從東京到倫敦，債券投資人對財政紀律的擔憂令市場緊張不安

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

From Tokyo to London, bond investor fears over fiscal discipline leave markets on edge

Reuters - Yoruk Bahceli and Junko Fujita

Wed, September 3, 2025 at 2:39 a.m. PDT 4 min read

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -A degree of calm settled on the world's biggest bond markets on Wednesday, but concerns about the fiscal health of big economies from Japan to Britain and France kept long-dated borrowing costs pinned near multi-year highs.

Worries about Japan's fiscal position were revived after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's close aide said he intended to resign from his post, pushing Japan's 30-year government bond yield to a record high well above 3%.

That came a day after borrowing costs, which set the tone for lending rates for corporates and consumers, rose sharply in France and Britain while sterling tumbled, too.

"The economic reforms needed to really cover increasing debt are lacking, and the capital market sees that," Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing said at a conference on Wednesday, referring to the selloff in long-dated bonds.

"That's why I always say that the capital market is a good reflection of the political reforms that need to be implemented. So we should take it as a bit of a warning and not just duck away and say that nothing will happen."

A reshuffle of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's top team of advisers on Monday renewed the focus on fiscal challenges given Britain's high levels of borrowing and slow growth. In France, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to lose a Sept. 8 confidence vote he called in an attempt to win backing for an unpopular debt-reduction plan.

The U.S. Treasury market, considered the bedrock of the global financial system, meanwhile has also seen pressure from worries about high debt, the impact of tariffs on inflation and concern about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Britain's 30-year gilt yields briefly touched their highest since 1998 at around 5.75% and were last down 7 basis points on the day as some stability returned to bond markets.

Speaking to a parliamentary committee on Wednesday, Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey said it was important not to put too much emphasis on 30-year borrowing costs as such long-dated bonds are not currently being used to raise funds.

Euro area bond yields fell too, although French 30-year borrowing costs held close to their highest levels since 2009 and German equivalents were near 14-year peaks.

 

PRESSURE EVERYWHERE

Rising yields are a headache for governments that face higher spending needs and already hefty debt-servicing costs, just as they prepare to issue more bonds and face political obstacles to their efforts to get budget deficits down.

Britain said on Wednesday it would deliver its budget on November 26, as investors continue to speculate about tax rises that could dampen economic growth.

U.S. 30-year Treasury yields meanwhile touched the closely watched 5% level that investors reckon hurts risk assets for the first time since mid-July.

When a bond's yield rises, its price falls.

Analysts said that fears the U.S. government may have to give up revenue from tariffs if they are deemed illegal have added to the pressure in the Treasury market.

"The current dynamic is further evidence that investor appetite for ultra-long paper clearly waned, not only from private investors but also from institutional players who typically provide a more stable demand base for this segment," said Dario Messi, head of fixed income research at Julius Baer.

Markets nevertheless calmed down as London trade progressed, with euro zone bond yields last lower on the day. U.S. and UK 30-year yields having retreated from their highs.

A hefty pace of bond sales this week had pressured markets on Tuesday, analysts noted.

Fred Repton, portfolio manager at Neuberger, said Tuesday marked a record day for European bond sales just after investors had ramped up their bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.

While that was likely a key driver of Tuesday's selloff, "market participants are again focused on deficits and political risk, and this theme is likely to continue far into the year," he said.

Translation

從東京到倫敦，債券投資人對財政紀律的擔憂令市場緊張不安

倫敦/東京（路透）— 週三，全球最大的幾個債券市場略顯平靜，但對從日本到英國和法國等大型經濟體財政健康狀況的擔憂，導致長期借貸成本維持在多年高點附近。

首相石破茂的親信表示有意辭職，這導致日本30年期公債殖利率升至遠超3%的歷史高位，再次引發了人們對日本財政狀況的擔憂。

此前一天，法國和英國的借貸成本大幅上升，而這借貸成本為企業和消費者的利率奠定基調，英鎊也大幅下跌。

德意志銀行首席執行官 Christian Sewing 週三在一次會議上就長期債券拋售表示： “我們缺乏真正處理不斷增長的債務而所需的經濟改革，資本市場也看到了這一點。”

“這就是為什麼我總是說，資本市場能夠很好地反映需要實施的政治改革。所以我們應該把它當作一個警示，而不是躲避，說什麼都不會發生。”

英國首相 Keir Starmer 的高級顧問團隊週一改組，鑑於英國的高借貸水平和緩慢的增長，人們再次關注財政挑戰。在法國，總理Francois Bayrou 預計將在9月8日的信任投票中落敗，他此前試圖為一項不受歡迎的減債計劃去贏取支持。

同時，被視為全球金融體系基石的美國國債市場也面臨著來自高債務擔憂、關稅對通膨的影響以及對聯邦儲備局獨立性的擔憂的壓力。

英國30年期英國公債殖利率一度觸及1998年以來的最高水平，約為5.75%，當日下跌7個基點，因債券市場有些回穩。

英格蘭銀行行長 Andrew Bailey 週三在國會一委員會發表演說時表示，重要的是不要過度強調30年期借款成本，因為目前此類長期債券並未用於融資。

歐元區公債殖利率也出現下跌，儘管法國30年期借款成本接近2009年以來的最高水平，德國30年期借款成本接近14年來的最高水準。

 

壓力無所不在

殖利率上升對那些面臨更高支出需求, 和面對本已高昂的償債成本的政府來說是一個令人頭疼的問題，而就在這時刻, 他們準備發行更多債券, 並準備去減低預算赤字而面臨政治阻力。

英國週三宣布將於11月26日公佈預算案，投資人仍在猜測英國增稅措施可能抑制經濟成長。

同時，美國30年期公債殖利率觸及備受關注的5%水平，投資人認為這是自7月中旬以來首次觸及該水平，對風險資產構成打擊。

債券收益率上升，價格下跌。

分析師表示，擔心美國政府如果關稅被視為非法，可能不得不放棄相關收入，加劇了美國國債市場的壓力。

Julius Baer固定收益研究主管Dario Messi表示: 「目前的情況進一步證明，投資者對超長期債券的興趣明顯減弱，不僅私人投資者，機構投資者也同樣如此，而機構投資者通常為這一領域提供較穩定的需求基礎」。

不過，隨著倫敦交易的進行，市場趨於平靜，歐元區債券殖利率當日持續走低。美國和英國30年期公債殖利率已從高點回落。

分析師指出，本週債券發行速度之快給週二的市場帶來了壓力。

Neuberger投資組合經理人Fred Repton 表示，週二創下了歐洲債券發行紀錄，而此前投資者加大了對聯儲局會降息的押注。

雖然這可能是周二拋售的主要驅動因素，但他表示: 「市場參與者再次關注赤字和政治風險，而這個主題可能會持續到今年年底」。

So, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yields have touched the closely watched 5% level. Analysts say that fears over the U.S. government may have to give up revenue from tariffs if they are deemed illegal by the court have added to the pressure over the Treasury market. Probable, market participants will continue to focus on deficits and political risk, and this theme is likely to continue until the year end. Apparently, some kind of  economic reforms are needed to deal with the increasing debts in many countries.