中國對科技投入万億也不會買得主導地位

Yahoo Finance on 26.5.2020 reported the following:

China’s Trillions Toward Tech Won’t Buy Dominance

Bloomberg Anjani Trivedi, Bloomberg Mon, May 25 6:00 AM GMT+8

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(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Big spending numbers are being thrown around in China, once again. This time, it’s trillions of yuan of fiscal stimulus on all things tech. The plans are bold and vague: China wants to bring technology into its mainstream infrastructure buildout and, in the process, heave the economy out of a gloom due only partly to the coronavirus. But will this move the needle for China to achieve some kind of technological dominance? Or increase jobs, or boost favored companies? Not as much as the numbers would suggest, and possibly very little. A country covered in 5G networks makes for a tech-savvy society; it's less clear that this money will boost industrial innovation or even productivity.

 Over the next few years, national-level plans include injecting more than 2.5 trillion yuan ($352 billion) into over 550,000 base stations, a key building block of 5G infrastructure, and 500 billion yuan into ultra-high-voltage power. Local governments have ideas, too. They want data centers and cloud computing projects, among other things. Jiangsu is looking for faster connectivity for smart medical care, smart transportation and, well, all things smart.  Shanghai’s City Action Plan alone is supposed to total 270 billon yuan. By 2025, China will have invested an estimated $1.4 trillion. According to a work report released Friday in conjunction with the start of the National People’s Congress, the government plans to prioritize “new infrastructure and new urbanization initiatives” to boost consumption and growth. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts have said that new infrastructure sectors could total 2 trillion yuan ($281 billion) this year, and twice that in 2021. Funding is being secured through special bonds and big banks. The Shanghai provincial administration, for instance, plans to get more than 40% of its needs from capital markets, and the rest from central government funds and special loans. Thousands of funds have been set up in various industries since 2018, and some goals were set forth in previous plans.

 Policymakers are aggressively driving the fiscal stimulus narrative through this new infrastructure lens. Building big things is a tried and true fallback in China, from the nation’s own road-and-rail networks to its most important soft-power foreign policy, the belt-and-road initiative to connect the globe in a physical network for trade. It’s less obvious that this will work for technology. The reality is that the central-government approved projects add up to only around 10% of infrastructure spending and 3% of total fixed asset investment. The plans lack the focus or evidence of expertise to show quite how China would achieve technological dominance. Thousands more charging stations for electric cars won’t change the fact that the country has been unable to produce a top-of-the-line electric vehicle, and demand for what’s on offer has tanked without subsidies.

 With their revenues barely growing, China’s telecom giants seem reluctant to allocate capital expenditures toward the bold 5G vision. China Mobile Ltd. Chairman Yang Jie said on a March earnings call that capex won’t be expanding much despite the company being at the outset of a three-year peak period for 5G investments. Analysts had expected it to grow by more than 20%, compared to the actual 8.4%. Laying this new foundation for the economy, which includes incorporating artificial intelligence into rail transit and utilities, requires time, not just pledged capital. It’s hard to see the returns any time soon, compared to investments on old infrastructure. These projects are less labor intensive, so there’s no corresponding whack at the post-virus jobless rate that would help demand. State-led firms that could boast big profits from sales of cement and machinery on the back of building projects, for instance, can’t reap money as visibly from being more connected. Spending the old way isn’t paying off like it used to, either. Sectors such as automobiles and materials, big beneficiaries of subsidies and state funding, have seen returns on invested capital fall. The massive push over the years gave China the Shanghai maglev and a vast network of trains and roads. But much debt remains and several of those projects still don’t make money. Add in balance-sheet pressures and spending constraints, and every yuan of credit becomes less effective.

There’s also expertise to consider. Technological dominance may require research more than 5G poles. China’s problem with wide-scale innovation remains the same as it has been for years: It always comes from the top down. Beijing has determined and shaped who the players will be. Good examples are the 2006 innovative society plan and Made in China 2025, published in 2015, that intended to transform industries and manufacturing, and have had mixed results.

China is unlikely to get the boost from tech spending that it needs to solve present-day problems, especially in the flux of the post-Covid-19 era. Ultimately, the country will just fall back on what it knows best: property, cars, roads and industrial parks. The economy is still run by construction, real estate and manufacturing. Investors should think again before bringing in anything but caution.

Translation

彭博（Bloomberg Opinion）- 再一次，中國出現大筆支出數字。這是對萬物技術的數万億元人民幣的財政刺激。這些計劃是大膽而模糊的：中國希望將技術納入其主流基礎設施建設中，並在此過程中使經濟擺脫暗淡的局面，其中僅一部分歸因于冠狀病毒，但僅於這就將可為中國實現某種目標提供動力,令技術上達至優勢？或增加工作機會，或提振受青睞的公司？效果將没可能有數字所指示的那樣多，而且可能很少。一個覆蓋著5G網絡的國家有助於建立精通技術的社會；較不清楚的是這筆錢將能否促進工業創新乃至生產力。

在接下來的幾年中，國家級計劃包括向超過55萬個基站注入超過2.5萬億元人民幣（合3,520億美元），5G基站基礎設施的重要組成部分, 以及向超高壓電源注入人民幣5,000億元。地方政府也有想法。他們希望有數據中心和雲計算項目及其他。江蘇正在尋求更快的連接性，以實現智能醫療，智能交通以及所有智能事物。僅上海市的《城市行動計劃》就應該需要270億元人民幣。到2025年，中國將投資約1. 4萬億美元。根據周五與全國人民代表大會開始同時發布的工作報告，政府計劃優先考慮 “新基礎設施和新城市化計劃” ，以促進消費和增長。高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的分析師表示，今年新的基礎設施部門的總規模可能達到2萬億元人民幣（合2,810億美元），而到2021年將多一倍。資金通過特殊債券和大型銀行獲得擔保。例如，上海市政府計劃從資本市場獲取40％以上的需求，其餘的則從中央政府的資金和特別貸款中獲取。自2018年以來，已在各個行業設立了數千筆資金，並且先為前的計劃設定了一些目標。

 政策制定者正在透過新的基礎架構視野, 積極推動財政刺激措施的論證。在中國建設大型企業是一個久經考驗的真正後備方案, 從中國自己的公路和鐵路網絡, 到最重要的軟實力外交政策，即在世界範圍內將全球連接起來的 “一帶一路” 倡議。這是否將適用於技術還是不太明顯。現實情況是，中央政府批准的項目僅占基礎設施支出的10％，佔固定資產投資總額的3％。這些計劃缺乏焦点, 或專門知識的證據去充分展示中國將如何達至技術主導地位。擁有數以千計的電動汽車充電站不會改變這個國家無法生產出頂級電動汽車的事實。在沒有補貼的情況下, 所提供產品的需求会急劇下降。

 由於收入幾乎沒有增長，中國的電信巨頭似乎不願為大膽的5G願景分配資本支出。中國移動有限公司董事長楊潔在3月份的財報電話會議上表示，儘管該公司正處於5G投資三年高峰期的開端，但資本支出不會有太大增加。分析師此前預計該數字將有20％以上增長，而實際數字為8.4％。奠定這一新的經濟基礎（包括將人工智能納入鐵路運輸和公用事業中）不僅需要保證資金, 亦需要時間。與對舊基礎架構的投資相比，很難在短期內看到回報。這些項目的勞動強度較低，因此沒有相應的在病毒後會幫助滿足失業率需求。例如，可以在建築項目的支持下, 從水泥和機械銷售中獲利可觀的國有企業，但無法從更緊密的聯繫中獲得明顯的收益。用像過去的花錢方法, 可能沒有獲得像過去那樣回報。汽車和材料等行業，補貼的大受益者和國家資金，已經看到投資資本回報率下降。多年來的大力推動使中國獲得了上海的磁懸浮列車以及龐大的火車和公路網絡。但有很多債務是仍然存在，其中一些項目仍然無法賺錢。加上資產負債表的壓力和支出限制，每一元信貸的效力就會降低。

 還需要考慮專業知識。技術上的主導地位可能需要研究領域超過5G的柱子。中國在大規模創新方面的問題多年來一樣仍然存在：它始終是自上而下的。北京已經確定並塑造了参與者的身份。很好的例子就是2006年創新社會計劃和2015年發布的《中國製造2025》，該計劃旨在改變工業和製造業，成績是好壞參半。

 中國不太可能從技術支出中獲得解決當今問題所需的動力，尤其是在後Covid-19的動蕩時代。 最終，該國將只能依靠它自己最了解的東西：房地產，汽車，道路和工業園區。 經濟仍以建築，房地產和製造業為主導。 投資者應再三考慮，一切都要謹慎。

              So, China will invest a lot of money to ensure its global 5G leadership. China’s policy decision over wide-scale innovation remains the same as it has been for years: It always comes from the top. Let’s wait and see how 5G will affect China.