中國一位頂級經濟學家剛剛說了很多人已懷疑的事：中國官方GDP數據可能不準確

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A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate

Business Insider - Huileng Tan

Thu, December 12, 2024 at 11:16 p.m. PST·3 min read

A Chinese economist said China's official GDP figures may be higher than actual numbers.

He said China's GDP is likely to grow between 3% and 4% in the next three to five years, but the official number is likely to remain at around 5%.

China faces economic challenges including a real-estate crisis and high youth unemployment.

A prominent Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate.

"We do not know the true number of China's real growth figure and maybe some other numbers," Gao Shanwen, the chief economist at SDIC Securities, said on Thursday.

Many people speculate that "after the pandemic, those numbers may not be so accurate," he said at an event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. Gao previously advised the country's policymakers.

Gao said China's GDP probably averaged around 2% in the last two to three years even though the official number is "close to 5%," Gao said.

"If my speculation is correct, I think it might be more reasonable to expect a growth rate between 3% to 4% in the years to come, for the next three to five years," Gao said. "But we know, and I think, the official number will always be around 5%."

China reported 5.2% GDP growth last year and has a growth target of "around 5%" this year — which economists said is ambitious.

While there have been longstanding doubts over the veracity of China's GDP data, one economist explained to Business Insider in 2022 that the headline GDP figure is "systematically inflated" due to how it's calculated and that it's unlikely the central government in Beijing manipulates numbers.

Chinese youth are 'tightening their belts and eating noodles with the lights off'

Gao came under the spotlight recently for making comments at an investor conference about "lifeless" Chinese youths. Chinese censors have since taken the speech off the internet.

In the speech, Gao said his analysis of regional data showed that the younger the population of a province is, the slower its consumption growth.

China is now "full of vibrant old people, lifeless young people and middle-aged people in despair," Gao added.

"Young people are tightening their belts and eating noodles with the lights off," Gao said.

Gao's assessments of China's economy come as the country struggles to recover from pandemic lockdowns.

The world's second-largest economy is facing multiple issues, including a real-estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation.

China's economy has been holding up this year thanks to robust exports — but the country's consumer demand has been dismal due to poor consumer confidence. Many people are trading down for cheaper purchases.

China's economy is still struggling to recover from the pandemic

On Thursday, Xinhua state news agency reported that top Chinese officials pledged to loosen monetary policy, increase the budget deficit, and issue more debt to boost consumption and maintain stable economic growth.

China's top leaders also pledged to "vigorously boost consumption" and domestic demand "on all fronts," per Xinhua, citing the two-day Central Economic Work Conference led by Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week.

China's new pledges and measures to shore up its flagging economy did not excite investors, especially since they were short on details, analysts said.

China's benchmark CSI300 Index was 1.8% lower at midday while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.7%.

"Due to the property meltdown, the fiscal crisis and worsening tensions with the US, China's economy is not in a normal downcycle, so it may take much more than a 'bazooka' stimulus package to truly reboot the economy," Nomura economists wrote in a note on Friday.

Translation

中國一位頂級經濟學家剛剛說了很多人已懷疑的事：中國官方GDP數據可能不準確

一位中國經濟學家表示，中國官方GDP數據可能高於實際數據。

他表示，未來三到五年，中國GDP可能成長3%至4%，但官方數字可能維持在5%左右。

中國面臨房地產危機和青年失業率高等經濟挑戰。

一位中國著名經濟學家剛剛說出了許多人有所的懷疑：中國的官方GDP數據可能不準確。

國投證券首席經濟學家高善文週四表示，“我們不知道中國實際增長的真實數字，及其他一些數字。”

他在華盛頓特區彼得森國際經濟研究所主辦的活動上表示，許多人猜測「疫情大流行之後，這些數字可能不會那麼準確」。高先生先前曾為中國的政策制定者提供建議。

高說，儘管官方數字“接近5%”，但過去兩三年中國GDP的平均成長率可能約為2%。

高說：“如果我的猜測是正確的，我認為未來三到五年的成長率預計在3%到4%之間可能更合理”; “但我們知道，而且我認為官方數字將始終會在 5% 左右。”

中國去年的GDP成長率為5.2%，今年的成長目標為「5%左右」- 經濟學家稱這個目標雄心勃勃。

儘管長期以來人們對中國GDP 數據的準確性存在懷疑，但一位經濟學家在2022 年向《商業內幕》解釋說，由於計算方式的原因，總體GDP 數據“系統性地被誇大了”，且北京中央政府不太可能操縱數據。

中國年輕人“勒緊褲頭，關燈後吃麵條”

高最近因在一次投資者會議上發表有關「死氣沉沉」的中國年輕人的言論而受到關注。此後，中國審查機構已將這篇演講從網路上刪除。

高在演講中表示，他對地區數據的分析表明，一個省份的人口越年輕，其消費成長就越慢。

高補充說，中國現在「充滿了充滿活力的老年人、毫無生氣的年輕人和絕望的中年人」。

高說:「年輕人開始勒緊褲頭，關燈後吃麵條」。

在高先生對中國經濟作出評估之際，中國正努力從病毒大流行的封鎖中恢復過來。

這個世界第二大經濟體正面臨多重問題，包括房地產危機、青年失業率高和通貨緊縮。

由於出口強勁，中國經濟今年一直維持堅挺，但由於消費者信心不佳，中國的消費需求一直低迷。許多人正在以低價購買更便宜的商品。

中國經濟仍在掙扎從疫情中恢復

週四，新華社報道稱，中國高級官員承諾放鬆貨幣政策，增加預算赤字，發行更多債務刺激消費，維持經濟穩定成長。

據新華社報道，本週由中國領導人習近平主持召開的為期兩天的中央經濟工作會議，中國最高領導人還承諾“全方位”“大力促進消費”和內需。

分析師表示，中國提振疲軟經濟的新承諾和措施並沒有令投資人興奮，特別是因為他們缺乏細節。

中國基準滬深300指數午盤下跌1.8%，香港恆生指數下跌1.7%。

野村證券經濟學家在報告中寫道：「由於房地產崩盤、財政危機以及與美國的緊張關係不斷惡化，中國經濟並未處於一般的下行週期，因此，要真正重新啟動經濟，可能需要的不僅僅是 '火箭筒' 式刺激計劃」。

              So, Dr. Gao Shanwen, a Chinese economist has said that China's official GDP figures may be higher than actual numbers. Gao notes that China is now "full of vibrant old people, lifeless young people and middle-aged people in despair". If his observation is true, it seems that Chinese youth will still face a hard time in the coming years unless China reboots its economy.

 

Note:

1. Dr. Gao Shanwen (高善文博士) is the chief economist of SDIC Securities, an industry mentor at Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance, editor and academic committee member of "Tsinghua Financial Review". He is also a member of the Academic Committee of the China Finance 40 Forum and the China Chief Economist Forum.