中國資本外流在開放過程中創下新高

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China’s Capital Outflows Hit Record Amid Liberalization Push

Bloomberg News

August 17, 2025 2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- China’s capital outflows rose to a record in July, driven by mainland investors’ aggressive buying of Hong Kong assets following new market liberalization measures.

Domestic banks wired a net $58.3 billion of funds overseas on behalf of their clients for securities investment last month, according to data released late Friday by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. That’s the highest monthly outflow since records began in 2010.

The steeper capital outflow was partially attributable to mainland investors’ hefty buying of Hong Kong stocks this year and the July expansion of the Southbound Bond Connect program that allows more offshore debt investments. Meanwhile, foreign funds continued trimming their holdings of Chinese bonds, likely due to their diminishing relative appeal compared with riskier assets and global alternatives.

China is expected to tolerate some capital outflows this year, leveraging a weak-dollar environment to gradually liberalize its capital account — a step aimed at helping the yuan’s long-term globalization. In June, regulators raised the amount of money that approved investors can allocate into overseas assets for the first time in more than a year.

Onshore investors bought 12.6 billion yuan ($1.8 billion) of overseas debt through the Southbound Bond Connect in July, the highest monthly total this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The increase followed the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s early July announcement expanding access to the channel for Chinese non-bank financial institutions, including securities firms, fund companies, insurers and wealth managers.

Outbound investment through approved channels will likely continue to grow this year as “domestic investors reconsider their portfolio amid improving risk appetite,” said Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING Bank NV. While the outflows may initially seem to pressure the yuan, actual risks are likely contained due to anticipated US interest rate cuts and a narrower China-US yield gap, he said.

Offshore institutions’ holdings of Chinese bonds in the interbank market dropped about 300 billion yuan in July to the lowest since January 2024, data from the People’s Bank of China show. The decline suggests overseas funds joined a broader selloff of debt, influenced by easing US-China trade tensions and Beijing’s efforts to combat deflation.

The fading appeal of Chinese negotiable certificates of deposits — a once-popular trade that attracted foreign funds — is also contributing to broader bond outflows. Foreign holdings of NCDs fell by about 15% in July — or by 167 billion yuan — a third straight month of accelerated declines.

Translation

中國資本外流在開放過程中創下新高

（彭博）－ 在新的市場開放措施出台後, 受內地投資者大舉購入香港資產的推動，中國7月份資本外流創下新高。

根據國家外匯管理局週五晚間公佈的數據，上月國內銀行代表客戶向海外淨匯出583億美元資金用於證券投資。這是自2010年有記錄以來的最高月度資本外流。

資本外流加劇的部分原因是內地投資者今年大舉購入香港股票，以及7月「南向通」計劃的擴大，允許更多境外債務投資。與此同時，外國基金繼續減持中國債券，這可能是因為相比與風險較高的資產, 和全球另類投資，中國債券的吸引力正在下降。

中國預計今年將容忍一定程度的資本外流，利用弱勢美元環境去逐步開放其資本帳 - 此舉旨在促進人民幣的長期全球化。今年6月，監管機構一年多來首次提高了認可投資者可配置海外資產的資金規模。

根據彭博社彙編的數據，7月份，境內投資人透過「南向債券通」購買了126億元人民幣（約18億美元）的海外債券，創下今年單月最高紀錄。先前，香港金融管理局於7月初宣布，將擴大包括證券公司、基金公司、保險公司和財富管理公司在內的中國非銀行金融機構去使用該渠道。

荷蘭國際集團（ING Bank NV）大中華區首席經濟學家 Lynn Song 表示，由於 “改善了願意承擔風險的程度，國內投資者正在重新考慮其投資組合” ，通過獲批渠道進行的對外投資今年可能將繼續增長。他表示，儘管資金外流最初可能看似對人民幣構成壓力，但由於預期美國降息以及中美殖利率差距收窄，實際風險是可控的。

中國人民銀行的數據顯示，7月份，境外機構在銀行間市場持有的中國債券減少了約 3,000億元人民幣，降至2024年1月以來的最低水準。這一下降表明，受中美貿易緊張局勢緩和以及中國政府對抗通貨緊縮措施的影響，海外資金加入了更廣泛的債券拋售浪潮。

中國可轉讓存款證（曾是吸引外國資金的熱門交易）的吸引力下降，也導致了更廣泛的債券資金外流。 7月份，外國持有的可轉讓存款證減少了約15%，即1670億元人民幣，連續第三個月加速下降。

              So, China’s capital outflows rose to a record in July, driven by mainland investors’ aggressive buying of Hong Kong assets following new market liberalization measures. One factor for this outflow is due to anticipated US interest rate cuts and a narrower China-US yield gap. Probably China is expected to tolerate some capital outflows this year; a step aims at helping the yuan’s long-term globalization.

Note:

1. Negotiable certificates of deposits (NCD) (可轉讓存款證)are financial instruments issued by banks that allow depositors to earn interest over a fixed term while also being transferable to other parties, making them 'negotiable'.