拆解 - 香港現金收緊的背後是什麼？

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

Explainer-What's behind Hong Kong's tightening cash conditions?

Thu, November 3, 2022 at 3:33 p.m.

By Georgina Lee

HONG KONG (Reuters) - A weak Hong Kong dollar and capital outflows have pushed the city's interbank rates to 14-year highs and drained cash levels to their lowest in two years, sparking investor worries about Hong Kong's cherished currency peg and its economic health.

Below are some details on the complex policy framework and recent developments surrounding the tight liquidity:

WHY IS HONG KONG ON INVESTORS' RADAR?

Hong Kong's aggregate balance, a gauge of cash levels in the banking system, has been declining rapidly since May and is about to drop below HK$100 billion ($12.74 billion) for the first time in two years.

The decline in the aggregate balance has come alongside a drop in the Hong Kong dollar to the weak end of its trading band, driven by aggressive U.S. monetary tightening, capital outflows and intervention by the defacto central bank - the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).

That has tightened cash in the economy and driven the one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offer Rate (HIBOR) to a 14-year high.

WHY ARE CASH CONDITIONS SO TIGHT?

A dearth of initial public offerings this year on Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing's (HKEX) markets has dampened investor demand for Hong Kong dollars. Total IPO funds raised on the exchange plunged 74% year-on-year to HK$73.2 billion ($9.33 billion) for the first nine months this year, HKEX data shows.

There has also been an outflow of foreign investment from Hong Kong equities, funds and bonds. Their combined balance in Hong Kong's international investment position, which is the external balance sheet, dropped by 3% to HK$3.99 trillion as of June compared with the end of 2021, official data shows.

Hong Kong dollar interbank liquidity has tightened accordingly. The aggregate balance, a key measure of the interbank cash balance, has also been depleted by 40 rounds of currency intervention by the HKMA this year.

HOW ARE HONG KONG INTEREST RATES DETERMINED?

Under Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged in a tight band between 7.75 and 7.85 to the U.S. dollar, and the HKMA is committed to intervene to maintain the band.

As outflows from Hong Kong picked up, the HKMA has been forced to buy the local dollar and sell U.S. dollars to prevent it from weakening past 7.85.

HKMA's buying of Hong Kong dollars shrank the aggregate balance from HK$233.49 billion in June to HK$100.03 bln on Thursday, resulting in higher Hibor rates.

The overnight Hibor, which reflects financial institutions' demand for cash, spiked to 3.028% on Oct 31, the highest in nearly three years. Hibor is influenced mainly by capital flows in and out of Hong Kong, as the HKMA does not set interest rates.

IS THE FALL IN BANKING SYSTEM LIQUIDITY A CAUSE FOR CONCERN?

While foreign exchange reserves are down $33 bln since May, they remain ample at $419.2 billion. Also, with fiscal buffers in the form of exchange bills, the HKMA can fend off any notion of pressure on the currency peg.

Moreover, Hong Kong's monetary Base, at HK$1.9 trillion, is fully backed by U.S. dollar assets.

But home owners with mortgages will face larger interest payments as Hibor, which is the benchmark that banks use, rises. The HKMA said cases of negative equity in Hong Kong's residential mortgage loans registered a near ninefold increase in the third quarter from the prior quarter.

HOW FAR WILL HKMA LET THE AGGREGATE BALANCE FALL?

The last time the aggregate balance fell below HK$100 billion was in June 2020, and before that during the last U.S. rate-hike cycle from 2017 to 2019, when the aggregate balance hit HK$54 billion.

The impact on the HK dollar peg had been muted, the HKMA said.

Even if the aggregate balance were to drop to zero, the Linked Exchange Rate System will not be affected as HKMA can mobilise its foreign exchange reserves to support the peg.

Translation

香港（路透社） - 港元疲軟和資本外流已將香港銀行同業拆借利率推高至 14 年高位，並使現金水平降至兩年來的最低水平，引發投資者對香港珍視的貨幣掛鉤及其經濟健康狀況的擔憂。

以下是有關複雜政策框架的一些細節,以及圍繞流動性緊張的近期發展：

為什麼香港是投資者的關注焦點？

衡量銀行體系現金水平的香港總餘額自 5 月以來一直在迅速下降，並將在兩年內首次跌破 1,000 億港元（127.4 億美元）。

由於美國積極收緊貨幣政策、資本外流以及實質上的中央銀行 - 香港金融管理局（金管局）的干預，導致總餘額下降的同時, 港元跌至掛鉤交易區間的弱端.

這導致經濟体系統中的現金收緊，並將 1 個月香港銀行同業拆借利率 (HIBOR) 推至 14 年高位。

為什麼現金條件如此緊張？

今年香港交易及結算所 (HKEX) 市場缺乏首次公開募股，削弱了投資者對港元的需求。香港交易所數據顯示，今年前九個月，在交易所籌集的 IPO 資金總額同比下降 74% 至 732 億港元（合 93.3 億美元）。

香港股票、基金和債券也出現了外國投資的外流。官方數據顯示，截至 6 月，與 2021 年底相比，他們在香港國際投資頭寸（即外部資產負債表）中的綜合餘額下降 3% 至 3.99 萬億港元。

港元銀行同業流動性相應地收緊。總計的餘額, 作為衡量銀行同業的現金關鍵指標，也因今年金管局進行了 40 輪貨幣干預，已被消耗殆盡。

香港利率是如何釐定？

在香港的聯繫匯率制度下，港元與美元的匯率在 7.75 至 7.85 的窄幅區間內掛鉤，金管局承諾會介入以維持該區間。

隨著資金自香港流出增加，金管局被迫買入港元並賣出美元，以防止其跌破 7.85。

金管局買入港元令總餘額由 6 月的 2,334.9 億港元縮減至週四的 1,000.3 億港元，導致 Hibor 利率上升。

反映金融機構對現金需求的隔夜 Hibor 在 10 月 31 日飆升至 3.028%，為近三年來的最高水平。 Hibor 主要受資本流入和流出香港的影響，因為金管局沒有設定利率。

銀行系統流動性下降是否引值得起關注？

儘管外匯儲備自 5 月以來減少了 330 億美元，但仍保持在 4192 億美元的充足水平。此外，憑藉匯票形式的財政緩衝，金管局可以抵禦任何對貨幣掛鉤的壓力。

此外，1.9萬億港元的香港貨幣基礎完全由美元資產支持。

但隨著銀行使用的基準 Hibor 上升，有抵押貸款的屋主將面臨更大的利息支付。金管局表示，第三季香港住宅按揭貸款負資產個案較上季增加近九倍。

金管局會讓綜合餘額下降多少？

上一次總餘額跌破 1,000 億港元是在 2020 年 6 月，而在此之前是在 2017 年至 2019 年的美國上一次加息週期期間，總餘額達到 540 億港元。

金管局表示，對港元掛鉤的影響已經減弱。

即使總餘額降至零，聯繫匯率制度也不會受到影響，因為金管局可以調動其外匯儲備來支持掛鉤。

So, Hong Kong's aggregate balance, a gauge of cash levels in the banking system, has been declining rapidly since May.  A weak Hong Kong dollar and capital outflows have pushed the city's interbank rates to 14-year highs, sparking investor worries about Hong Kong's cherished currency peg and its economic health. The good news is that under the present system, even if the aggregate balance were to drop to zero, the Linked Exchange Rate System will not be affected as Hong Kong can mobilise its foreign exchange reserves to support the peg.

Note:

The interest rate that banks lend to each other is known as interbank offered rate (IBOR). Hong Kong's interbank offered rate is referred to as HIBOR, London's interbank offered rate, called LIBORR, Shanghai interbank offered rate called SHIBOR. This interest rate will be lower than the interest rate that the bank lends to customers.

加拿大命令三家中國公司退出關鍵礦產交易

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Canada orders three Chinese firms to exit critical minerals deals

Thu, November 3, 2022 at 5:01 a.m.

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada's government ordered three Chinese firms on Wednesday to divest their investments in Canadian critical minerals companies on grounds of national security.

The three firms ordered to divest their investments are Sinomine (Hong Kong) Rare Metals Resources Co Ltd, Chengze Lithium International Ltd, also based in Hong Kong, and Zangge Mining Investment (Chengdu) Co Ltd.

The government ordered the divestiture after a "rigorous scrutiny" of foreign firms by Canada's national security and intelligence community, Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement.

Sinomine was asked sell its investment in Power Metals Corp, Chengze Lithium asked to divest itself of its investment in Lithium Chile Inc and Zangge Mining is required to exit from Ultra Lithium Inc, according to the statement.

"While Canada continues to welcome foreign direct investment, we will act decisively when investments threaten our national security and our critical minerals supply chains, both at home and abroad," Champagne said.

Last week, Ottawa said it must build a resilient critical minerals supply chain with like-minded partners, as it outlined rules meant to protect the country's critical minerals sectors from foreign state-owned companies.

"The federal government is determined to work with Canadian businesses to attract foreign direct investments from partners that share our interests and values," Champagne said.

Canada has large deposits of critical minerals like nickel and cobalt, which are essential for cleaner energy and other technologies. Demand for the minerals is projected to expand significantly in the coming decades.

Earlier this year, Canada, the United States, Britain and a few other countries established a new partnership aimed at securing the supply of critical minerals as global demand for them rises.

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa, Editing by Chris Reese and Sandra Maler)

Translation

渥太華（路透社）- 加拿大政府週三以國家安全為由下令三家中國公司撤出對加拿大關鍵礦產公司的投資。

被勒令撤資的三家公司分別是 Sinomine (Hong Kong) Rare Metals Resources Co Ltd、同樣位於香港的 Chengze Lithium International Ltd. 和藏格礦業投資（成都）有限公司。

工業部長 Francois-Philippe Champagne 在一份聲明中說，在加拿大國家安全和情報界對外國公司進行 “嚴格審查” 後，政府下令撤出。

根據聲明，Sinomine 被要求出售其對 Power Metals Corp 的投資，Chengze Lithium 被要求撤出其對 Lithium Chile Inc 的投資，而藏格礦業被要求退出 Ultra Lithium Inc.。

Champagne 說: “雖然加拿大繼續歡迎外國直接投資，但當投資威脅到我們的國家安全和我們在國內外的關鍵礦產供應鏈時，我們將採取果斷行動” 。

上週，在渥太華概述了旨在保護該國關鍵礦產部門免受外國國有公司侵害的規則時, 它表示必須與志同道合的合作夥伴建立一個有彈性的關鍵礦產供應鏈。

Champagne說: “聯邦政府決心與加拿大企業合作，吸引與我們有共同利益和價值觀的合作夥伴的外國直接投資” 。

加拿大擁有大量鎳和鈷等關鍵礦物儲量，這對清潔能源和其他技術至關重要。預計未來幾十年對礦物的需求將顯著擴大。

今年早些時候，加拿大、美國、英國和其他一些國家建立了新的合作夥伴關係，旨在隨著全球對關鍵礦產的需求增加，確保供應。

So, Canada's government has ordered three Chinese firms to divest their investments in Canadian critical minerals companies on grounds of national security. Probably China will retaliate this decision.

1 in 5 deaths aged between 20 and 49 due to overdrinking - US survey

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

２０～４９歳の死亡、５人に１人は飲みすぎが原因　米調査

2022.11.02 Wed posted at 12:47 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 米国で２０～４９歳で死亡した人のうち、推定５人に１人は飲みすぎが原因だったという調査結果が、１日の米医学誌ＪＡＭＡネットワーク・オープンに発表された。２０～６４歳の年齢層では、飲酒に関係する死亡は８人に１人だった。

論文の筆頭筆者で米疾病対策センター（ＣＤＣ）専門家のマリッサ・エッサー氏によると、州によって違いはあるものの、全国的に見ると飲酒が関係する死亡は予防できる死の筆頭だった。

研究チームは２０１５～１９年にかけての死者に関する全米と州ごとの統計を参照し、過剰な飲酒が部分的または全面的に関係する死亡について調べた。この中には自動車事故やアルコール中毒、肝臓病などによる死亡が含まれる。

今回の調査では、飲酒が全面的な原因だったとされる死者が過去１０年で増えていることも分かった。

エッサー氏によると、飲酒が関係している可能性がありながら、死亡と飲酒との関係が確認できないなどの理由で統計から除外したケースもあった。また、病死した人が、過去に過剰な飲酒をしていて断酒した経緯があるのかどうか判断できないケースもあった。

この調査についてボストン大学のデービッド・ジャーニガン教授は、アルコールが関係する死者は実際にはもっと多いはずだと指摘。「飲みすぎは米国の大問題だということが改めて示された」としている。

Translation

  (CNN) According to a study published on the 1st in the JAMA Network Open, an estimated 1 in 5 deaths in the United States between the ages of 20 and 49 were due to over drinking. In the age group between 20-64, 1 in 8 were alcohol-related deaths.

According to lead author Marissa Esser, an expert at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while there were variations from state to state, nationally, alcohol-related deaths top the list of preventable deaths.

The researchers looked at national as well as state-by-state statistics on deaths from 2015 to 2019 to see which deaths were partially or wholly related to excessive drinking. This included deaths from car accidents, alcohol poisoning and liver disease.

The study also found that the number of deaths attributed entirely to alcohol consumption had risen over the past decade.

Esser said that some cases were excluded from the statistics because they could not confirm the relationship between death and alcohol consumption, although they might have connection with alcohol consumption. In some cases, she was also unable to determine whether the person who died had a history of excessive drinking and then quitting.

Boston University professor David Jernigan said the actual number of alcohol-related deaths was much higher. He said, "It shows once again that excessive drinking is a big problem in America."

              So, excessive drinking is a big problem in the US. I heard that some health experts even said that alcohol drinking had no safety level, even a small amount could be harmful to your health.

9月外國人連續第8個月拋售中國債券；步伐加快

Recently Reuters on-line reported the following:

Foreigners offload Chinese bonds for 8th straight month in September; pace accelerates

By Reuters Staff

SHANGHAI, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Foreign investors quickened the pace at which they cut holdings of Chinese bonds in September, leading to the eighth consecutive month of outflows - and the longest streak of outflows on record - weighed by a weakening yuan and U.S. monetary tightening.

Foreign holdings of yuan-denominated bonds traded on China’s interbank market stood at 3.4 trillion yuan ($468.08 billion) at September-end, versus 3.48 trillion yuan a month earlier, the central bank’s Shanghai head office said late last week.

Such holdings fell 30 billion yuan on month in August.

Overseas institutional investors sold 61.6 [sic] yuan worth of interbank bonds last month, compared with 27.8 billion yuan in August, showed data from China Central Depository & Clearing Co.

“We do not expect any meaningful comeback of inflows yet, on compressed yield differentials, a subdued RMB (yuan) sentiment, and probably expectations for further increases in UST (U.S. Treasury) yields to be much less rapid than earlier in the cycle,” said rates strategist Frances Cheung at OCBC Bank.

The yield gap between China’s benchmark 10-year government bonds and their U.S. counterparts reached the widest in 15 years in September when the yuan , faced with intensifying depreciation pressure, hit lows last seen in global financial crisis of 2008.

“The unfavorable interest rate spreads between China and the U.S. remain and the broad USD continues to strengthen,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a client note.

“We expect CNY to depreciate further in the next few months and our 3-month forecast for USD/CNY is 7.4.”

Some traders and analysts also pointed to domestic economic slowdown as among factors weighing on bond flows. China’s economy rebounded in the third quarter at a pace faster than market watchers had expected, but a more robust revival in the longer term will likely be challenged by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a prolonged property slump and global recession risk.

Elsewhere in the region, foreigners turned net sellers of Asia ex-China bonds in September as concern mounted over a weaker growth outlook, slowing exports and U.S. tightening.

 ($1 = 7.2637 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Brenda Goh; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

Translation

上海，10 月 31 日（路透社） - 外國投資者在 9 月加快了減持中國債券的步伐，導致連續第八個月資金外流 - 也是有記錄以來最長的資金外流 - 受到人民幣走軟和美國貨幣收緊的拖累。

中國央行上海總部上週晚些時候表示，截至 9 月底，在中國銀行間市場交易的人民幣計價債券的外國持有量為 3.4 萬億元人民幣（4,680.8 億美元），而一個月前為 3.48 萬億元人民幣。

8月份以月計此類持倉量減少300億元。

中央國債登記結算公司數據顯示，上月境外機構投資者賣出616[億]元銀行間債券，8月為278億元。

華僑銀行利率策略師 Frances Cheung 表示: “我們預計資金流入不會出現任何有意義的回升，原因是收益率差異壓縮、人民幣人氣低迷，以及對 UST（美國國債）收益率進一步上升的速度, 預期可能遠低於早期的週期” 。

人民幣面臨不斷加劇的貶值壓力, 中國基準10年期國債與美國國債的收益率差距在9月份達到15年來最大，觸及2008年全球金融危機以來的低點。

高盛分析師在一份客戶報告中表示： “中美之間不利的利差依然存在，美元普遍走強。”

“我們預計未來幾個月人民幣將進一步貶值，我們對美元兌人民幣 3 個月的預測為 7.4。”

一些交易員和分析師還指出，國內經濟放緩是影響債券流動的因素之一。中國經濟在第三季度的反彈速度快於市場觀察人士的預期，但從長遠來看，更強勁的復蘇可能會受到持續的 COVID-19 限制、長期的房地產低迷和全球經濟衰退風險的挑戰。

在該地區的其他地方，由於對增長前景疲軟、出口放緩和美國收緊政策的擔憂加劇，9 月份外國人轉變成為亞洲（中國除外）債券的淨賣家。

So, foreign investors have been selling Chinese bonds as a result of a weakening yuan and U.S. monetary tightening. Some traders and analysts also point to China’s domestic economic slowdown as other factors. China’s economy is still likely be impacted by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a prolonged property slump and global recession risk.

新加坡從零售加密行業撤退 - 為競爭對手開路

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Singapore Retreat from Retail Crypto Sector Opens Way for Rivals

Suvashree Ghosh and Haslinda Amin

Fri, October 28, 2022 at 12:06 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- Asia may be heading for a reordering of sorts in cryptocurrency markets, with Hong Kong moving to legalize retail trading of digital tokens just as Singapore looks to impose fresh restrictions on consumers.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg Television, Singapore’s central bank chief Ravi Menon had a clear message for other financial centers looking to draw retail crypto trading away with more relaxed rules: We won’t stand in your way.

“We don’t set ourselves out to compete with other jurisdictions, especially on regulation,” said Menon, the managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore. “We have to do what is right for us, what is necessary to contain the risks. And the risks are primarily harm to retail investors.”

Hong Kong, having fallen behind Singapore in crypto in past years, is pivoting toward a friendlier regulatory regime as part of a recently stated goal of becoming a top crypto hub. Japan is taking steps to make it easier to list tokens, partially reversing a conservative stance that was blamed for driving crypto startups away. Australia is becoming a regional home for listings of exchange-traded products linked to digital assets.

Singapore’s evolving vision on the kind of regional digital-asset center it prefers to be is as much an indication of the perils of letting mom-and-pop investors dabble in volatile virtual coins as an opening for other jurisdictions to gain ground.

The city-state was buffeted by blowups amid this year’s crypto rout, such as at Three Arrows Capital hedge fund and crypto lender Hodlnaut. An index of top tokens is down 58% so far in 2022, leaving many investors nursing losses.

“I think our latest proposals would be among the strictest in the world with respect to retail access to cryptocurrencies,” Menon said. “And we think that’s necessary.”

He acknowledged that some retail-focused crypto companies might move to other jurisdictions, saying “we wish them good luck.”

Crucial Decisions

Both Singapore and Hong Kong are hosting financial-technology conferences next week -- events that will feature high-profile crypto executives like Binance’s founder Changpeng Zhao and FTX’s chief executive officer Sam Bankman-Fried. Busan, the coastal South Korean city that aspires to become a digital-asset hub, is wrapping up a three-day conference on Saturday.

Hong Kong and Singapore’s diverging approaches to retail crypto trading leave exchange executives facing some potentially crucial decisions. Coinbase Global Inc. and Crypto.com are among global exchange operators that this year secured Singapore permits. There are now only 16 permit holders out of nearly 200 applicants.

“Singapore is getting a bit uncommercial for crypto exchanges by being over cautious on retail participation,” said Adrian Przelozny, chief executive officer of Sydney-based Independent Reserve. “Any decision to choosing a jurisdiction to do business is guided by two principles -- if it will earn profit for me and do I trust that the rules won’t change in that jurisdiction. It is hard to have confidence to invest if rules keep changing.”

Independent Reserve last year received a Major Payment Institution License from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, allowing it to operate as a virtual asset service provider.

Retail Curbs

The MAS on Wednesday unveiled proposals to restrict retail participation in digital assets, including banning small investors from borrowing to fund coin purchases. The consultation paper from the central bank also proposed barring companies from using tokens deposited by retail investors for lending or staking to generate yield.

The proposed restrictions don’t apply to high-net-worth investors.

Menon said Singapore still wants to be a crypto hub, but one that promotes areas of digital assets with “use cases” and tokenization -- the process of using blockchain technology to securitize various assets.

“We accept that cryptocurrencies have a place in the larger digital ecosystem because they are the tokens native to the blockchain that powers much of this activity,” he said. “They need to have an expression in the formal financial sector.”

Translation

（彭博社） - 亞洲可能正在走向加密貨幣市場的重新排位，正當新加坡希望對數字代幣消費者施加新的限制，而香港則正在將數字代幣的零售交易合法化。

新加坡央行行長 Ravi Menon 在接受彭博電視台採訪時, 向其他希望以更寬鬆的規則吸引零售加密貨幣交易的金融中心傳達了一個明確的信息：我們不會妨礙你。

新加坡金融管理局董事總經理 Menon 說: “我們不打算與其他司法管轄區競爭，尤其是在監管方面”; “我們必須做適合我們的事情，做必要的事情來控制風險。風險主要是對散戶投資者的傷害。”

香港在過去幾年的加密貨幣領域落後於新加坡，正在轉向更友好的監管制度，這是最近宣布的成為頂級加密貨幣中心目標的一部分。日本正在採取措施讓代幣上市變得更容易，部分扭轉了保守的立場，這種立場被指責為將加密貨幣初創公司趕走。澳大利亞正在成為與數字資產相關的交易所交易產品上市的區域性所在地。

新加坡選擇成為某一類區域性數字資產中心的願景不斷變化，顯示了讓缺乏經驗的投資者去涉足不穩定的虛擬貨幣有風險，也顯示了新加坡在其他域領展有機會開展。

在今年的加密貨幣暴跌中，這個城市國家受到了衝擊，例如Three Arrows Capital對沖基金和加密貨幣貸方 Hodlnaut。到 2022 年為止，頂級代幣指數下跌了 58%，讓許多投資者蒙受損失。

Menon說: “我認為我們的最新提案將是世界上對加密貨幣零售最嚴格的提案之一”; “而且我們認為這是必要的。”

他承認，一些專注於零售的加密公司可能會搬到其他司法管轄區，並表示 “我們祝他們好運。”

關鍵決定

新加坡和香港都將在下週舉辦金融技術會議 - 這些活動將邀請Binance創始人Changpeng Zhao 和 FTX 首席執行官 Sam Bankman-Fried 等知名加密貨幣高管參加。渴望成為數字資產中心的韓國沿海城市釜山將於週六結束為期三天的會議。

香港和新加坡對零售加密交易的不同處理方向, 使交易所高管面臨一些潛在的關鍵決定。 Coinbase Global Inc. 和 Crypto.com 是今年獲得新加坡許可證的全球交易所運營商之一。現在近 200 名申請人中只有 16 名持證人。

總部位於悉尼的 Independent Reserve 首席執行官 Adrian Przelozny 表示： “由於對零售參與過於謹慎，新加坡對加密貨幣交易所有點非商業化”; “去任何選擇一個司法管轄區開展業務的決定都遵循兩個原則 - 如果它能為我賺取利潤，以及我是否相信該司法管轄區的規則不會改變。如果規則不斷變化，就很難有信心投資。”

Independent Reserve 去年從新加坡金融管理局獲得了主要支付機構許可證，允許其作為虛擬資產服務提供商去運營。

抑制小额客戶

新加坡金融管理局週三公佈了限制零售業參與數字資產的提議，包括禁止小投資者藉借貸以購買代幣。央行的諮詢文件還提議禁止公司使用散戶投資者存放的代幣進行借貸或賭押以產生收益。

擬議的限制不適用於高淨值投資者。

Menon 表示，新加坡仍然希望成為一個加密中心，但提倡 “用例” 和代幣化來促進數字資產領域 - 一個使用區塊鏈技術將各種資產證券化的過程。

他說: “我們接受加密貨幣在更大的數字生態系統中佔有一席之地，因為它們是原生於區塊鏈的代幣，為大部分活動提供動力”; “它們需要在正規金融領域中作出表達。”

              So, Asia may be heading for  changing cryptocurrency markets, with Hong Kong moving to legalize retail trading of digital tokens while Singapore looks to impose fresh restrictions on consumers.

Note:

1."Mom-and-pop" investors usually refers to inexperienced investors who minimally invest in the stock market. Despite limited capital commitments, mom-and-pop investors often count on significant returns on their trades, in order to supplement their income. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms)

2. The term high-net-worth individual  refers to a financial industry classification denoting an individual with liquid assets above a certain figure. People who fall into this category generally have at least $1 million in liquid financial assets. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms)

中國的習近平對曾經強大的共青團派進行了毀滅性的打擊

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China's Xi deals knockout blow to once-powerful Youth League faction

Wed, October 26, 2022 at 5:19 p.m.

By Martin Quin Pollard

BEIJING, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The three most glaring omissions from China's new Communist Party leadership share one common trait: all rose through its Youth League and were considered members of a once-powerful faction whose influence Xi Jinping has now effectively crushed.

Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Wang Yang, both 67 and young enough to be re-appointed to the elite seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, were left off even the wider Central Committee, as Xi installed loyalists in top party posts during the recent twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle.

Fellow vice premier and one-time high-flyer Hu Chunhua, who, at 59, had been seen by some party watchers as a candidate for premier and once even a possible future president, did not make it to the 24-man Politburo.

The omissions show Xi has succeeded in a years-long effort to eradicate the faction, analysts said.

"On Hu Chunhua, I think this has been Xi Jinping's main tactic of shutting down the youth league faction," said Victor Shih, an expert on elite politics in China and a professor at the University of California, San Diego.

"He has stifled the careers of quite a few cadres in that faction."

In a dramatic incident widely viewed as symbolic of the faction's demise, Xi's predecessor, Hu Jintao, who is 79 and a Youth League veteran, was unexpectedly escorted from the stage at Saturday's closing ceremony of the party congress.

Exactly what happened remains unclear, but state news agency Xinhua said in two English posts on Twitter that it was related to Hu's health. The social network is blocked in China.

"They are completely defeated," said Cheng Li, a specialist on the transformation of political leaders in China, referring to the sidelining of the Youth League faction.

"It means Xi can do many things he wants to, and opposing forces have got weaker," added Li, who is with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"It can be read as, he didn't want the Western-style balance of power and wanted to show more of the centralisation of his power."

As Xi kicks off his third leadership term with more power than any leader since Mao Zedong, he faces a mountain of problems, from a dismal economy to his own COVID-19 policy that has backed China into a corner, and souring ties with the West.

TRAINING GROUND

 The "faction" refers to officials in leadership roles in the Youth League, which recruits and trains some of China's brightest, mainly high school and university students, traditionally acting as a feeder organization for the party.

The Youth League's budget has been cut from nearly 700 million yuan ($96 million) in 2012, the year Xi assumed power, to about 260 million yuan in 2021, official data shows.

Membership has dropped to about 74 million over the same period from around 90 million.

China's Communist Party has about 97 million members.

"As a party-led organization, the CYL has lost its clout as the place for grooming leaders," said Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago.

"But it has already been working hard to adapt to the changing political circumstances," he said, adding that the Youth League had built a social media presence, appealing to nationalistic pride, and engaged in civic functions.

The Youth League has been active in attacking foreign brands accused of misbehaviour in China, such as false advertising.

Last year, Western journalists said they received death threats after its branch in the central province of Henan asked social media followers to report the whereabouts of a BBC reporter covering major floods there.

The Youth League did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

Its political image lost some sheen in 2012, when Ling Jihua, a top aide to Hu Jintao, tried to cover up the circumstances around the death of his son, killed while driving a Ferrari that crashed in Beijing.

Ling was later charged with corruption and jailed for life.

XI'S 'ZHIJIANG NEW ARMY'

Factions, cliques and power bases have existed, with varying levels of influence, since the party's founding a century ago.

They famously included the so-called "Shanghai Gang" of former leader Jiang Zemin, who is now 96.

Xi's faction, the so-called "Zhijiang New Army", was forged during his years as party chief of the eastern province of Zhejiang between 2002 and 2007.

John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Seoul's Yonsei University, said the new leadership reflects Xi's predominance.

"But history would remind us that no political system on earth has eradicated the existence of internal disagreement, rivalry, and power struggles," he said.

"It can take time, but after one particular faction is eliminated, another faction eventually emerges."

Translation

北京，10 月 26 日（路透社）- 中國共產黨新領導層最明顯的三個人事遺漏有一個共同特點：他們都是從共青團中崛起的，並被認為是曾經強大的派系的成員，現習近平現在已經有效地粉碎了其影響力。

67 歲的李克強總理和汪洋副總理都足夠年輕，可以再次被任命為精銳的七人政治局常委，甚至連更廣泛的中央委員會都被排除在外，因為習近平在最近十年兩次領導層改組, 任命忠誠者擔任黨的高層職務-。

59 歲的副總理胡春華、曾經被視為有能力的人物, 並曾被一些黨內觀察人士視為總理候選人，甚至一度可能成為未來的主席，未能進入 24 人的政治局。

分析人士說，這些遺漏表明習近平多年來剷除該派系的努力取得了成果。

中國精英政治專家、加州大學聖地亞哥分校教授Victor Shih說: “關於胡春華，我認為這是習近平關閉共青團派的主要策略” 。

“他扼殺了那個派係不少干部的事業。”

在一個被廣泛視為該派滅亡象徵的戲劇性事件中，習近平的前任、79歲的共青團老兵胡錦濤在周六的黨代會閉幕式上出人意料地被護送下台。

究竟發生了什麼仍不清楚，但官方通訊社新華社在推特上的兩篇英文帖子中表示，這與胡的健康有關。在中國社交網絡這被封鎖。

中國政治領導人轉型問題專家Cheng Li在談到團派的邊緣化時說: “他們完全被打敗了” 。

在華盛頓布魯金斯學會工作的Li補充道: “這意味著習近平可以做很多他想做的事情，而反對力量變得更弱了” 。

“這可以理解為，他不想要西方式的權力平衡，而是想表現出更多的權力集中。”

隨著習近平以比毛澤東以來任何一位領導人有更大的權力去開始他的第三個領導任期，他面臨著一大堆問題，從低迷的經濟到他自己的 COVID-19 政策將中國逼入絕境，以及與西方的關係惡化.

訓練場

“派” 是指在共青團中擔任領導職務的官員，該團招募和培養一些中國最聰明的人，主要是高中生和大學生，傳統上充當黨的支線組織。

官方數據顯示，共青團的預算已從習近平上台的 2012 年的近 7 億元人民幣（9600 萬美元）削減至 2021 年的約 2.6 億元人民幣。

同期，會員人數已從約 9,000 萬降至約 7,400 萬。

中國共產黨約有9,700萬黨員。

芝加哥大學政治學家 Dali Yang 說: “作為一個以黨為主導的組織，共青團已經失去了培養領導者的影響力” 。

他說: “但它已經在努力適應不斷變化的政治環境” ，並補充說，共青團已經建立了社交媒體形象，呼籲民族主義自豪感，並參與公民活動。

共青團一直在積極打擊被指控在中國存在不當行為的外國品牌，例如虛假廣告。

去年，西方記者表示，位於中部省份河南的共青團分部要求社交媒體追隨者,去報告一名曾報導當地大洪水的 BBC 記者的下落後，之後記者收到了死亡威脅。

共青團沒有立即回應週三的置評請求。

它的政治形像在 2012 年失去了一些光彩，當時胡錦濤的高級助手Ling Jihua試圖掩蓋其兒子在北京的法拉利車撞毀身亡的情況。

Ling後來被指控貪污並被判終身監禁。

習近平的 “浙江新軍”

自一個世紀前建黨以來，派系、集團和權力基地一直存在，影響程度各不相同。

其中著名的包括現年96歲的前領導人江澤民所謂的 “上海幫” 。

習的派系，即所謂的 “浙江新軍” ，是他在 2002 年至 2007 年擔任東部省份浙江省委書記期間打造的。

首爾延世大學中國研究教授 John Delury 表示，新領導層反映了習近平的主導地位。

他說: “但歷史會提醒我們，地球上沒有任何政治制度能夠根除內部分歧、競爭和權力鬥爭的存在” 。

“這可能需要時間，但在一個特定派係被淘汰後，另一個派系最終會出現。”

So, the Youth League faction has completely been defeated and displaced to the sideline. It means Xi can do many things he wants and has a free hand to lead China in dealing with internal troubles and challenges from the West. In China, the party’s and government’s ruling efficiency come first at all times. Different voices will be suppressed, as always.

Note:

1. Communist Youth League of China (中國共產主義青年團) also known as the Young Communist League of China or simply the Communist Youth League (CYL), is a youth movement of the People's Republic of China for youth between the ages of 14 and 28, run by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). (Wikipedia)

美聯儲正在損失數十億美元，報銷為支出提供資金的利潤

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Fed Is Losing Billions, Wiping Out Profits That Funded Spending

Enda Curran, Jana Randow and Jonnelle Marte

Tue, October 25, 2022 at 8:12 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- Profits and losses aren’t usually thought of as a consideration for central banks, but rapidly mounting red ink at the Federal Reserve and many peers risks becoming more than just an accounting oddity.

The bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years.

Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks park with them. That’s tipped the Fed into operating losses, creating a hole that may ultimately require the Treasury Department to fill via debt sales. The UK Treasury is already preparing to make up a loss at the Bank of England.

Britain’s move highlights a dramatic shift in countries including the US, where central banks are no longer significant contributors to government revenues. The US Treasury will see a “stunning swing,” going from receiving about $100 billion last year from the Fed to a potential annual loss rate of $80 billion by year-end, according to Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.

The accounting losses threaten to fuel criticism of the asset purchase programs undertaken to rescue markets and economies, most recently when Covid-19 shuttered large swathes of the global economy in 2020. Coinciding with the current outbreak in inflation, that could spur calls to rein in monetary policy makers’ independence, or limit what steps they can take in the next crisis.

“The problem with central bank losses are not the losses per se -- they can always be recapitalized -- but the political backlash central banks are likely to increasingly face,” said Jerome Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re, who previously worked at Switzerland’s central bank.

The following figures illustrate the scope of operating losses or mark-to-market balance-sheet losses now materializing:

Fed remittances owed to the US Treasury reached a negative $5.3 billion as of Oct. 19 -- a sharp contrast with the positive figures seen as recently as the end of August. A negative number amounts to an IOU that would be repaid via any future income.

The Reserve Bank of Australia posted an accounting loss of A$36.7 billion ($23 billion) for the 12 months through June, leaving it with a A$12.4 billion negative-equity position.

Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot, warned last month he expects cumulative losses of about 9 billion euro ($8.8 billion) for the coming years.

The Swiss National Bank reported a loss of 95.2 billion francs ($95 billion) for the first six months of the year as the value of its foreign-exchange holdings slumped -- the worst first-half performance since it was established in 1907.

While for a developing country, losses at the central bank can undermine confidence and contribute to a general exodus of capital, that sort of credibility challenge isn’t likely for a rich nation.

As Seth Carpenter, chief global economist for Morgan Stanley and a former US Treasury official put it: “The losses don’t have a material effect on their ability to conduct monetary policy in the near term.”

RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said in response to a question last month about the Australian central bank’s negative-equity position that “we don’t believe that we are impacted at all in our capacity to operate.” After all, “we can create money. That’s what we did when we bought the bonds,” she noted.

But there can still be consequences. Central banks had already become politically charged institutions after, by their own admission, they failed to anticipate and act quickly against budding inflation over the past year or more. Incurring losses adds another magnet for criticism.

ECB Implications

For the European Central Bank, the potential for mounting losses comes after years of purchases of government bonds conducted despite the reservations of conservative officials arguing they blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy.

With inflation running at five times the ECB’s target, pressure is mounting to dispose of the bond holdings -- a process called quantitative tightening that the ECB is currently preparing for even as the economic outlook darkens.

“Although there are no clear economic constraints to the central bank running losses, there is the possibility that these become more of a political constraint on the ECB,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists George Cole and Simon Freycenet said. Particularly in northern Europe, it “may fuel the discussion of quantitative tightening.”

President Christine Lagarde hasn’t given any indication that the ECB’s decision on QT will be driven by the prospect of incurring losses. She told lawmakers in Brussels last month that generating profits isn’t part of central banks’ task, insisting that fighting inflation remains policymakers’ “only purpose.”

BOJ, Fed

The Bank of Japan remains apart for now, not having raised interest rates and still imposing a negative rate on a portion of banks’ reserves. But things could change when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April, and his successor is confronted by historically high inflation.

As for the Fed, Republicans have in the past voiced opposition to its practice of paying interest on surplus bank reserves. Congress granted that authority back in 2008 to help the Fed control interest rates. With the Fed now incurring losses, and the Republicans potentially taking control of at least one chamber of Congress in the November midterm elections, the debate may resurface.

The Fed’s turnaround could be particularly notable. After paying as much as $100 billion to the Treasury in 2021, it could face losses of more than $80 billion on an annual basis if policymakers raise rates by 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December -- as markets anticipate -- estimates Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont.

Without the income from the Fed, the Treasury then needs to sell more debt to the public to fund government spending.

“This may be too arcane to hit the public’s radar, but a populist could spin the story in a way that would not reflect well on the Fed,” Stanley wrote in a note to clients this month.

Translation

(彭博社) - 盈虧通常不被認為是中央銀行的考慮因素，但美聯儲局和許多同行的赤字迅速增加，可能不僅僅是會計上的怪事。

由於高通脹和央行正在實施的激進加息引發的債券市場正在經歷一代人以來最嚴重的拋售。反過來，債券價格下跌意味著美聯儲和其他機構在近年來的救援行動中積累的大量資產的賬面損失。

加息還涉及中央銀行為商業銀行存放的準備金支付更多利息。這使美聯儲陷入經營虧損，造成了一個可能最終需要財政部通過發債來填補的漏洞。英國財政部已經準備彌補英格蘭銀行的損失。

英國的舉動突顯了包括美國在內的國家的巨大轉變，在這些國家，中央銀行不再是政府收入的重要貢獻者。根據 Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC 的數據，美國財政部將出現 “驚人的波動” ，從去年從美聯儲局約1,000 億美元收入，到年底可能達到 800 億美元的年度損失。

會計損失有可能引發對為拯救市場和經濟而採取的資產購買計劃的批評，最近一次是在 2020 年 Covid-19 關閉了全球經濟的大部分地區。與當前通貨膨脹的爆發相吻合，這可能會促使人們呼籲控制貨幣政策制定者的獨立性，或限制他們在下一次危機中可以採取的措施。

曾在瑞士中央銀行工作的瑞士再保險首席經濟學家 Jerome Haegeli 表示: “央行虧損的問題不在於損失本身 - 它們總是可以進行資本重組 -  而是央行可能會越來越多面臨政治反彈” 。

以下數字說明了目前正在實現的經營虧損, 或按市值計價的資產負債表虧損的範圍：

截至 10 月 19 日，美聯儲欠美國財政部的匯款為負 53 億美元，這與最近在 8 月底看到的正數據形成鮮明對比。負數相當於借據，將通過任何未來收入去償還。

澳大利亞儲備銀行公佈截至 6 月的 12 個月會計虧損 367 億澳元（合 230 億美元），其負資產頭寸為 124 億澳元。

荷蘭央行行長 Klaas Knot 上個月警告稱，他預計未來幾年累計虧損約 90 億歐元（88 億美元）。

瑞士國家銀行報告稱，今年前六個月虧損 952 億瑞士法郎（合 950 億美元），原因是其外匯持倉價值暴跌 - 這是自 1907 年成立以來上半年表現最差的一次。

雖然對於發展中國家而言，中央銀行的損失可能會削弱信心並導致資本普遍外流，但對於富裕國家而言，這種信譽挑戰不太可能。

正如摩根士丹利首席全球經濟學家、前美國財政部官員Seth Carpenter所說： “這些損失不會對他們在短期內實施貨幣政策的能力會產生重大影響。”

RBA 副行長 Michele Bullock 上個月在回答有關澳大利亞央行負資產頭寸的問題時表示， “我們認為我們的運營能力完全沒有受到影響。” 畢竟，她指出 “我們可以創造金錢。這就是我們在購買債券時所做的” 。

但後果仍有可能產生。中央銀行自己承認, 在過去一年或更長時間內, 在未能預見並迅速採取行動應對新興的通貨膨脹之後，它們已經成為具有政治色彩的機構。遭受損失增加了另一個受批評的引力。

歐洲央行的影響

對歐洲央行而言，儘管保守派官員對購買政府債券有保留, 認為這模糊了貨幣政策和財政政策之間的界限，在多年購買之後，可能會出現虧損的機會越來越大。

由於通脹率達到歐洲央行目標的五倍，出售所持債券的壓力越來越大 - 即使經濟前景黯淡，歐洲央行目前仍在為這一過程做準備。

高盛集團經濟學家 George Cole 和 Simon Freycenet 表示： “儘管央行的虧損沒有明顯的經濟上的限制，但有更多可能成為歐洲央行在政治上的限制” 。特別是在北歐，它 “可能會引發關於量化緊縮的討論” 。

行長拉加德並未顯示任何跡象表明歐洲央行對 QT (quantitative tightening) 的決定將受到可能蒙受損失的驅動。她上個月在布魯塞爾告訴立法者，創造利潤不是央行任務的一部分，堅稱對抗通脹仍然是政策制定者的 “唯一目的” 。

日本央行、美聯儲局

日本央行目前仍處於個別地行動，沒有提高利率，仍然對部分銀行的準備金實行負利率。但當黑田東彥行長於 4 月卸任時，情況可能會發生變化，而他的繼任者將面臨歷史高位的通脹。

至於美聯儲局，共和黨人過去曾表示反對其為盈餘銀行準備金去支付利息的做法。國會早在 2008 年就授予該權力，以幫助美聯儲控制利率。由於美聯儲現在蒙受損失，而共和黨可能在 11 月的中期選舉中至少會控制其中一個國會議院，這場辯論可能會重新浮現。

美聯儲局的回轉可能尤其引人注目。據估計，在 2021 年向財政部支付多達 1,000 億美元之後，如果政策制定者在 11 月和 12 月正如市場預期地分別加息 75 個基點和 50 個基點，Amherst Pierpont的首席經濟學家 Stephen Stanley 估計它每年可能面臨超過 800 億美元的損失。

如果沒有美聯儲局的收入，財政部就需要向公眾出售更多債務來為政府支出提供資金。

Stanley本月在給客戶的一份報告中寫道: “這可能太晦澀難懂了，無法引起公眾的注意，但民粹主義者可能會以扭編故事去負面地反映美聯儲局” 。

So, the bond market is enduring its worst selloff in a generation, triggered by high inflation and the aggressive interest-rate hikes that central banks are implementing. Falling bond prices, in turn, mean paper losses on the massive holdings that the Fed and others accumulated during their rescue efforts in recent years. Rate hikes also involve central banks paying out more interest on the reserves that commercial banks deposit with them. Without the income from the Fed, the Treasury then needs to sell more debt to the public to fund government spending. The decisions of central banks are becoming more political.