中國用2022年以來最快的速度增加預算支出

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Ratchets Up Budget Spending at Fastest Pace Since 2022

Bloomberg News

Updated Tue, August 19, 2025 at 10:59 p.m. PDT·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- China’s broad fiscal spending expanded at the fastest pace in almost three years, pushing the deficit to another record as the government steers an economy grappling with weakening demand and higher tariffs.

Total expenditure rose 9.3% to 21.5 trillion yuan ($3 trillion) in the first seven months of 2025 from a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data released by the Finance Ministry on Tuesday. That’s the fastest increase since August 2022.

As a result, the broad fiscal gap reached 5.6 trillion yuan in the January-July period, with the shortfall widening 49% from a year ago.

Faster fiscal stimulus — which includes everything from infrastructure spending to civil servants’ salaries — didn’t translate into quicker economic growth in July, when activities recorded an unexpectedly sharp slowdown.

Authorities blamed extreme weather that disrupted construction, while local governments experienced a temporary funding shortage for their program of consumer subsidies.

The government’s focus is tilting toward social welfare from infrastructure, which last month may have contributed to the biggest contraction in overall investment since early 2020.

Government spending that covers social outlays in areas like education expanded at a faster clip in July from June. Huatai Securities estimates that expenditure on social security and employment as well as public health grew in double digits year-on-year.

Meanwhile, infrastructure spending fell 3.6% from a year ago in July, extending from the 9.9% drop a month ago, according to GF Securities. Apart from weather disruptions, there may be a lag in the allocation of central government funds for major construction projects, analysts from GF Securities said in a report Tuesday.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

 “Should the economy slow noticeably, there could be some modest additional stimulus, potentially in the form of frontloading government bond issuance for 2026. Indeed, the weak growth momentum in July, should it continue, points to that possibility.”

 — David Qu and Chang Shu.

Authorities may need to inject additional fiscal stimulus later this year to cushion the economy from the worsening property market, US tariffs and the negative impact on growth from the government’s “anti-involution” campaign that targets overcapacity, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“To ensure stable growth and employment into next year, we maintain our view that additional fiscal expansion may be needed towards year-end,” Goldman Sachs economists including Wang Lisheng said in a report.

The broad spending combines outlays under the general budget, which mainly include everyday allocations, with expenditure in the government fund budget, which is weighted more toward capital investment projects.

Total income in China’s two main fiscal books was almost unchanged from a year ago in the first seven months. Tax revenue fell 0.3% from a year ago, narrowing its decline from June.

The decline in land sales narrowed in the first seven months from the first half of the year, supported by premium land parcels recently sold in some of the biggest cities at record prices.

Translation

中國用2022年以來最快的速度增加預算支出

（彭博）— 中國廣泛的財政支出在近三年以最高速擴大，在政府努力應對需求疲軟和關稅上升的經濟情勢之際，赤字再創新高。

彭博社根據財政部週二公佈的數據計算得出，2025年首七個月，中國總支出年增9.3%，達到21.5兆元（約3兆美元）。這是2022年8月以來的最快增幅。

因此，1-7月廣泛財政支出缺口達到人民幣5.6兆元，缺口較上年同期擴大了49%。

較快速的財政刺激措施（涵蓋從基礎建設支出到公務員薪資等方方面面）並未在7月轉化為更快的經濟成長，經濟活動出乎意料地急劇放緩。

當局將原因歸咎於極端天氣擾亂了建築施工，而地方政府的消費者補貼計劃也暫時出現了資金短缺。

政府的重點正從基礎建設轉向社會福利，上個月基礎建設可能是導致整體投資出現2020年初以來最大降幅的原因之一。

涵蓋教育等領域社會支出的7月份政府支出較6月份以更快的速度增大。Huatai證券估計，社會安全、就業和公共衛生支出較去年同期有兩位數的增長。

同時，GF Securities 的數據顯示，7月基礎建設支出較去年同期下降3.6%，延續了上個月9.9%的降幅。GF Securities 分析師在周二的一份報告中指出，除了天氣因素外，中央政府對重大建設項目的資金撥付可能存在滯後現象。

彭博經濟評論說…

“如果經濟明顯放緩，可能會出台一些溫和的額外刺激措施，有可能提前發行2026年的國債。事實上， 7月份疲軟的增長勢頭, 如果持續下去，就表明了這種可能性。”

—David Qu 和 Chang Shu。

高盛集團表示，當局可能需要在今年稍後注入額外的財政刺激措施，以緩解房地產市場惡化、美國關稅以及政府針對產能過剩的「反內捲」運動對經濟成長的負面影響。

高盛經濟學家包括 Wang Lisheng 在內的在一份報告中表示: 「為了確保明年經濟和就業穩定，我們仍然認為年底前可能需要進一步擴大財政支出」。

廣泛支出支出包括一般預算支出（主要包括日常支出）,及政府基金預算支出（更側重於資本投資項目）。

今年頭七個月，中國兩主要財務帳簿收益與去年同期大致持平。稅收收入年減0.3%，降幅較6月有所收窄。

受近期一些大城市優質地塊以創紀錄的價格售出所支撐，今年頭七個月賣地金額下跌較上半年有所收窄。

So, China’s broad fiscal spending expanded at the fastest pace in almost three years, pushing the deficit to another record as the government steers an economy grappling with weakening demand and higher tariffs. Apparently, China wants to ensure stable growth and employment by increasing its spending.