Yahoo Finance on 4 May 2020 reported the following:
Fears Mount About Inflation Returning With a Vengeance
Bloomberg Catherine Bosley and Anchalee Worrachate,Bloomberg
19 hours ago
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Even a calamity of disease, death and
economic destruction afflicting the world all at once isn’t enough to suppress
the notion in some quarters that inflation could return with a vengeance.
The coronavirus crisis has killed hundreds of thousands,
incapacitated millions and affected the livelihoods of billions -- prompting
policy makers to fear a deflation spiral reminiscent of the Great Depression.
But economists including former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart, and
investors such as BNP Paribas Asset Management, are asking if a different
phenomenon lurks in the wreckage of global growth.
Such contrarians wonder if an environment of ultra-loose
monetary and fiscal easing, commodity shortages, frayed supply chains and
braking globalization might be fertile ground for surging consumer prices.
Reinforcing that shift, monetary authorities could face pressure to keep
interest rates low, capping the cost of servicing ballooned government debt
while allowing inflation to erode it too.
Even some traditionally deflation-wary thinkers have begun
pondering that outcome. Former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist
Olivier Blanchard recently wrote that high inflation is “unlikely but not
impossible,” a sentiment echoed by former European Central Bank policy maker
Peter Praet.
“I wouldn’t say that it’s a given that we’re going to be in
a longer-term inflationary environment,” said Karen Ward, chief market
strategist EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But I wouldn’t say it’s going to
be a negligible probability either.”
A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central
bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to
achieve that. But such a prospect is far from their minds at present as they
try to help economies facing eye-watering increases in unemployment. Almost
half of the world’s workforce is in danger of losing livelihoods from the
crisis, according to the International Labour Organisation.
“The deflationary shock is dominating, that’s absolutely
clear,” Praet said in an interview. “There’s a collapse of demand.”
Markets reflect that
view, in tune with the oil slump and the prevailing perspective of weak prices
sapped by adverse demographics, new technologies and globalization. Inflation
expectations, as proxied by five-year, five-year forward swap rates, are near
record lows in the U.S. and Europe. The U.K. 10-year breakeven rate is down
nearly three quarters of a point below last year’s peak.
Some investors see things differently. BNP Paribas Asset
Management, which oversees more than $450 billion, has started building an
overweight position in commodities for the first time in four years, while
going underweight bonds. Ardea Investment Management, a Sydney-based hedge
fund, said it “materially” added inflation exposure from late March after the
collapse in market expectations of price growth.
“In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is
definitely one of them,” said Gopi Karunakaran, a money manager at Ardea.
That narrative
diverges from another argument over the years -- for example from Germany’s
Bundesbank -- that underlying conditions in some economies have long supported
a pickup in prices.
One strand emphasizes the synchronized stimulus -- with
monetary easing supercharged by fiscal largess -- as opposed to the asymmetric
response during the financial crisis, when central banks cut rates and started
quantitative easing, but governments reined in budgets.
(to be continued)
Translation
即使是一場疾病,
死亡和經濟破壞一起席捲了全世界的災難，還不足以壓制一些人的觀點認為貨膨脹可能會以報復的形式回歸。
冠狀病毒危機已經殺死了成千上萬的人，使數百萬喪失了能力，並影響了數十億人的生計，這促使決策者們擔心螺旋式上升通縮，就像大蕭條一樣。但是，包括前英格蘭銀行官員查爾斯·古德哈特（Charles
Goodhart）在內的經濟學家以及法國巴黎銀行資產管理公司（BNP
Paribas Asset Management）等投資者，都在問是否全球增長難攤子中潛伏著另一種現象。
這些反主流人士懷疑，超寬鬆的貨幣和財政寬鬆，大宗商品短缺，供應鏈磨損以及遏制全球化的環境是否可能成為消費價格飆升的沃土。加強這種轉變 的是 - 金融當局可能面臨需要保持低利率的壓力，限制服務成本導致政府債務膨脹，同時也用通貨膨脹去減退它。
即使是一些在傳統上警惕通縮的思想家也已經開始思考這一結果。前國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家奧利維爾·布蘭查德（Olivier
Blanchard）最近寫道，高通脹“不太可能但並非沒有可能”，這亦反映前歐洲央行政策制定者彼得·普拉特（Peter
Praet）的觀點。
摩根大通資產管理EMEA區首席市場策略師Karen
Ward說：“我不會說長期通脹環境是一個定數。”
“但是我也不會說可能性將是微不足道。”
央行行長們可能會歡迎有限量的通脹,
他們多年來為刺激通脹而花費數万億美元。但是，目前這種前景還遙遙無,
現在他們試圖幫助面臨失業率驚人增長的經濟體。根據國際勞工組織（International
Labour Organisation）稱，全球近一半的勞動力面臨著因危機而失去生計的險況。
普雷特在接受采訪時說：“通縮衝擊占主導地位，這是絕對清楚的。”
“需求退潰了。”
市場反映了這種觀點，亦與另一個普遍觀點一致 -- 價格受到石油暴跌,
不利的人口數據,
新技術和全球化影響而疲軟。通貨膨脹的預期,
用五年期代表，五年期遠期掉期利率接近美國和歐洲的紀錄低點。英國10年的收支平衡率比去年的峰值低了近四分之三。
一些投資者持有不同的看法。負責管理逾4,500億美元的法國巴黎銀行資產管理公司四年來首次開始建立超重商品地位，同時減持債券。總部位於悉尼的對沖基金Ardea
Investment Management表示，由於市場對價格增長的預期下降，從3月下旬開始“實質性”增加了通脹風險。
在Ardea
Investment Management的資金經理Gopi
Karunakaran表示：“就沒有被關注的尾翼風險而言，通脹絕對是其中之一。”
多年來，這種說法與另一種說法背離，例如德國聯邦銀行（Bundesbank）的說法，即某些經濟體的基本條件長期以來一直支撐著價格上漲。
有一線強調的是同步刺激政策 - 以財政寬鬆政策助長貨幣寬鬆政策 - 這與金融危機期間的不對稱反應相反 -- 當中央銀行降低利率並開始量化寬鬆政策,
政府收緊預算。
(未完待續)
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