中國市場擔憂3800億美元的資金短缺

Yahoo Finance  on 30.5.2020 reported the following:

China Markets Show Anxiety Over Looming $380 Billion Funding Gap

Bloomberg Bloomberg News,Bloomberg Fri, May 29 9:30 AM GMT+8

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 (Bloomberg) -- A looming liquidity shortage is challenging China’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low amid the economic fallout from the global pandemic.

 At least 2.7 trillion yuan ($380 billion) of cash will evaporate from the nation’s financial system next month as short-term bank debt and policy loans mature, according Bloomberg calculations. That puts pressure on the central bank to add to recent easing measures without fueling bubbles, and may otherwise accelerate a slide in government debt. The central bank on Friday said it would inject 300 billion yuan into the banking system using short-term instruments, adding to similar moves earlier in the week.

 The prospect of tighter liquidity is already adding stress to the money market. The overnight repurchase rate -- an indicator for interbank borrowing costs -- almost tripled over the past two weeks, while the seven-day tenor almost doubled during the period. The yield on 10-year government bonds climbed 12 basis points to 2.7% this week.

 Chinese businesses face growing uncertainty both domestically and abroad due to the global economic shutdown as well as escalating tensions with the U.S. While Chinese authorities have cut policy rates multiple times this year, they’ve avoided the large-scale stimulus seen in other major economies to avoid aggravating the country’s massive debt problem.

 “The second half of June will be very difficult for banks, which will face more volatile, unpredictable and higher borrowing costs,” said Xing Zhaopeng, a market economist at ANZ Bank China Co. “Beijing will likely cut the reserve-requirement ratio or the rate on medium-term policy loans as soon as next week.”

Here’s a look at the factors that will drain cash in June:

 Some 740 billion yuan of China’s medium-term lending facility will come due, with 500 billion yuan maturing on June 8 and another 240 billion yuan on June 19^th.Nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit -- a kind of short-term bank debt -- will mature in June. Lenders will buy 100 billion yuan of notes sold by the central government and another 500 billion yuan issued by local authorities on a net basis in June according to Citic Securities Co. -- and will need to set aside cash to do so. Banks will hoard cash to meet the demand for regulatory checks by the end of June. Banks will need money to buy special government bonds, the auction date and amount of which is currently unknown.

In a government work report delivered last week, the Chinese government abandoned its decades-long practice of setting an annual target for economic growth and widened its targeted budget deficit it to more than 3.6% of gross domestic product.

 The People’s Bank of China is likely to inject liquidity via further reserve-ratio cuts “by as much as 100 basis points over the next couple of weeks,” according to Nomura International Ltd. That would be the nation’s third such reduction this year, following a broad cut in January and a targeted one in March.

 “Due to the liquidity pressures, short-end government yield will likely increase while the room for back-end rates to rise is relatively limited,” Tianfeng Securities Co. analysts led by Sun Binbin wrote in a note. The PBOC will likely reduce the reserve-requirement ratio to ensure ample cash supply, they added.

 Translation

（彭博社）-迫在眉睫的流動性短缺正在挑戰中國在全球大流行帶來的經濟影響下保持較低借貸成本的努力。

根據彭博社的計算，在下個月，隨著短期銀行債務和政策性貸款的到期，至少有2.7萬億元人民幣（3,800億美元）的現金將從國家金融體系中蒸發掉。這給央行施加了壓力，要求其在不加劇泡沫的情況下增加近期的寬鬆措施，否則可能加速政府債務的下滑。央行週五表示，將使用短期工具向銀行系統注資3000億元人民幣，延續在本週早些時候的類似舉措。

 趨緊的流動性前景已經給貨幣市場增加了壓力。隔夜回購利率（作為銀行間借貸成本的指標）在過去兩周中幾乎翻了三倍，而在此期間7天的期限 [即匯票或本票到期之前必須經過的時間] 幾乎翻了一番。本週10年期政府債券收益率攀升12個基點，至2.7％。

 由於全球經濟停滯以及與美國的緊張關係加劇，中國企業在國內外面臨越來越大的不確定性。儘管中國當局今年多次降息，但他們避免推行像其他主要經濟體的大規模刺激措施, 以避免加劇該國的巨額債務問題。

 澳新銀行中國有限公司市場經濟學家邢兆鵬說：“ 6月下半月對於銀行來說將是非常困難的，因為它們將面臨更加動盪，不可預測的和更高的借貸成本”。“最快在下週開始, 北京很可能會降低準備金率或將中期政策性貸款利率下調。”

 以下是6月份將流失現金的因素：

 約有7400億元人民幣的中國中期貸款將到期，其中5000億元人民幣將於6月8日到期，另外2400億元人民幣將於6月19日到期。近1.4萬億元人民幣的可轉讓存款證 - 一種短期銀行債務, 將於6月到期 。 根據中信證券公司的數據，貸款人將在6月份購買1000億元中央政府出售的票據，及購買5,000億元人民幣由地方政府發行的淨額債券 - 貸款人需要預留現金來這樣做。銀行將在6月底之前積存現金以滿足監管檢查的需求 。 銀行將需要資金購買特殊政府債券，拍賣日期和金額目前未能知悉。

 在上週發表的政府工作報告中，中國政府放棄了已做了法長達數十年的設定年度經濟增長目標的做法，並將目標預算赤字擴大到國內生產總值（GDP）的3.6％以上。

 野村國際有限公司（Nomura International Ltd.）表示，中國人民銀行可能會通過進一步下調存款準備金率“在未來幾週內最多下調100個基點” 以注入流動性。這將是中國今年以來的第三次此類下調, ，延續在一月份進行了的大範圍削減，及三月份進行了有針對性的削減。

 以孫斌斌為首的天豐證券有限公司的分析師在一份報告中寫道:“由於流動性壓力，短期政府收益率可能會增加，而後端利率上升的空間相對有限”。他們補充說，中國人民銀行可能會降低準備金率，以確保充足的現金供應。

       So, China is in need of cash to meet the market demands.