西方如何邀請中國吃進其飯碗 (1 of 2)

Recently BBC News on-line reported the following:

How the West invited China to eat its lunch (1 of 2)

Faisal Islam - Economics editor

Fri., December 10, 2021, 11:51 p.m.

There were two events in late 2001 that shook the axis of the world.

The world was preoccupied with the immediate aftermath of 9/11. But exactly three months later, on 11 December, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was at the centre of an event that was to cast as strong a shadow over the 21st century, changing more people's lives and livelihoods around the world than the attacks on America.

Yet few know it even happened, let alone its date. China's admission to the World Trade Organization changed the game for America, Europe and most of Asia, and indeed for any country in possession of industrially valuable resources, such as oil and metals.

It was a largely unnoticed event of epic geopolitical and economic importance. It was the root imbalance behind the global financial crisis. The domestic political backlash against the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to China has reverberated around the western G7 nations.

The promise, suggested by the likes of former US President Bill Clinton, was that "importing one of democracy's most cherished values, economic freedom", would enable the world's most populous nation to follow the path of political freedom too.

"When individuals have the power not just to dream, but to realize their dreams, they will demand a greater say," he said.

But that strategy failed. China began its ascent to its current status as the world's second biggest economy - and is on a seemingly inevitable path to becoming the world's biggest.

Indeed the US trade representative responsible for negotiating China's WTO deal, Charlene Barshefsky, told a Washington International Trade Association panel this week that China's economic model "somewhat disproved" the Western view that "you can't have an innovative society, and political control"

"It's not to say that China's innovative capacity is enhanced by its economic model," she added. "But it is to say that what the West thought were incompatible systems may not be necessarily incompatible systems."

Up until 2000 China's global economic role had been principally as one of the world's biggest manufacturers of plastic gubbins and cheap tat. Important, yes, but neither world-beating nor world-changing.

China's accession to the top table of world trade heralded a massive global transformation. A powerful combination of China's willing workforce, its super-high-tech factories, and the special relationship between the Chinese government and Western multinational corporations changed the face of the planet.

An army of cheap Chinese labor began to produce the goods that underpin Western living standards, as China seamlessly inserted itself into the supply chains of the world's biggest companies. Economists call it a "supply shock", and its impact certainly was shocking. Its effects are still reverberating around the world.

China's integration into the world economy has seen significant economic achievements, including the eradication of extreme poverty, which stood at 500 million before WTO membership and is now basically zero as the value of the economy, in dollar terms, increased 12-fold. Foreign exchange reserves increased 16-fold to $2.3 trillion, as the world's purchases from China's workshops were banked by the Chinese state.

In 2000, China was the seventh-largest goods exporter in the world, but it quickly reached the number one spot. China's annual growth rate, already at 8%, went stratospheric at the height of the world boom, peaking at 14%, and stabilized at 15% last year.

(to be continued)

Translation

2001 年末有兩件事震動了世界軸心。

全世界都在關注 9/11 的直接後果。但就在三個月後，即 12 月 11 日，世界貿易組織 (WTO) 成為了一場事件的中心，這場事件給 21 世紀投下了同樣強大的陰影，改變了全世界人民的生活和生計，但不是襲擊美國。

然而很少有人知道它發生了，更不用說它的日期。中國加入世界貿易組織改變了美國、歐洲和亞洲大部分地區的遊戲規則，也改變了任何擁有具有工業價值的資源的國家, 例如石油和金屬等。

這是一個在很大程度上被忽視的具地緣政治和經濟重要性的事件。這是全球金融危機的失衡的背後根源。國內反對將製造業工作崗位外給中國的政治反彈已在西方 G7 國家引起反響。

美國前總統克林頓 (Bill Clinton)等人提出的承諾是，“引入民主最珍貴的價值之一:經濟自由”，將使世界上人口最多的國家也走上政治自由的道路。

他說:“當個人不僅有能力做夢，而且有能力實現夢想時，他們會要求更大的發言權”。

但是這個策略失敗了。中國開始上升到目前世界第二大經濟體的地位 - 而且似乎是向必會成為世界最大經濟體之路進發。

事實上，負責談判中國 WTO 協議的美國貿易代表Charlene Barshefsky 本週在華盛頓國際貿易協會的一個小組中表示，中國的經濟模式“在一定程度上反駁了”西方的觀點，即“你不能擁有一個有創意但同時有政治控制的社會” 。

她補充道:“這並不是說中國的創新能力是因其經濟模式而強大”; “但這就是說，西方認為不兼容的系統並不一定就是不能兼容” 。

直到 2000 年，中國在全球經濟中的作用, 主要是作為世界上最大的塑料雜物和廉價紡織品製造商之一。這很重要，是的，但既不能成世界之冠，也不能改變世界。

中國躋身世界貿易榜首群之中，預示著一場大規模的全球變革。中國自願的勞動力、超級高科技工廠, 以及中國政府與西方跨國公司之間的特殊關係的強大組合改變了地球的面貌。

隨著中國無縫地融入世界大公司的供應鏈，廉價的中國勞動力大軍開始生產商品支撐西方生活水平。經濟學家稱其為“供應衝擊”，其影響當然令人震驚。它的影響仍在世界範圍內迴盪。

中國融入世界經濟取得了顯著的經濟成就，包括消除極端貧困，在加入世貿組織之前，貧困人口為5億，現在基本為零，經濟價值以美元計算增長了12倍。外匯儲備增加了 16 倍，達到 2.3 萬億美元，因為世界從中國工廠購買的商品的錢是被中國政府存入銀行。

2000年，中國是世界第七大商品出口國，但很快就躍居第一。中國的年增長率已經達到了 8%，在世界經濟繁榮的高峰期間達到14%的頂峰，並在去年穩定在 15%。

（待續）