Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:
Russia’s Wartime Economic Woes Slow Railway Trade With
China (1/2)
Bloomberg News
Sun, December 22, 2024 at 8:00 p.m. PST·4 min read
(Bloomberg) -- Russia faces increasing difficulty shipping
commodities to China through its vast eastern rail network, a sign of the
growing economic challenges stemming from war and sanctions, despite the
Kremlin’s assurances that all is well.
Russian Railways JSC — the state-owned carrier responsible for all rail transport throughout the country — last week approved a 30% cut in its investment program for next year amid soaring borrowing costs, news agency Tass reported, citing the transportation minister.
The railway “is experiencing its deepest slump since the 2008-09 crisis this year, and the trend is still going strong,” Moscow-based MMI Research said in a Telegram post this month. “We assume that this is due to both the needs of the army — loading the network with priority cargo — and the worsening problems with the rolling stock.”
Russian Railways didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The situation underscores the strains within Russia as the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine approaches its third full year. The central bank on Friday kept its key interest rate at a record 21% as it seeks to cool an overheated economy, which President Vladimir Putin has said is in sound condition.
Fabled Railway
For Russian Railways, the picture is not so rosy. The carrier, which often used to borrow in public markets for investment, has now been largely closed off to them due to sanctions. Government support is limited, as Moscow has re-prioritized its budget toward the war.
Russia shifted its trade in recent years toward Asia, placing greater reliance on the so-called Eastern Polygon rail network. Its 8,700 miles (14,000 kilometers) of track combine Russia’s two longest railroads — the fabled Trans-Siberian, linking Moscow to the Pacific Ocean, and the Baikal-Amur Mainline running from Siberia to the Far East.
“We see the problems of the Eastern Polygon,” Transportation Minister Roman Starovoit said on state television this month. “Infrastructure constraints, despite the increase in carrying capacity, still exist on the Baikal Amur and the Trans-Siberian Railway.”
(to be continued)
Translation
俄羅斯戰時經濟困境導致與中國的鐵路貿易放緩
(1/2)
(彭博)—俄羅斯透過其龐大的東部鐵路網絡向中國運送商品面臨越來越大的困難,這表明戰爭和制裁帶來的經濟挑戰日益嚴峻,儘管克里姆林宮保證一切都很好。
根據塔斯社引述交通部長報道稱,由於借貸成本飆升,負責全國所有鐵路運輸的國有運輸的俄羅斯鐵路股份公司 (JSC)上週批准將明年的投資計劃削減 30%。
與戰爭相關的貨物的增加也加劇了現有的瓶頸,而制裁則給跨境支付帶來壓力。這些因素加上長期的物流問題,正在減緩煤炭和鋁等貨物的運輸。
總部位於莫斯科的 MMI Research 在本月的 Telegram 貼文中表示,該鐵路「今年正在經歷自 2008-09 年危機以來最嚴重的衰退,而且趨勢仍然強勁」;「我們認為這是由於軍隊的需求(向網絡裝載優先貨物)以及火車和車廂問題日益惡化造成的」。
俄羅斯鐵路公司沒有回應置評請求。
隨著克里姆林宮在烏克蘭的戰爭進入第三年,這種情況凸顯了俄羅斯內部的緊張局勢。俄羅斯央行週五將關鍵利率維持在創紀錄的 21%,以尋求讓過熱的經濟降溫,俄羅斯總統普京 (Vladimir Putin) 表示,經濟狀況良好。
普京在 12 月 19 日的年度電話會議上表示:「一切都以經濟為基礎」。儘管有任何外部威脅和制裁“情況是正常、穩定” 。但他補充說通貨膨脹是“令人擔憂”,今年 GDP 可能增長 4% 左右 - 高於許多西方國家 - 而失業率是在歷史新低。
傳奇的鐵路
對於俄羅斯鐵路公司來說,情況就沒那麼樂觀。該公司過去經常在公開市場上借款進行投資,但由於制裁,現在基本上已與公開市場斷絕。政府的支持是有限的,因為莫斯科已經重新調整成戰爭優先的預算。
近年來,俄羅斯將貿易轉向亞洲,更依賴所謂的東部多邊形鐵路網。其全長 8,700 英里(14,000 公里)的軌道將俄羅斯兩條最長的鐵路連接起來 - 傳奇的連接莫斯科和太平洋的西伯利亞鐵路,以及從西伯利亞延伸到遠東的幹線Baikal-Amur Mainline 鐵路 (BAM)。
該網路長期以來一直受到加載延遲和基礎設施效率低下的困擾,但現在它的壓力進一步加大。向亞洲的轉向增加了往返俄羅斯的運輸量,對軌道空間的需求遠遠超出了系統的處理能力 - 儘管升級花費了數十億美元。
交通部長Roman Starovoit本月在國家電視台上表示:「我們看到了東部多邊形的問題」。 「儘管運載能力有所增加,但Baikal Amur和西伯利亞鐵路仍然存在基礎設施限制」。
(待續)
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