Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:
7～9月のGDPきょう発表 個人消費落ち込みで民間はマイナス予測
2021年11月15日 0時11分
ことし7月から9月までのGDP＝国内総生産が15日に発表されます。民間の予測の平均は、物価の変動を除いた実質の伸び率が小幅ながらマイナスとなっていて、結果が注目されます。
GDPは15日午前8時50分、内閣府が発表します。
公益社団法人の「日本経済研究センター」が集計した民間のエコノミスト37人の予測の平均は、物価の変動を除いた実質の伸び率が、年率換算でマイナス0.56％となりました。実際にマイナスとなれば2期ぶりです。
これは、当時出されていた緊急事態宣言の影響で、GDPの半分以上を占める「個人消費」が落ち込むとみられることが主な要因です。個人消費の民間予測は、前の3か月と比べて、マイナス0.47％となりました。
今回のGDPがプラスになると見込むエコノミストもいますが、上位8人の予測の平均は年率換算でプラス0.80％にとどまっていて、結果が注目されます。
10月～12月のGDPはプラス予測も
一方、10月から12月にかけてのGDPについては、プラスになると見込む専門家が多くなっています。
公益社団法人の「日本経済研究センター」によりますと、来月までの3か月間のGDPの予測は、民間のエコノミスト37人の現時点での平均で、物価の変動を除いた実質の伸び率が、年率換算でプラス4.93％となっています。緊急事態宣言が9月末までの期限で解除され、このところの感染状況も落ち着いていることで、GDPの半分以上を占める「個人消費」が回復に向かうと見ているためです。
個人がこれまで我慢してきた消費が盛り上がる、いわゆる「リベンジ消費」が期待できるという声もあり、来月までの3か月間の「個人消費」の民間予測は、前の3か月と比べて、プラス1.69％となっています。ただ、この予測は、新型コロナウイルスの第6波など、感染が再び急激に拡大しないことが前提になっているとみられます。
ほかのリスク要因もあります。「原油価格の高騰」と、「悪い円安」です。
原油高は、さまざまな原材料価格の上昇を招きます。企業収益が圧迫され、個人の所得が上がらない中で「悪い円安」が進むと、新型コロナで打撃を受けている企業経営や家計のさらなる負担につながるおそれがあります。
政府は、GDPがコロナ前の水準に戻る時期を「年内」と見込んでいますが、引き続き経済が下押しされるリスクは大きいという指摘も根強いのが現状です。
Translation
GDP = gross domestic product from July to September this year would be announced on the 15th. As for the average of private forecasts, the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations was slightly negative, and the results were noteworthy.
GDP would be announced by the Cabinet Office at 8:50 am on
the 15th.
The average forecast of 37 private economists compiled by
the Japan Center for Economic Research, a public interest incorporated
association, showed that the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations was
minus 0.56% on an annualized basis. If it actually became negative, it would be
the first time in two terms.
The main reason for this was that "personal consumption," which accounted for more than half of GDP, was expected to decline due to the impact of the state of emergency issued at that time. Private consumption forecasts were minus 0.47% compared to the previous three months.
There were also economists expecting GDP to be positive this time, but the average of the top eight forecasts was only + 0.80% on an annualized basis, and the result was noteworthy.
October-December GDP was also forecast to be positive
On the other hand, many experts expect GDP for October to
December to be positive.
According to the Japan Center for Economic Research, a
public interest incorporated association, the average GDP forecast for the
three months up to next month made by 37 private economists at this point in
time, and with the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations, was + 4.93%
on an annualized basis. This was because the state of emergency had been lifted
by the end of September, and the infection situation had settled down recently,
so it was expected that "personal consumption," which accounted for
more than half of GDP, could recover.
There was also a voice that the so-called "revenge consumption" could be expected, in which the consumption that individuals had held back so far could rise, and the private forecast of "personal consumption" for the three months up to next month, compared with the previous three months, could a plus 1.69%. However, this prediction seemed to be based on the premise that the infection would not spread rapidly again, such as the sixth wave of the new coronavirus.
There were other risk factors as well. "Rising crude oil prices" and "the undesirable weak yen".
High oil prices led to higher prices for various raw materials. If the “undesirable weak yen” progressed, corporate profits could be squeezed and individual income would not rise, it might lead to further burdens on corporate management and households that had been hit by the new corona.
While the government expected GDP to return to pre-corona
levels "within the year", currently it had been strongly pointed out
that the risk of continued economic downturn was high.
So, while
the Japanese government expects GDP to return to the pre-corona levels
"within the year", there is also a risk of continued economic
downturn.
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