(Continue)
Yahoo Finance on 4 May 2020 reported the following:
Fears Mount About Inflation Returning With a Vengeance
“What we are doing is creating a policy framework that has
an inflation bias in it, which is the first time we’ve had that in
generations,” said Dario Perkins, chief European economist at TS Lombard in
London and a former U.K. Treasury official. “The policy response is a war-time
policy response.”
That conflict theme is one that Goodhart finds apt. In a
March 27 article with Manoj Pradhan, founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics,
he wrote that commodity costs will rebound with an economic recovery after
lockdowns are lifted and stimulus takes effect. Inflation could exceed 5% in
2021, and perhaps even reach 10% -- outcomes resembling the aftermaths of World
Wars I and II.
“The
monetary and fiscal expansion is aimed at, and will succeed at, putting money
in the hands of people,” Goodhart, a BOE rate setter from 1997 until 2000, said
in an interview. “There will be some degree of pent-up demand.”
Goods disruptions caused by the virus
-- for example with Brazilian farmers unable to harvest coffee beans -- might
also linger. Colin Harte, a multi-asset portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset
Management, warns that the supply side “could be more damaged than we
realized.”
The further consequences of a potential unwinding of
globalization, and a renewed focus on local production, builds on that
narrative.
“In the
latter stages of the recovery, amid continued de-globalization in goods trade
and less elastic global supply, fiscal policies may begin to stoke inflation,”
Berenberg Senior Economist Kallum Pickering said.
Some economic data might already point to price pressures.
U.S. money supply is surging, and Tim Congdon, a longtime watcher of such data,
anticipates it will see its largest increase in peacetime this year -- followed
by an “inflationary boom.”
For some analysts however, the
prospect of inflation is seriously remote in a world where unemployment is
going through the roof.
“It is naïve to think everyone is
going to get their jobs back when this pandemic virus goes away,” said Chris
Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank NA. “Massive job losses
mean price declines for many goods are on the way.”
For Goodhart’s thesis of
“double-digit” inflation to unfold, Perkins reckons authorities would need to
succeed relatively quickly in limiting deaths and shoring up growth, which
isn’t a given. He isn’t worried.
Blanchard, in an
April 24 article for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also
sees a far greater probability of low inflation. But a combination of swelling
public debt, a jump in real interest rates, and deliberately loose monetary
policy to aid government financing, could produce a different outcome.
“It would be a dream scenario for politicians that at some
point inflation goes up,” Praet said. “It’s not impossible. But I think the
structural consequences of this shock go well beyond the simple narrative of a
normalization, once we have a vaccine.”
Translation
倫敦TS
Lombard首席歐洲經濟學家，前英國財政部官員達里奧·帕金斯（Dario
Perkins）表示：“我們正在做的是建立一個有通貨膨脹偏向的政策框架，世代以來這是我們第一次這樣做”; “這政策回應是一種戰時政策回應。”
古德哈特感到那以衝突作主調恰當。他在3月27日與Talking
Heads Macroeconomics創始人Manoj
Pradhan一起寫的的文章中寫道，在解除封鎖及刺激措施生效之後，大宗商品成本將隨著經濟復甦而反彈。
2021年的通貨膨脹率可能超過5％，甚至可能達到10％，其結果類似於第一次世界大戰和第二次世界大戰的戦後發展。
英國央行利率從1997年至2000年的制定者古德哈特（Goodhart）表示：“貨幣和財政擴張旨在,
並且將成功地將金錢交到人民手中。” “但需求會在一定程度上被壓制下來。”
由病毒引起的商品中斷（例如巴西農民無法收割咖啡豆）也可能會持續存在。法國巴黎銀行資產管理公司（BNP
Paribas Asset Management）的多類別資產投資組合經理科林·哈特（Colin
Harte）警告說，供應方面的損害“可能比我們意識到的還要嚴重。”
在這種敘述的基礎上,
可以会重新關注全球化的潛在解散的延續後果,
以及對本地生產的重新關注。
貝倫貝格高級經濟學家卡倫·皮克林（Kallum
Pickering）表示：“在復甦的後期，由於商品貿易的持續去全球化和全球供應的彈性減弱，財政政策可能開始引發通貨膨脹。”
一些經濟數據可能已經指向價格壓力。美國貨幣供應量激增，長期關注此類數據的蒂姆·康登（Tim
Congdon）預計，今年將出現在和平時期的最大增長 - 隨後是“通貨膨脹熱潮”。
但是，對於一些分析家來說，在失業率不斷攀升的世界中，通貨膨脹發生的前景非常不大。
MUFG Union Bank NA的首席財務經濟學家Chris
Rupkey說： “認為每個人在這種大流行性病毒消失後都會找回工作是天真的。”
“大量的工作損失意味著許多商品的價格正等待著下降。”
對於古德哈特提出的“兩位數”通貨膨脹的論點，珀金斯認為，它的出現需要當局相對迅速地及成功地限制死亡人數並支持增長，但這不似會發生。故他並不擔心。
布蘭查德（Blanchard）在4月24日給彼得森國際經濟研究所（Peterson
Institute for International Economics）的一篇文章中也認為，低通脹的可能性要大得多。但是，公共債務膨脹，實際利率上升以及故意放寬貨幣政策以幫助政府融資的綜合考慮，可能會產生一個不同的結果。
普拉特說：“對政客來說,通貨膨脹率在某個時候上升是一個理想的情況。”
“這並非不可能。但是我認為，一旦有了疫苗，這種衝擊的結構後果將遠遠超簡單的規範化敍述。”
My understanding
is that inflation would occur if total money supply is greater than the total goods
and service available. In theory, as more and more money are pumped into the
financial markets, there should be inflation. But now we have a situation that
unemployment has occurred in many places due to the new virus, for example
factories were closed due to city knock-down, and international air traveling
are restricted. So there is a drop in demand (in a way demand is suppressed) and that
would create a deflationary effect. I think in the formula of supply and demand, we could add a
factor: the actual act to do purchasing. I am wondering what will happen if the
new money that comes under the ultra-loose monetary and fiscal easing policy
only end up into the hands of big corporations and not to the citizens to do purchases.
沒有留言:
張貼留言