpiled will be impossible in Ukraine this year because the fighting in the country and it is very difficult to start sowing seeds that will lead to next year's crops. Obviously, Russia’s territorial ambition has a serious impact on food supply globally.

China Business Situation Index falls below 50 for the first time in 5 months - Corona restriction is a burden in March

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国景況指数5カ月ぶり50割れ　3月、コロナ規制が重荷

中国・台湾

2022年3月31日 10:51

【北京=川手伊織】中国国家統計局が31日発表した2022年3月の製造業購買担当者景気指数（PMI）は49.5と、前月より0.7ポイント低下した。5カ月ぶりに好不調の境目である50を下回った。新型コロナウイルスの感染再拡大に伴う一部都市での事実上の都市封鎖（ロックダウン）やウクライナ情勢の緊迫化に伴う資源高で景況感が悪化した。

PMIは製造業3000社を対象に調べる。新規受注や生産、従業員数など項目ごとに調査する。50を上回れば前月より拡大、下回れば縮小を示す。

分野別にみると、生産は0.9ポイント下落し49.5となった。21年10月以来の50割れとなった。新規受注と従業員数もそれぞれ1.9ポイント、0.6ポイント悪化した。需要が伸びず、新規雇用に慎重な企業が増えている。

3月に限ってみると、指数の悪化は遡れる05年以降で初めてだ。例年は春節（旧正月）休暇がある1～2月より生産が上振れしやすい。夏秋の出荷に向けて3月から人員を増やす企業が多いことも指数を押し上げてきた。

22年3月の悪化は、新型コロナの市中感染が急速に広がったためだ。広東省深圳市などが事実上の都市封鎖に踏み切り、サプライチェーン（供給網）が混乱した。調査日は22～25日のため、28日に始まった上海市の封鎖の影響は含まない。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻に伴う資源高も企業心理を冷やしている。

同時に発表した3月の非製造業のビジネス活動指数は48.4だった。2月から3.2ポイント落ち込み、21年8月以来7カ月ぶりに50を割り込んだ。地方のインフラ投資で建設業は堅調だったが、新型コロナの移動制限で宿泊や飲食、娯楽などのサービス業が節目の50を下回った。

Translation

[Beijing = Iori Kawate] The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March 2022 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 31st was 49.5, down 0.7 points from the previous month. It fell below 50, which was the boundary between good and bad, for the first time in 5 months. Business sentiment deteriorated due to the de facto shut down of some cities (lockdown) due to the debounce of the new coronavirus infection and the high price in resource due to the tense situation in Ukraine.

PMI surveyed 3,000 manufacturing companies. Survey by item such as new orders, production, and the number of employees. If it exceeded 50, it indicated an expansion from the previous month, and if it fell below 50, it indicated a contraction.

By field, production fell 0.9 points to 49.5. It fell below 50 for the first time since October 2021. New orders and the number of employees also respectively deteriorated by 1.9 points and 0.6 points. Demand was not growing and more companies were cautious about employing new staff.

As far as the month of March was concerned, a deterioration in the index was the first time since 2005. Production tended to be higher than January-February, when there was a Chinese New Year holiday every year. The fact that many companies were increasing their workforce from March toward shipments in the summer and autumn usually pushed up the index.

The deterioration in March 2010 was due to the rapid spread of the new corona infection in the city community. Shenzhen City in Guangdong Province etc. had decided to virtually block the city, and the supply chains were disrupted. Since the survey date was 22th to 25th, the impact of the blockade of Shanghai City that started on the 28th was not included. The high resource prices associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine had also cooled corporate sentiment.

The non-manufacturing business activity index for March released at the same time was 48.4. It fell by 3.2 points from February and fell below 50 for the first time in 7 months since August 2021. The construction industry was strong due to investment in local infrastructure, but the service industry such as accommodation, eating and drinking, and entertainment fell below the critical point of 50 due to the movement restrictions because of the new Corona.

              So, the PMI for March 2022 announced by China is 49.5, down 0.7 points from the previous month. The deterioration in March is due to the rapid spread of the new corona infections in a few cities that cause lockdown. When the new corona infections end, probably the index will go up again.

中國幾間最大的銀行預示著即將來臨的艱難時期

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China's largest banks signal tough times ahead

Tue, March 29, 2022, 1:46 AM

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Three of China's largest banks have said that the country's lenders face multiple headwinds this year that include the pandemic, global politics and domestic turmoil in the real estate industry.

China's banking industry is facing "a more complicated and severe business environment," the country's second-biggest lender by assets China Construction Bank Corp (CCB), said on Tuesday.

"The global epidemic will continue to recur, the easing policies of developed economies will be withdrawn, geopolitical conflicts will intensify," Bank of China (BoC), the country's fourth-largest bank by assets, also said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the president of China's Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BoCom), on Friday said it would be difficult for the bank to deliver satisfactory earnings this year.

China has been battling a resurgence in COVID infections in some of its largest cities, which has led to partial and full-scale lockdowns which analysts say will be a drag on the economy.

The main impact on banks will be "rising loan delinquencies among service sectors," said Nicholas Zhu, a banking analyst at Moody's.

"These industries include wholesale and retail, leisure travel and other consumer discretionary services," he added.

The banks' warnings about the difficult outlook came alongside full-year net profit figures from the three lenders that beat estimates.

At BoC, profit for the full year increased 12.3% to 216.6 billion yuan, above a Refinitiv estimate of 199.1 billion yuan from 17 analysts. It was the same story at CCB, where net profit for the full year increased 11.6% to 302.5 billion yuan, compared with a Refinitiv estimate of 293.1 billion yuan from 21 analysts.

The non-performing loan ratio at CCB fell to 1.42% at year-end compared with 1.51% three months ago, while at BoC it was 1.33% by year-end, compared with 1.29% end of September.

The net interest margin, a key gauge of bank profitability, stood steady at 1.75% from the previous three months for BoC, while at CCB it dropped to 1.94% at the end of the year from 2.12% three months earlier.

($1 = 6.3673 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Zhang Yan, Engen Tham; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Louise Heavens and Jane Merriman)

Translation

上海（路透社）- 中國最大的三家銀行表示，中國的貸方今年面臨多重不利因素，包括疫情、全球政治和國內房地產行業的動盪。

中國按資產計算的第二大銀行中國建設銀行（CCB）週二表示, 中國的銀行業務正面臨“更加複雜和嚴峻的商業環境” 。

中國銀行（按資產計中國第四大銀行）週二也表示 “全球疫情將繼續復發，發達經濟體的寬鬆政策將退出，地緣政治衝突將加劇” 。

與此同時，中國交通銀行股份有限公司 (BoCom) 行長周五表示，該銀行今年很難實現令人滿意的收益。

中國一些大城市一直在與新冠病毒感染病例的死灰復燃作鬥爭，這導致部分和全面封鎖，分析人士稱這將拖累經濟。

穆迪銀行分析師 Nicholas Zhu 表示，對銀行的主要影響將是“服務行業的貸款拖欠率上升”。

他補充說:“這些行業包括批發和零售、休閒旅遊和其他非必需消費服務，”。

銀行對艱難前景發出警告的同時，三家銀行的全年淨利潤數據超出預期。

在中行，全年利潤增長 12.3% 至 2,166 億元人民幣，高於 Refinitiv 17 位分析師估計的 1,991 億元人民幣。建行的情況也是如此，全年淨利潤增長 11.6% 至 3,025 億元，相對 Refinitiv 的 21 位分析師的估計 2,931 億元。

建行的不良貸款率從三個月前的 1.51% 下降到年底的 1.42%，而中行的不良貸款率從 9 月底的 1.29% 下降到年末的 1.33%。

淨息差是衡量銀行盈利能力的關鍵指標，中行的淨息較前三個月穩定在 1.75%，而建行則從三個月前的 2.12%降至年底的 1.94%。

So, three of China's largest banks have said that the country's lenders face multiple headwinds this year which include the pandemic, global politics and domestic turmoil in the real estate industry.

印度小麥出口激增緩解全球短缺

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Booming Wheat Exports from India to Ease Global Shortage

Pratik Parija and Ruchi Bhatia

Mon, March 28, 2022, 10:55 PM

(Bloomberg) -- In a world where people are worrying more than ever about food shortages and rising inflation, India’s warehouses are brimming over with grain and the country’s farmers are gearing up for yet another record harvest.

The country is the top global producer of wheat after China and has the potential to ship 12 million tons to the world market in the 2022-23 year, the most on record, according to the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg survey of traders, millers and analysts. That compares with shipments of 8.5 million tons in 2021-22, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

Prices of farm commodities were already on a tear before the Russian invasion of Ukraine as drought shriveled global harvests and demand increased, helping send world food costs to the highest on record. The war made matters even worse because it has choked shipments from one of the planet’s top producing regions, cutting off more than a quarter of the world’s wheat supplies.

“Indian wheat exports help the market in a tight world supply situation,” said Vijay Iyengar, chairman and managing director of Singapore-based Agrocorp International, which trades about 12 million tons of grain annually. “It helps to keep a lid on global prices as well. If India wasn’t exporting wheat in large quantities, prices would have probably escalated further.”

Benchmark wheat prices in Chicago surged to an all-time high of $13.635 a bushel this month after the Russian invasion, compared with an average of only around $5.50 a bushel in the five years through the day preceding the attack.

Tightening supply and rising prices for grain from major exporting countries have made Indian wheat competitive for the first time in years. With ballooning inventories after five straight record crops, India has a huge exportable surplus. That will be crucial for importers in North Africa and the Middle East where soaring food prices sparked violent uprisings more than a decade ago.

While India has tended to ship wheat mostly to neighboring countries such as Bangladesh and to some Middle Eastern markets, exporters are now likely to find buyers across Africa and in other areas of the Middle Eastern region.

Market Frenzy

“Practically every market needs to consider Indian wheat now, particularly in the vicinity of Asia, Africa and the Middle East,” said Iyengar, who has traded commodities for more than three decades. “We have not seen this kind of frenzy for Indian wheat in the global market before.”

India is in final talks to start wheat shipments to Egypt, the world’s top buyer, while discussions are in progress with countries such as China, Turkey, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria and Iran, the commerce ministry said this month. Wheat exports from India were already up more than fourfold to about 6 million tons in the 10 months through January from a year earlier, government data show.

Shipping times to the Middle East will be longer than from traditional Black Sea exporters Ukraine and Russia, but India is well positioned to step in as a low-cost wheat supplier, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Australia, one of the world’s top exporters, is already feeling the heat. Australian wheat is competitively priced, said Jason Craig, chief marketing and trading officer at CBH Group, the biggest shipper. “But Indian wheat is certainly at a lower value,” and “we’re starting to see that compete against Australian wheat in some of our traditional markets,” like Indonesia, he said.

State-run warehouses in India held more than 23 million tons of wheat at the beginning of March, about three times the level required by the government for this time of year, Food Corp. of India data show.

 Translation

(彭博社) - 在一個人們比以往任何時候都更擔心糧食短缺和通脹上升的世界裡，印度的倉庫裡裝滿了穀物，該國的農民正為又一個創紀錄的收成做準備。

根據彭博對貿易商、磨坊主和分析師調查的五項估計值的中位數，該國是僅次於中國的全球最大小麥生產國，並有可能在 2022-23 年向世界市場出口 1,200 萬噸小麥，創歷史新高。相比之下，美國農業部的數據顯示， 其2021-22 年的出貨量為 850 萬噸。

在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，由於乾旱導致全球收成萎縮且需求增加，農產品價格已經大幅上漲，這導致世界食品成本達到歷史最高水平。這場入侵戰爭使情況變得更糟，因為它扼殺了地球上最大產區之一的發貨，切斷了全球四分之一以上的小麥供應。

總部位於新加坡的 Agrocorp International 董事長兼董事總經理 Vijay Iyengar 說: “在全球供應緊張的情況下，印度小麥出口有助於市場”，該公司每年交易約 1,200 萬噸穀物。 “這也有助於控制全球價格。如果印度沒有大量出口小麥，價格可能會進一步上漲。”

在俄羅斯入侵後，本月芝加哥的基準小麥價格飆升至每蒲式耳 13.635 美元的歷史新高，而襲擊前一天的五年平均價格僅為每蒲式耳 5.50 美元左右。

主要出口國的糧食供應趨緊和價格上漲使印度小麥多年來首次具有競爭力。在連續五次創紀錄的收成之後，及隨著庫存的膨脹，印度擁有巨大的出口盈餘。這對北非和中東的進口商來說至關重要，十多年前食品價格飆升引發了暴力起義。

雖然印度傾向於將小麥主要運往孟加拉國等鄰國和一些中東市場，但出口商現在可能會在非洲和中東地區的其他地區找到買家。

市場狂熱

從事大宗商品交易超過 30 年的Iyengar說: “現在幾乎每個市場都需要考慮印度小麥，特別是在亞洲、非洲和中東附近”; “我們以前在全球市場上從未見過這種對印度小麥的狂熱。”

印度商務部本月表示，印度正在就開始向世界最大買家埃及運送小麥進行最後談判，同時與中國、土耳其、波斯尼亞、蘇丹、尼日利亞和伊朗等國的討論正在進行中。政府數據顯示，在截至 1 月份的 10 個月裡，印度的小麥出口量已經比去年同期增長了 4 倍多，達到約 600 萬噸。

根據美國農業部的外國農業服務局的數據，到中東的運輸時間將比傳統的黑海出口國烏克蘭和俄羅斯更長，但印度有能力成為低成本小麥供應國。

澳大利亞是世界最大的出口國之一，已經感受到了壓力。最大的托運人 CBH Group 首席營銷和貿易官 Jason Craig 表示，澳大利亞小麥的價格具有競爭力。他說: “但印度小麥的價格肯定較低”, 並且“開始看到印度小麥在我們的一些傳統市場上與澳大利亞小麥競爭”, 例如印尼。

印度食品公司的數據顯示，3 月初，印度國營倉庫的小麥庫存量超過 2,300 萬噸，約為政府每年這個時候所需水平的三倍。

So, while globally people are worrying more than ever about food shortages and rising inflation, India’s warehouses are having a grain surplus and the country’s wheat are gearing up to put on sale overseas.