Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported
the following:
香港市場、深まる中国化 米中対立の矢面に
チャートは語る
米中衝突
2020年6月7日 2:00 ［有料会員限定記事］
政治の混迷と対照的に、香港の金融市場は意外な活況を示す。香港株は5日まで5日続伸し、3カ月ぶりの高値を付けた。外国為替市場では中国ゲーム大手のネットイースやネット通販の京東集団（JDドットコム）の株式上場を控えて香港ドル買いが止まらず、通貨当局は香港ドル売りの市場介入に踏み切った。
トランプ政権が米上場の中国企業に厳しい目を向け始め「中国回帰」の一環として香港上場を探る企業が増えており、この傾向はまだ続きそうだ。香港市場のにわかな活況を支えるのも中国本土マネーだ。1月以降、中国本土からの香港株の買越額は2783億香港ドル（約3.9兆円）と2019年通年を上回った。
中国本土は厳しい資本規制があり、国境をまたぐ投資に制約が多い。中国企業は自由な市場を持つ香港を窓口に世界との投資マネーのやりとりを進めてきた。香港と中国を結ぶ投資マネーの直近残高は2.4兆ドル（約260兆円）と、15年末比で47%増えた。
海外展開の足掛かりに香港を使う本土企業も増えている。統括機能を香港に置く本土企業は19年に216社と、5年間で2倍近くに達した。香港取引所の上場企業に占める中国本土企業の割合は時価総額ベースで70%を超えた。
香港経由で海外投資家が本土株に投資したり、本土投資家が香港株に投資したりする相互取引の額は右肩上がりが続く。香港が没落すれば、こうした資金の流れが目詰まりを起こす。中国人民銀行（中央銀行）は4日「香港の国際金融センターとしての発展を支持する」と表明した。国家安全法によって香港市場が混乱する事態は何としても避けたいのが本音だ。
ただ、香港市民の間では「一国二制度」崩壊への不安が広がる。海外移住を支援する美聯移民顧問には5月に前年同月の40倍となる800件の相談が寄せられた。同社の鄭天殷氏は「移住を選択肢の一つと考えていた人が決意を固めたようだ」と話す。
国家安全法の制定方針が決まった5月28日、街中の両替所から米ドル札が消えた。香港ドルの値動きを米ドルに連動させる「ペッグ制」が見直されるとの臆測から、香港ドルを手放す人が相次いだ。直物市場での高騰と正反対に、2年先の香港ドルを予想する先物市場は5月下旬にペッグ制の下限である1米ドル=7.85香港ドルを下回った。香港政府は4400億ドルもの外貨準備を持ち、ペッグ制の維持に自信を示すが、米国の存在を無視できない。
トランプ政権による香港への優遇見直しには米ドルと香港ドルの交換制限という選択肢もある。経済への影響があまりにも大きすぎて実際には使えないという意味で「核オプション」と呼ばれてきたが、不安は消えない。倉田徹・立教大教授は「米国の対中政策の激変で、香港は経済冷戦の最前線に立つ」と話す。
「中国がすぐに金融市場を自由化するのは不可能」（香港中文大学の荘太量・副教授）なだけに、中国は今後も香港市場に世界とのマネーのやりとりを頼らざるをえない。その香港が機能不全に陥れば中国も大きなしっぺ返しを受ける。そして世界経済も無傷ではいられない。（香港=木原雄士、真鍋和也）
Translation
Hong Kong was at the forefront of the US-China conflict. As the US Trump administration expanded the field of confrontation with China from trade to financial markets, for China, the financial center Hong Kong which was a node with the world's money was gaining pressure. Towards Hong Kong, China was trying to introduce the “Hong Kong National Security Law” that would strengthen social control over its head. In the long run China could be induced into squeezing itself in a way that could cause Western money to escape from Hong Kong
In contrast to political turmoil, Hong Kong's financial markets showed a surprising boom. Hong Kong stocks continued to grow for five days until the 5th, hitting a high for the first time in three months. In the foreign exchange market, the buying of Hong Kong dollars had not stopped due to the listing of shares of Chinese game giant NetEas, and also the Kyoto Group (JD.com) for online shopping, and the Hong Kong currency authorities decided to intervene by selling Hong Kong dollars.
As more and more companies were starting to look for listings in Hong Kong as part of their “Return to China” because the Trump administration began to look tough on Chinese companies listed in the US, and this return trend was likely to continue. Mainland Chinese money also supported the brisk boom in the Hong Kong market. Since January, the total amount of Hong Kong shares bought from mainland China was HK$278.3 billion (about 3.9 trillion yen), which was higher than the full year of 2019.
Mainland China had strict capital regulations, and there were many restrictions on cross-border investment. Chinese companies had been promoting exchange of investment money with the world through Hong Kong which had a free market. The latest balance of investment money linking Hong Kong and China was 2.4 trillion dollars (about 260 trillion yen), an increase of 47% from the end of 2015.
The number of mainland companies using Hong Kong as a foothold for overseas expansion was increasing. The number of mainland companies that had integrated functions in Hong Kong had doubled in five years, reaching 216 in 2019. Mainland Chinese companies accounted for more than 70% of the listed companies on the Hong Kong Exchange on a market capitalization basis.
The amount of mutual transactions in which foreign investors invested in mainland stocks, and mainland investors invested in Hong Kong stocks via Hong Kong continued to rise. If Hong Kong collapsed, the flow of these funds could clog. The People's Bank of China (Central Bank) announced on April 4 that it "supports the development of Hong Kong as an international financial center." The real intention was to avoid the situation in which the Hong Kong market would be disrupted by the National Security Law.
However, there was growing concern among Hong Kong citizens about the collapse of the "One country, two systems". In May the Midland Immigration Consultancy which assisted matters on overseas migration received 800 consultations, 40 times more than the same month last year. Mr. Zheng Tianyin of the company said, "It seems that someone who think about migration as one of their options has made up their minds".
On May 28, when the policy for enacting the National Security Law was decided, the US dollar bills disappeared from the money exchange shops throughout the city. A number of people were letting go their Hong Kong dollar based on a speculation that the "Pegged system" that linked the movement of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar might be reviewed. Contrary to soaring in the spot market, the futures market, which forecasted the Hong Kong dollar two years ahead, fell below the pegged lower limit of USD 1 = HK$7.85 in late May. The Hong Kong government had $440 billion in foreign exchange reserves and was confident in maintaining the pegged system, but the existence of the United States could not be ignored.
Another option in the Trump administration's review on Hong Kong preferential treatment was the restriction on the exchange between US dollars and Hong Kong dollars. It had been called a “nuclear option” in the sense that its economic impact would be so great that it could not be actually used, but the anxiety remained. Toru Kurata, a professor at Rikkyo University, said, "Hong Kong is at the forefront of the Cold War due to the drastic changes in US policy toward China.”
Since China could not immediately liberalize its financial market (Associate Professor Zhuang Tailiang of the Chinese University of Hong Kong), as could be expected, China had to rely on the Hong Kong market to exchange money with the world. If Hong Kong went into a dysfunction, China could suffer a returning hit, and the world economy might not be left unharmed.
It is surprising
to know that mainland Chinese companies are accounting for more than 70% of the
listed companies on the Hong Kong Exchange on a market capitalization basis. It
seems that the confrontation now taking place over Hong Kong could be a huge gamble
for both China and the US, and that may affect the global economy in the long
run.
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