西方如何邀請中國吃進其飯碗 (2 of 2)

Recently BBC News on-line reported the following:

How the West invited China to eat its lunch (2 of 2)

Faisal Islam - Economics editor

Fri., December 10, 2021, 11:51 p.m.

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Container ships are the juggernauts of global trade. In the five years after China joined the WTO, the number of containers on ships coming in and out of China doubled from 40 million to more than 80 million. By 2011, a decade after the country became a WTO member, the number of containers going in and out of China had more than trebled to 129 million.

Last year it was 245 million, and while about half of the containers going into China were empty, nearly all those leaving China were full of exports.

There has also been a massive expansion in China's highway network, which increased from 4,700km in 1997 to 161,000km by 2020, making it the largest network in the world, connecting 99% of cities with populations of over 200,000.

In addition to its state-of-the-art freight infrastructure, China also needs materials such as metals, minerals and fossil fuels to support its manufacturing boom. One material essential to China's burgeoning automotive and electrical appliance industries is steel. In 2005 China became, for the first time, a net exporter of steel, and has since become the world's largest exporter.

Through the 1990s, China's production of steel hovered at around 100 million tones per year. After WTO membership, it exploded to around 700 million tones by 2012 and exceeded one billion tones in 2020.

China now accounts for 57% of world production and produces significantly more steel on its own than the rest of the globe managed together back in 2001. The same goes for ceramic tiles, and plenty of other ingredients of industry.

In electronics, clothing, toys and furniture, China became the dominant source of supply, forcing down export prices all around the world. Economists noticed a "once-for-all" shock in global prices following China's WTO entry. China's clothing exports doubled between 2000 and 2005, and its share of the value of global trade went from one fifth to one third.

After 2005, production quotas in the textile industry were also lifted, leading to an even bigger production shift to China. However, as production in China became more expensive and production has shifted to developing countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, this has fallen back to 32% of clothes last year.

The Chinese minister responsible for WTO accession, Long Yongtu, made an admission reflecting on the past two decades. "I don't believe China's WTO accession was a historic job-killing mistake [for the US and the West]," he said. "However I recognize the allocation or the benefit is uneven. The complete picture is that when China got his own development, it also provided the rest of the world with a huge export market."

But there was a sting in the tail - that it was US politics that failed to account for the inevitable impact of Chinese competition on some sectors. "When the uneven distribution of wealth happens, a government should take measures to adjust that distribution through domestic policies, but it's not easy to do that," said Long Yongtu.

"Maybe blaming others much easier, but I don't think blaming others can help to solve the problem. In China's absence, the US manufacturing industry would move to Mexico."

He then relayed an anecdote of a Chinese glass manufacturer who struggled with opening a factory in the USA: "It's very difficult for him to find competitive workers there. He told me American workers' bellies are bigger than his," said the minister.

So right now we have come full circle. China has had significant economic success within the WTO. Right now the Biden administration seems in no hurry to change the obstructive policies of his predecessor there. The trade skepticism is very real. China has used WTO membership to go well beyond its earmarked role as workshop to the West.

It has, for example, strategically planned alliances to get access to significant amounts of the rare earth materials that should power the net zero climate change economic revolution. It has deployed the state behind industrial expansion around the world. The US is looking to contain China diplomatically and economically, and seeking allies in this endeavor in Europe and Asia.

As former US trade representative Barshefsky puts it, China has been "on this very divergent course for some time. What does that mean? A strengthening of a state-centric economic model fueled by massive subsidization to designated industries… the re-emergence of China as a great power, and the leader of what it calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This is a lot to handle. The WTO can't handle it."

So, 20 years on - the world transformed by a little-noticed decision. It's been a huge success for China. The intended geopolitical strategy of the West failed. Indeed, rather than China becoming more like the West politically, as a result of this decision, the West economically speaking is becoming a bit more like China.

Translation

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集裝箱船是全球貿易的主宰。中國加入世貿組織五年後，進出中國的船舶集裝箱數量翻了一番，從4000萬個增加到8000萬多個。到 2011 年，即中國加入 WTO 十年後，進出中國的集裝箱數量增加了三倍多，達到 1.29 億個。

去年是 2.45 億個，雖然進入中國的集裝箱約有一半是空的，但幾乎所有離開中國的集裝箱都裝滿了出口。

中國的公路網也得到了大規模擴張，從 1997 年的 4,700 公里增加到 2020 年的 161,000 公里，成為世界上最大的公路網，連接了超過 20 萬人的城市的99%人口。

除了最先進的貨運基礎設施，中國還需要金屬、礦物和化石燃料等材料來支持其製造業繁榮。對於中國蓬勃發展的汽車和電器行業來說，一種必不可少的材料是鋼鐵。 2005年，中國首次成為鋼鐵淨出口國，並成為世界第一大出口國。

到 1990 年代，中國的鋼鐵產量每年徘徊在 1 億噸左右。加入世貿組織後，它在 2012 年激增至約 7 億噸，並在 2020 年超過 10 億噸。

中國現在佔世界產量的 57%，而且中國自己生產的鋼鐵, 比 2001 年全球其他地區的總產量要多得多。瓷磚和許多其他工業成分也是如此。

在電子、服裝、玩具和家具方面，中國成為主要供應來源，迫使世界各地的出口價格下降。經濟學家注意到，在中國加入世貿組織後，全球價格出現了“一次過”的衝擊。 在2000 年至 2005 年中國的服裝出口翻了一番，佔全球貿易額的份額從五分之一上升到三分之一。

在2005年後，紡織業的生產配額也被免除，導致更大的生產轉移到中國。然而，隨著中國的生產變得更加昂貴以及生產轉移到孟加拉國和越南等發展中國家，這一服裝比例已回落至去年的 32%。

負責加入世貿組織的中國部長龍永圖Long Yongtu回顧加入後過去的二十年。 他說: “我不認為中國加入世貿組織是一個歷史性的扼殺工作崗位的錯誤 [對美國和西方來說]”。 “但我承認分配或收益是不平衡的。整體情況是，當中國獲得自己的發展時，它也為世界其他地區提供了一個巨大的出口市場。”

但這有一個出乎意料及令人不快或的結局是 - 美國的政治沒有考慮到中國競爭對某些行業的不可避免的影響。 龍永圖說: “當財富分配不均時，政府應該採取措施通過國內政策來調整分配，但這是並不容易是做到的”。

“也許指責別人容易得多，但我認為指責別人無助於解決問題。如果沒有中國，美國製造業將轉移到墨西哥。”

隨後，他講述了一位中國玻璃製造商在美國開廠時遇到的困難 - 部長說:“他很難在那裡找到有競爭力的工人。他告訴我，美國工人的肚腩比他的還大”。

所以現在我們已經回到了原點。中國在世貿組織內取得了巨大的經濟成功。目前，拜登政府似乎並不急於改變其前任在那裡的阻撓政策。對貿易的懷疑是非常真實。中國利用世貿組織成員資格遠遠超出了其作為西方工廠的指定角色。

例如，它有戰略規劃的聯盟，以獲得大量的稀土材料，這些材料應該為淨零氣候變化經濟革命提供動力。它署了國家在全球工業擴張的背後。美國正在尋求在外交和經濟上遏制中國，並在歐洲和亞洲尋求盟友進行這一努力。

正如前美國貿易代表Barshefsky所說，中國“在這條非常不同的道路上已經有一段時間了。這意味著什麼？通過對指定行業的大規模補貼來加強以國家為中心的經濟模式……中國的重新崛起作為一個大國，它的領導者稱之為第四次工業革命。這要處理很多事情。世貿組織是無法處理” 。

因此，20 年後 - 世界因一個鮮為人知的決定而改變。對中國來說這是一個巨大的成功。西方預期的地緣政治戰略失敗了。事實上，作為這一決定的結果，中國在政治上並沒有變得更像西方，而是在經濟西方上變得更像中國。

        So, 20 years after joining the WTO it's been a huge success for China. Indeed, rather than China becoming more like the West politically, China gains economic strength and confidence to challenge the West in many respects. The confrontation between China and the western powers will continue.