Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:
中国の出生率、建国以来最低を記録 今年から人口減少か
2021.12.02 Thu posted at 20:20 JST
香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国の出生率は昨年、１９４９年の建国以来、最低を記録したことが分かった。出生率の低下はさらに続き、今年から人口が減少に転じるとの見方もある。
国家統計局が先月末に公表した統計年鑑によると、昨年の出生率（人口１０００人あたりの出生数）は８．５にとどまった。
今年５月に発表された国勢調査の結果でも、昨年生まれた子どもは１２００万人と、一昨年の１４６５万人から１８％も急減していた。
専門家らはこれまで、中国の人口が今後数十年のうちに減少に転じるとの見通しを示してきたが、それが大きく前倒しになる可能性も指摘されている。
北京大学の経済学者、ジェームズ・リアン教授は暫定データに基づく予測として、「今年の出生数は１０００万前後かそれ以下となる可能性が非常に高い」との見方を示す。
同氏は先月、ＳＮＳへの投稿で「中国の人口は２０２１年からマイナス成長となる可能性が非常に高い」という見解を示した。５月の時点では国勢調査の結果を受け、人口減少が２２年に始まると予想していたが、「当時の予測は楽観的すぎたようだ」と書いている。
出生率はほかにも多くの国で低下傾向にあるが、中国では特に「一人っ子政策」の影響で大きく落ち込んだ。一人っ子政策は１５年に廃止され、夫婦１組につき２人まで子どもを持つことが認められたが、出生率は翌年上昇した後、再び下がり続けている。
当局はさらに第３子を容認する方針を示したものの、大きな効果は期待できないとの見方が強い。
中国の合計特殊出生率（１人の女性が生涯に産むと見込まれる子どもの数）は１．３と、日本の１．３４よりさらに低い。
合計特殊出生率が中国を下回る数少ない国としては、シンガポール（１．１）や韓国（０．８４）が挙げられる。中国の少子化は今後も続き、まもなくこうした数値に並ぶだろうと、リアン教授は予測する。上海や北京などの大都市ではすでに０．７前後と、世界最低レベルにあるという。
人口の高齢化と労働人口の減少は、中国の経済や社会の安定を大きく揺るがしかねない。
高齢化に圧迫される若者たちの間では、すでに非婚化が進んでいる。統計年鑑によると、昨年届け出のあった結婚は８１０万件と、７年連続で減少。１３年のピークからは４０％減となった。
地方当局は一人っ子政策の時代から一転して、子育て世帯への現金支給や育児休暇延長などの支援策を打ち出している。だが企業側がそのコストを負うとなれば、余計な負担を避けようとする力が働き、女性がかえって不利な状況に追い込まれることも懸念される。
中国で急増する中間所得層にとって最大の問題は、子育てにかかる費用だ。リアン教授は、地方だけでなく中央政府が子育て手当や税制優遇措置などの経済的支援を講じ、保育施設の整備などに力を入れるべきだと主張する。
子どもを産まない理由として、住居費や教育費の高さを上げる声も多い。政府が最近、学習塾への締め付けを強めているのは、家庭の教育費負担を軽減するのが狙いとみられているが、リアン教授はこれを「対症療法にすぎない」と批判。長期的な解決策として、大学入試制度の改革を提案している。
Translation
According to the Statistical Yearbook released by the
National Bureau of Statistics at the end of last month, the birth rate (number
of births per 1,000 people) stood at 8.5 last year.
According to the results of the census released in May this
year, the number of children born last year was 12 million, a sharp decrease of
18% from 14.65 million two years ago.
While experts had previously predicted that China's
population could begin to decline in the coming decades, they had also pointed
out that it could beome significantly ahead of schedule.
Based on preliminary data Peking University economist
Professor James Lian (ジェームズ・リアン)
said, "It's very likely that this year's births will be around 10 million
or less".
Guangzhou city demographer Ho Yahu (ホー・ヤフ) also estimated the number of
births this year to be between 9.5 million and 10.5 million based on data from
local authorities while the annual death toll in China in recent years was
around 10 million. If the number of births fell below this, the population would
decrease.
He said in a post on SNS last month that "China's
population is very likely to experience negative growth from 2021". As of
May, he expected the population to decline beginning 2022 based on the results
of the census, but afterwards he wrote that "the forecast made at that
time seemed too optimistic."
Birth rates were declining in many other countries, but in
China it had fallen sharply, especially due to the "one-child
policy." The one-child policy was abolished in 2015, allowing individual
couple to have up to two children, this had increased the birth rate in the
following year but the rate continued to decline after that.
Authorities had indicated that they would allow the third
child, but there were strong views that no significant effect could be expected
China's total fertility rate (the number of children a woman
is expected to give birth in her lifetime) was 1.3, which was even lower than
Japan's 1.34.
Singapore (1.1) and South Korea (0.84) were among the few
countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) lower than China. Professor Lian
predicted that China's declining birthrate could continue and might soon be in
line with these figures. In big cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, it was
already around 0.7, which was the lowest level in the world.
The aging of the population and the declining working
population could greatly shake the stability of China's economy and society.
Among young people who were under pressure from the aging
population, not-to-marriage was already progressing. According to the
Statistical Yearbook, the number of marriages reported last year was 8.1
million, down for the seventh consecutive year. It decreased by 40% from the
peak in 2013.
Local authorities had turned around from the one-child
policy era and came up with support measures such as cash payments to
child-rearing households and extension of childcare leave. However, if the
companies were to bear the cost, it was feared that this would start a force to
avoid the extra burden, and the female could be forced into a disadvantageous
situation.
The biggest problem for the rapidly increasing middle-income
group in China was the cost of raising children. Professor Lian argued that not
only the local government but also the central government should provide
financial support such as childcare allowances and tax incentives, and focused
on the development of childcare facilities.
Many people said that the rising cost of housing and
education was a reason for not having children. The government's recent
tightening control over cram schools was believed to be aiming at reducing the
burden of education costs at home, but Professor Lian criticized this as
"only a makeshift treatment". He proposed to reform the college
entrance examination system as a long-term solution.
So, China's
birth rate last year turned out to be the lowest since its founding in 1949.
There is a view that the birth rate would continue to drop and the
population may begin to decline starting from 2021. As the aging of the
population and the declining of working population may shake the stability of
China's economy and society, I am interested in knowing how China will handle
this.
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